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Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3–7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond their borders. A network of MPAs covering roughly 20% of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary was established in 2003, with a goal of providing regional conservation and fishery benefits. We used a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model and a Bayesian difference-in-difference regression to examine the conditions under which MPAs can provide population-level conservation benefits inside and outside their borders and to assess evidence of those benefits in the Channel Islands. As of 2017, we estimated that biomass densities of targeted fin-fish had a median value 81% higher (90% credible interval: 23–148) inside the Channel Island MPAs than outside. However, we found no clear effect of these MPAs on mean total biomass densities at the population level: estimated median effect was –7% (90% credible interval: –31 to 23) from 2015 to 2017. Our simulation model showed that effect sizes of MPAs of <30% were likely to be difficult to detect (even when they were present); smaller effect sizes (which are likely to be common) were even harder to detect. Clearly, communicating expectations and uncertainties around MPAs is critical to ensuring that MPAs are effective. We provide a novel assessment of the population-level effects of a large MPA network across many different species of targeted fin-fish, and our results offer guidance for communities charged with monitoring and adapting MPAs.  相似文献   
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Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.  相似文献   
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We examined the ability of male green frogs to assess the size of an opponent based on the dominant frequency of their advertisement call, which is negatively correlated with size, using synthetic stimuli to simulate intruders of different sizes. In one field playback experiment, we broadcast a pair of stimuli representing a small and a large male; in a second experiment, we broadcast calls of a medium and a large male. In both experiments, males produced calls with significantly lower dominant frequencies in response to each stimulus. Contrast analyses revealed that males lowered the dominant frequency of their calls more in response to the large-male stimulus than in responses to the small- and medium-male stimuli. In the second experiment, males also responded to the large-male stimulus by calling at higher rates. There were no differences in mean note duration or the number of moves made toward or around the playback speaker in response to any stimulus. Thus, the frequency of an opponent's calls elicits a differential modification of calling behavior, primarily in the form of differential dominant frequency alteration, suggesting that males use dominant frequency to assess the size of opponents during aggressive encounters. Received: 17 April 1998 / Accepted after revision: 7 October 1998  相似文献   
55.
Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr?1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000–2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ~55 mW m?2 (23–87 mW m?2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005–78 mW m?2 (38–139 mW m?2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2–14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7–3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0–4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4–4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO2 emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.  相似文献   
56.
Steel production from electric arc furnaces has been continuously rising over the past few years. The trend is expected to continue due to both the anticipated increase in demand for steel, and to the replacement of obsolete open hearth furnaces. In 1972 steel produced in electric arc furnaces, which makes up 25 to 30% of the annual United States steel production, was produced primarily from recycled scrap steel in approximately 300 electric arc furnaces operated by 99 companies at 121 locations.1 Over half of these furnaces are smaller than 50 tons, and many are located in small bar mills producing a variety of merchant steel products.  相似文献   
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The mounting frequency and intensity of natural hazards, alongside growing interdependencies between social‐technical and ecological systems, are placing increased pressure on emergency management. This is particularly true at the strategic level of emergency management, which involves planning for and managing non‐routine, high‐consequence events. Drawing on the literature, a survey, and interviews and workshops with Australia's senior emergency managers, this paper presents an analysis of five core challenges that these pressures are creating for strategic‐level emergency management. It argues that emphasising ‘emergency management’ as a primary adaptation strategy is a retrograde step that ignores the importance of addressing socio‐political drivers of vulnerabilities. Three key suggestions are presented that could assist the country's strategic‐level emergency management in tackling these challenges: (i) reframe emergency management as a component of disaster risk reduction rather than them being one and the same; (ii) adopt a network governance approach; and (iii) further develop the capacities of strategic‐level emergency managers.  相似文献   
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60.
On enactment, both the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), 1970 of the US and the Resource Management Act (RMA), 1991 of New Zealand received accolades for innovativeness. However, is such praise justified when these acts are explored through the literature on policy innovation? This paper suggests that it is. More importantly, recognizing how different attributes of innovation contribute to having a policy adopted suggests what the crafters of future environmental policies might do well to consider. It is critical to attend to the political climate in which a policy is being drafted.  相似文献   
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