Development of a calibration system to evaluate VOC losses in a branch enclosure

Considerable uncertainties are associated with the experimental estimates of emission rates of different volatile organic compound (VOC) species from the biosphere to the atmosphere. Some of this uncertainty derives from the sampling and analytical procedures used in emission rate measurements. A calibration system was developed in order to evaluate possible errors in the measurements of biogenic emission rates using a branch enclosure system. Two types of calibration procedures were tested, a standard additions technique and an internal standard procedure. Both techniques were used to evaluate possible losses while sampling isoprene and monoterpenes, which are the most abundant VOCs of biogenic origin. The losses to Teflon lines and the empty sampling system were tested and losses to the branch enclosure system installed on two VOC emitting plant species were evaluated. A considerable loss of isoprene (approximately 18% of inflow concentration 65 ng l(-1)) to the empty enclosure system and to the system installed on the plant was measured, but no losses of monoterpenes were observed.     

Addressing challenges for future strategic‐level emergency management: reframing,networking, and capacity‐building

The mounting frequency and intensity of natural hazards, alongside growing interdependencies between social‐technical and ecological systems, are placing increased pressure on emergency management. This is particularly true at the strategic level of emergency management, which involves planning for and managing non‐routine, high‐consequence events. Drawing on the literature, a survey, and interviews and workshops with Australia's senior emergency managers, this paper presents an analysis of five core challenges that these pressures are creating for strategic‐level emergency management. It argues that emphasising ‘emergency management’ as a primary adaptation strategy is a retrograde step that ignores the importance of addressing socio‐political drivers of vulnerabilities. Three key suggestions are presented that could assist the country's strategic‐level emergency management in tackling these challenges: (i) reframe emergency management as a component of disaster risk reduction rather than them being one and the same; (ii) adopt a network governance approach; and (iii) further develop the capacities of strategic‐level emergency managers.     

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr^?1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000–2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ～55 mW m^?2 (23–87 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005–78 mW m^?2 (38–139 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2–14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7–3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0–4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4–4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO₂ emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.     

Effect of Experimental Selective Logging on Tropical Butterflies

Abstract: I investigated the effects of an experimental selective logging regime on the assemblage of fruit-feeding butterflies in replicated experimental plots in the Chiquibul Forest, Belize. Over a 12-month period, I caught 1187 individuals of 49 species using fruit-baited traps. Selective logging at densities of six stems per ha 3 years before the study had little effect on butterfly species richness, the abundance of individual species, or the shape of species-abundance distributions. There was no tendency for taxa with restricted geographical ranges to be particularly sensitive to selective logging. Mark-release-recapture results suggest that most butterflies move relatively short distances, but that some dispersal occurs between plots separated by distances of ≥1 km. The apparent similarity of the fruit-feeding butterfly assemblage in selectively logged and unlogged forest contrasts with previous studies of butterfly assemblages but mirrors results for birds in the same plots. A possible explanation is the high frequency of natural disturbance—hurricanes and associated fires—in the Chiquibul Forest. The species present appear to be adapted to naturally disturbed habitats and may therefore be relatively unaffected by selective logging. Local studies of the effects of selective logging must take into account the history of natural and human disturbance in the study area. The results support the case for "ecological forestry," in which sustainable management regimes work within the limits imposed by natural disturbance.     

Prenatal counselling and diagnosis in progressively deforming osteogenesis imperfecta: A case of autosomal dominant transmission

A 21 -year-old woman with progressively deforming or type III osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) presented for prenatal counselling and diagnosis at 10 weeks' gestation. Family history was non-contributory. At 14.8 weeks' gestation, ultrasonographic examination revealed fetal skeletal hypomineralization, easily compressible fetal cranium, and thickened long bones, indicating that the fetus was also affected. Confirmation of the prenatal diagnosis of OI type III was made following a Caesarean section birth of a male infant with multiple skeletal deformities and blue sclerae implying, in this case, autosomal dominant inheritance.     

An economic model of the US aluminium market

An economic model of the US aluminium industry is constructed and estimated with annual data over the period 1960–1978. The authors' analysis shows that both the short- and long-term price elasticities of demand are relatively low, and that demand is highly dependent on aluminium end-use activity. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken, and the errors of forecast calculated.     

Assessing the population-level conservation effects of marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3–7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond their borders. A network of MPAs covering roughly 20% of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary was established in 2003, with a goal of providing regional conservation and fishery benefits. We used a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model and a Bayesian difference-in-difference regression to examine the conditions under which MPAs can provide population-level conservation benefits inside and outside their borders and to assess evidence of those benefits in the Channel Islands. As of 2017, we estimated that biomass densities of targeted fin-fish had a median value 81% higher (90% credible interval: 23–148) inside the Channel Island MPAs than outside. However, we found no clear effect of these MPAs on mean total biomass densities at the population level: estimated median effect was –7% (90% credible interval: –31 to 23) from 2015 to 2017. Our simulation model showed that effect sizes of MPAs of <30% were likely to be difficult to detect (even when they were present); smaller effect sizes (which are likely to be common) were even harder to detect. Clearly, communicating expectations and uncertainties around MPAs is critical to ensuring that MPAs are effective. We provide a novel assessment of the population-level effects of a large MPA network across many different species of targeted fin-fish, and our results offer guidance for communities charged with monitoring and adapting MPAs.     

Improving Conservation of Florida Manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris): Conceptualization and Contributions Toward a Regional Warm-Water Network Management Strategy for Sustainable Winter Habitat

We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.     

Community Sustainability Plans to enable change towards sustainable practice – a Scottish case study

There is a need for a global shift towards a low-carbon society and this requires action at the local level. The aim of the study into sustainable community development is to clarify the role of a community as a whole rather than the role of individuals within that community. Mixed methods of literature review and empirical study have been used to translate the knowledge and experience with urban sustainable development into empirical knowledge of a rural, market town setting. The exemplary case study is the Scottish market town Huntly. The main findings of the study show the need for three ingredients for a Community Sustainability Plan for a town such as Huntly. Community involvement is crucial in developing such plans in a rural setting. Further research in more remote settings, e.g. coastal and island communities, is needed to allow broader conclusions on rural sustainable development.