Approaches to Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Species: A Guide to Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.     

A risk-based screening approach for prioritizing contaminants and exposure pathways at Superfund sites

Contamination at Superfund sites can involve mixtures of chemicals and radionuclides in a variety of environmental media. Determining priorities for evaluation and remediation of various contaminants is an important part of the initial phases of any site investigation. An effective screening analysis at the beginning of the project can help by identifying both those situations in need of immediate remedial attention and those which require further sampling and evaluation. The screening approach discussed here is made up of two sets of calculations designed to provide upper- and lower-bound estimates of health risk to individuals likely to receive the highest exposures. This approach allows rapid identification of contaminants which pose a negligible risk and can be assigned a low priority for remedial attention or which pose a substantial risk and should be given the highest priority for appropriate remediation efforts. Contaminants designated as neither high- nor low-priority should be investigated in more detail prior to making decisions regarding the need for or method of remediation. The utility of this approach has already been demonstrated in the evaluation of contamination in the Clinch and Tennessee River systems originating from historical operations of atomic weapons and energy research facilities near Oak Ridge, Tennessee.     

Plant-mediated and nonadditive effects of two global change drivers on an insect herbivore community

Warmer temperatures can alter the phenology and distribution of individual species. However, differences across species may blur community-level phenological responses to climate or cause biotic homogenization by consistently favoring certain taxa. Additionally, the response of insect communities to climate will be subject to plant-mediated effects, which may or may not overshadow the direct effect of rising temperatures on insects. Finally, recent evidence for the importance of interaction effects between global change drivers suggests that phenological responses of communities to climate may be altered by other drivers. We used a natural temperature gradient (generated by elevation and topology), combined with experimental nitrogen fertilization, to investigate the effects of elevated temperature and globally increasing anthropogenic nitrogen deposition on the structure and phenology of a seminatural grassland herbivore assemblage (lepidopteran insects). We found that both drivers, alone and in combination, severely altered how the relative abundance and composition of species changed through time. Importantly, warmer temperatures were associated with biotic homogenization, such that herbivore assemblages in the warmest plots had more similar species composition than those in intermediate or cool plots. Changes in herbivore composition and abundance were largely mediated by changes in the plant community, with increased nonnative grass cover under high treatment levels being the strongest determinant of herbivore abundance. In addition to compositional changes, total herbivore biomass more than doubled under elevated nitrogen and increased more than fourfold with temperature, bearing important functional implications for herbivores as consumers and as a prey resource. The crucial role of nonnative plant dominance in mediating responses of herbivores to change, combined with the frequent nonadditive (positive and negative) effects of the two drivers, and the differential responses of species, highlight that understanding complex ecosystem responses will benefit from multifactor, multitrophic experiments at community scales or larger.     

Survey of land degradation in New South Wales,Australia

A survey of land degradation was undertaken in New South Wales, Australia during 1987–1988. The aims of the survey were to assess the location, extent, and severity of ten forms of degradation and to present the data in map and statistical form. Sample points were located on a regular grid. The method was designed so that data could be acquired from aerial photographs, expert local knowledge, and limited field checking. Individual statewide maps were prepared for each form of degradation. Map data were shown in pixel form. Sheet and rill erosion and soil structure decline were confined mostly to lands used for cropping. Gully erosion was commonly found across the state, while mass movement was confined to steeper lands. There were three severe areas of dryland salinity; irrigation salinity was mapped in parts of the southern irrigation lands. Induced soil acidity was severe in some cropping and pasture lands. Absence of tree regrowth was a noticeable feature of lands used for cropping. The survey enabled community awareness of the problems of land degradation to be increased, in addition to assisting regional land managers in resource allocation. The survey also provided the basis for the future location of sites that could be used to monitor the trends in the status of land degradation.     

Toward modeling regionally specific human security using GIS: case study Cambodia

A new methodology for measuring human security is presented. The three stages of the methodology are: i) threat assessment, ii) data collection and organization, and iii) data visualization and analysis, using Geographic Information Systems. Results from a Cambodia case study are highlighted. The United Nations Development Program's notion of human security, which gives equal weight to economic, health, food, political, personal, and environmental factors, is used. Country-specific threats in each category are determined, and local, spatially referenced data are collected. In this paper, poverty, dengue fever, and tuberculosis are used as examples of the analytic process. Regions of Cambodia exposed to all three of these threats ("hot spots") are located, and spatial correlation between poverty, dengue fever, and tuberculosis is calculated. The methodology i) advances a broad concept of human security, ii) will potentially assist policy and decision makers, and iii) identifies research questions that cannot be resolved using single-sector analysis.     

The dynamics of dissolved nitrogen in a blanket peat dominated catchment

Precipitation, soil solution and drainage water were collected from a blanket peat catchment at Moor House National Nature Reserve in the Northern Pennine Uplands, UK, an area of moderately high N deposition. Two tributaries of the main stream were also sampled. Between 1993 and 1995 samples were analysed for NH4+ and NO3- and for part of the period for organic N. Inputs of N in precipitation exceeded outputs in stream water. Organic N represented a small proportion of N inputs while inputs of inorganic N averaged 10.2 kg ha(-1) a(-1). Soil solution from 10 cm depth in the peat was dominated by organic N whereas at 50 cm NH4+ slightly exceeded organic N. NO3- was rarely detected at either depth except during a period of exceptionally warm and dry weather in 1995. Output fluxes in stream water of organic N (5.7 to 6.5 kg ha(-1) a(-1)) were much greater than those of inorganic N (0.6 to 2.2 kg ha(-1) a(-1)). Inorganic N in streams was predominantly NO3- except in the smallest stream which had the largest concentrations of NH4+. This suggests that N transformations, particularly nitrification, may be taking place in the mineral soils adjacent to the streams or within the stream channel of the larger catchment.     

The Surface Roughness of a Rubber Soling Material Determines the Coefficient of Friction on Water-Lubricated Surfaces

For more than a decade, evidence has been accumulating that points to the fact that the microscopic roughness of the footwear soling surface is a major determinant of slip-resistance on lubricated surfaces, but conclusive experimental proof has been lacking. This article describes an experiment in which five pairs of shoes were soled with the same rubber compound. Four of the pairs were abraded by different grades of grit to produce a range of roughness values. The coefficient of friction (CoF) of the five solings was then measured repeatedly by the walking traction method on wet surfaces including glazed wall tiles, vinyl asbestos coated with the wax floor polish, and both sides of a sheet of float glass. The Kruskal-Wallis statistical test proved beyond doubt that the soling roughness is a major factor in determining the CoF of this rubber soling material; p < 10⁻⁵. Nearly all of the grip was due to surface roughness of the soling material on these atypically smooth floors, although the surface roughness of the floors also had a significant effect on CoF; p < 0.003. Float glass is shown to be a promising reference floor material for the measurement of CoF of footwear; there was no statistical difference between results for the two sides of the glass sheet. Float glass could be used in the development of a standard CoF test method because new sheets of glass from the same manufacturer are identical and extremely smooth. The specification of CoF values for solings/floors combinations in lubricated conditions is of little value unless associated with roughness measurements and knowledge of how wear will affect the surface roughness of the sole. This article reports the first evidence that any specification of flooring by measuring CoF based on dry surfaces could lead to an increase in the number of injuries caused by slipping on the wet surfaces. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd