大气污染对降雨的抑制作用

大气中悬浮的亚微米级粒子与日益积累的温室气体一样，对全球气候有重要的影响。与温室效应相反，气溶胶的影响是导致全球降温。Rosenfeld于2000年提供的卫星监测数据证明，气溶胶污染对降雨有抑制作用。     

Phytoremediation of landfill leachate

Leachate emissions from landfill sites are of concern, primarily due to their toxic impact when released unchecked into the environment, and the potential for landfill sites to generate leachate for many hundreds of years following closure. Consequently, economically and environmentally sustainable disposal options are a priority in waste management. One potential option is the use of soil-plant based remediation schemes. In many cases, using either trees (including short rotation coppice) or grassland, phytoremediation of leachate has been successful. However, there are a significant number of examples where phytoremediation has failed. Typically, this failure can be ascribed to excessive leachate application and poor management due to a fundamental lack of understanding of the plant-soil system. On balance, with careful management, phytoremediation can be viewed as a sustainable, cost effective and environmentally sound option which is capable of treating 250m(3)ha(-1)yr(-1). However, these schemes have a requirement for large land areas and must be capable of responding to changes in leachate quality and quantity, problems of scheme establishment and maintenance, continual environmental monitoring and seasonal patterns of plant growth. Although the fundamental underpinning science is well understood, further work is required to create long-term predictive remediation models, full environmental impact assessments, a complete life-cycle analysis and economic analyses for a wide range of landfill scenarios.     

Assessing the population-level conservation effects of marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3–7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond their borders. A network of MPAs covering roughly 20% of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary was established in 2003, with a goal of providing regional conservation and fishery benefits. We used a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model and a Bayesian difference-in-difference regression to examine the conditions under which MPAs can provide population-level conservation benefits inside and outside their borders and to assess evidence of those benefits in the Channel Islands. As of 2017, we estimated that biomass densities of targeted fin-fish had a median value 81% higher (90% credible interval: 23–148) inside the Channel Island MPAs than outside. However, we found no clear effect of these MPAs on mean total biomass densities at the population level: estimated median effect was –7% (90% credible interval: –31 to 23) from 2015 to 2017. Our simulation model showed that effect sizes of MPAs of <30% were likely to be difficult to detect (even when they were present); smaller effect sizes (which are likely to be common) were even harder to detect. Clearly, communicating expectations and uncertainties around MPAs is critical to ensuring that MPAs are effective. We provide a novel assessment of the population-level effects of a large MPA network across many different species of targeted fin-fish, and our results offer guidance for communities charged with monitoring and adapting MPAs.     

Planetary Stewardship in an Urbanizing World: Beyond City Limits

Cities are rapidly increasing in importance as a major factor shaping the Earth system, and therefore, must take corresponding responsibility. With currently over half the world’s population, cities are supported by resources originating from primarily rural regions often located around the world far distant from the urban loci of use. The sustainability of a city can no longer be considered in isolation from the sustainability of human and natural resources it uses from proximal or distant regions, or the combined resource use and impacts of cities globally. The world’s multiple and complex environmental and social challenges require interconnected solutions and coordinated governance approaches to planetary stewardship. We suggest that a key component of planetary stewardship is a global system of cities that develop sustainable processes and policies in concert with its non-urban areas. The potential for cities to cooperate as a system and with rural connectivity could increase their capacity to effect change and foster stewardship at the planetary scale and also increase their resource security.     

Community Sustainability Plans to enable change towards sustainable practice – a Scottish case study

There is a need for a global shift towards a low-carbon society and this requires action at the local level. The aim of the study into sustainable community development is to clarify the role of a community as a whole rather than the role of individuals within that community. Mixed methods of literature review and empirical study have been used to translate the knowledge and experience with urban sustainable development into empirical knowledge of a rural, market town setting. The exemplary case study is the Scottish market town Huntly. The main findings of the study show the need for three ingredients for a Community Sustainability Plan for a town such as Huntly. Community involvement is crucial in developing such plans in a rural setting. Further research in more remote settings, e.g. coastal and island communities, is needed to allow broader conclusions on rural sustainable development.     

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr^?1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000–2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ～55 mW m^?2 (23–87 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005–78 mW m^?2 (38–139 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2–14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7–3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0–4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4–4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO₂ emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.     

Effect of Experimental Selective Logging on Tropical Butterflies

Abstract: I investigated the effects of an experimental selective logging regime on the assemblage of fruit-feeding butterflies in replicated experimental plots in the Chiquibul Forest, Belize. Over a 12-month period, I caught 1187 individuals of 49 species using fruit-baited traps. Selective logging at densities of six stems per ha 3 years before the study had little effect on butterfly species richness, the abundance of individual species, or the shape of species-abundance distributions. There was no tendency for taxa with restricted geographical ranges to be particularly sensitive to selective logging. Mark-release-recapture results suggest that most butterflies move relatively short distances, but that some dispersal occurs between plots separated by distances of ≥1 km. The apparent similarity of the fruit-feeding butterfly assemblage in selectively logged and unlogged forest contrasts with previous studies of butterfly assemblages but mirrors results for birds in the same plots. A possible explanation is the high frequency of natural disturbance—hurricanes and associated fires—in the Chiquibul Forest. The species present appear to be adapted to naturally disturbed habitats and may therefore be relatively unaffected by selective logging. Local studies of the effects of selective logging must take into account the history of natural and human disturbance in the study area. The results support the case for "ecological forestry," in which sustainable management regimes work within the limits imposed by natural disturbance.     

An economic model of the US aluminium market

An economic model of the US aluminium industry is constructed and estimated with annual data over the period 1960–1978. The authors' analysis shows that both the short- and long-term price elasticities of demand are relatively low, and that demand is highly dependent on aluminium end-use activity. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken, and the errors of forecast calculated.