Utility of dynamics as indicators of stress in population models

The relationships between the dynamics of environmentally and chemically stressed populations and indicators of the effects of the stressor are explored in a model framework. The physiologically structured population, represented by a system of McKendrick–von Foerster hyperbolic partial differential equations, includes the dynamics of numerous individuals distinguished by ecotype. Chemical uptake of nonpolar narcotics is modeled by first order kinetics. Classical methodologies, frequency analysis and phase space reconstruction, are explored in a search for indicators of magnitude of stress. When these techniques proved generally unsuccessful for the objective of indicator selection in our model setting, summary statistics, as related to bifurcation diagrams, were constructed and appear more useful as indicators. It is concluded that physiological structures generally lead to more feasible measurable indicators of magnitude of stress than do specifics of population dynamics.     

Fractionation of heavy metals and phosphorus in suspended sediments of the Yamuna river,India

The Yamuna river is the largest tributary of the Ganges river system. It originates in the Himalayas and flows through a varied geological terrain encompassing a large basin area. Metals Fe, Mn, Pb, Zn, Cu in different chemical fractions of suspended sediments such as exchangeable, carbonates, Fe–Mn oxides, organics and residual fractions were studied. Phosphorus associated with different chemical forms are discussed. The metals are mostly associated with residual fractions in the sediments followed by organics, Fe–Mn oxides, exhangeable and carbonates. Intensive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in agriculture in the basin affects the high inorganic phosphorus content in sediments.     

Risk assessment of water pollutants

The sources of toxic xenobiotics and different factors such as ecological diversity, differences in comparative anatomy, physiology and biochemistry, food chain variation, interrelationship within species and life span, etc., are considered during risk assessment of pollutants, and their impact on aquatic ecotoxicology is identified. A fugacity and multimedia compartment model is suggested, based on toxicodynamic (toxicity of the chemical) and toxicokinetic (metabolism of the chemical) considerations to predict and screen the behaviour of pollutants quantitatively in the aquatic environment. The significance of the risk analysis approach in anticipatory actions and regulation of pollution levels is discussed.     

Monitoring the condition of the Canadian forest environment: The relevance of the concept of ‘ecological indicators’

The Canadian forest environment is characterized by high spatial and temporal variability, especially in the west. Our forests vary according to climate, landform, and surficial geology, and according to the type, intensity, extent of, and the time since the last disturbance. Most Canadian forests have had a history of repeated acute, episodic disturbance from fire, insects, wind, diseases and/or logging, with a frequency of disturbance varying from a few decades to many centuries. These sources of variability have resulted in a complex and continually changing mosaic of forest conditions and stages of successional development.Monitoring the quality of this dynamic forested landscape mosaic is extremely difficult, and in most cases the concept of a relatively simple index of forest ecosystem quality or condition (i.e. an ecological indicator) is probably inappropriate. Such ecological indicators are better suited for monitoring chronic anthropogenically induced disturbances that are continuous in their effect (e.g. acid rain, heavy metal pollution, air pollution, and the greenhouse effect) in ecosystems that, in the absence of such chronic disturbance, exhibit very slow directional change (e.g. lakes, higher order streams and rivers). Monitoring the effects of a chronic anthropogenic disturbance to forest ecosystems to determine if it is resulting in a sustained, directional alteration of environmental quality will require a definition of the expected pattern of episodic disturbance and recovery therefrom (i.e. patterns of secondary succession in the absence of the chronic disturbance). Only when we have such a temporal fingerprint of forest ecosystem condition for normal patterns of disturbance and recovery can we determine if the ecosystem condition is being degraded by chronic human-induced alteration of the environment. Thus, degradation is assessed in terms of deviations from the expected temporal pattern of conditions rather than in terms of an instantaneous assessment of any particular condition. The concept of ecological rotation (the time for a given ecosystem to recover from a given disturbance back to some defined successional condition) is useful in the definition of these temporal fingerprints. This requires information on the intensity of disturbance, the frequency of disturbance, and the rate of successional recovery. Only when all three of these are known or estimated can statements be made as to whether the ecosystem is in a longterm sustainable condition or not.The somewhat overwhelming complexity of this task has led forest ecologists to use ecosystem-level computer simulation models. Appropriately structured and calibrated models of this type can provide predictions of the overall temporal patterns of ecosystem structure and functions that can be expected to accompany a given frequency and character of episodic disturbance. Such models can also be used to examine the long-term consequences of chronic disturbances such as acid rain and climatic change. Predictive ecosystem-level models should be used in conjunction with some method of stratifying the inherent spatial biophysical variability of the forest environment, such as the biogeoclimatic classification system of British Columbia.     

Measurement of atmospheric concentrations of common household pesticides: A pilot study

Air concentrations of 28 of the most commonly used household pesticides were measured inside nine homes in Jacksonville, Florida, and compared with corresponding outdoor levels. The households selected were sorted into three categories according to the degree of pesticide indoor usage. Personal air monitoring was also performed on one resident of each household by means of a portable sampler, which was kept with the person at all times. Five of the pesticides were found in the air inside of the majority of the homes at concentrations as high as 15 gm^–3 (average concentrations, 12 ngm^–3 to 2.4 gm^–3). Indoor levels were generally one to two ordrrs of magnitude higher than surrounding outdoor air levels and personal air measurements were within ± 50% of corresponding indoor values. All samples were collected over 24-hr periods on polyurethane foam and analyzed by capillary colum gas chromatography with mass spectrometric and/or electron capture detection.     

Estimating means and variances: The comparative efficiency of composite and grab samples

This paper compares the efficiencies of two sampling techniques for estimating a population mean and variance. One procedure, called grab sampling, consists of collecting and analyzing one sample per period. The second procedure, called composite sampling, collectsn samples per period which are then pooled and analyzed as a single sample. We review the well known fact that composite sampling provides a superior estimate of the mean. However, it is somewhat surprising that composite sampling does not always generate a more efficient estimate of the variance. For populations with platykurtic distributions, grab sampling gives a more efficient estimate of the variance, whereas composite sampling is better for leptokurtic distributions. These conditions on kurtosis can be related to peakedness and skewness. For example, a necessary condition for composite sampling to provide a more efficient estimate of the variance is that the population density function evaluated at the mean (i.e.f()) be greater than . If , then a grab sample is more efficient. In spite of this result, however, composite sampling does provide a smaller estimate of standard error than does grab sampling in the context of estimating population means.     

Empowering women. The solution to a global crisis

Norway's Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland holds a medical degree from the University of Oslo and a Master's degree in Public Health from Harvard University. She served as Norway's Minister of the Environment during 1974-79, and was elected to the Norwegian parliament in 1977. Brundtland is currently chairperson of the World Commission on Environment and Development with ten years of experience as a physician and twenty years as a politician. An edited version of her keynote address to the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development is presented. The Minister's experience has taught her that improved life conditions, a greater range of choices, access to unbiased information, and true international solidarity are the signs of human progress. She stresses the need to empower people, educate them, care for their health, and provide them with equal opportunity to achieve economically. Available combined resources need to be used more efficiently through a reformed and better coordinated UN system, policies must be changed, the role and status of women strengthened, safe, comprehensive reproductive health services provided, and measures taken to achieve a balance between population size and sustainable development in keeping with available global resources.     

Immunity in children with exposure to environmental lead: II. Effects on humoral immunity

Lead has been found to depress the immune system in animal studies at levels far below those responsible for overt toxicity. Literature studies in animal systems most clearly showed an effect of lead on response to a specific immunogenic stimulus. Data are sparse concerning the effects of lead on the immune system in the human population at greatest risk for exposure-children up to six years of age. This portion of the Phase I study reports concentrations of IgG, IgM, IgA, and IgE, as well as antibody titers to the specific antigenic stimuli provided by the vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and Rubella. The study population consisted of a group of 193 children, ages 9 months to 6 years, who participate in the WIC (Women, Infants and Children) and Lead Poisoning Prevention Programs in the urban area of Springfield-Greene County Missouri. Blood lead levels ranged from 1 to 50 g dL^–1. Total Ig levels were determined and the data were analysed. No consistent significant differences were observed among the risk categories in the five age groups examined. A single Ig class in each of three age groups showed apparent significant differences among the various risk categories, but these differences were not correlated with blood lead. An analysis of specific antibody titers to diphtheria, tetanus, and Rubella was performed. Regression analyses of current data in Phase I of this study suggest a detrimental effect of lead on the antibody titres to diphtheria and Rubella.     

Book reviews

Cost Benefit Analysis of Environmental Change

Per‐Olov Johansson

Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993, 232 pp., £13.95

Computerised Environmental Modelling: A Practical Introduction using Excel

J. Hardisty, D. M. Taylor & S. E. Metcalfe

Chichester, Wiley, 1993, 204 pp., £14.95

Keeping Pace with Science and Engineering: Case Studies in Environmental Regulation

Washington DC, US National Academy of Engineering, 1993

World Without End: Economics, Environment and Sustainable Development

D. W. Pearce & J. J. Warford

Oxford University Press, New York, 1993, 440 pp., £35.95     

Estimating the change of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere from 18 000 BP to present using a carbon cycle model

The authors used a global High Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM), consisting of a biome model and a carbon cycle model, to estimate the changes of carbon storage in the major pools of the terrestrial biosphere from 18 000 BP to present. The climate change data to drive the biosphere for 18 000 BP were derived from an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Using the AGCM anomalies interpolated to a 0.5 degrees grid, the HRBM data base of the present climate was recalculated for 18 000 BP. The most important processes which influenced the carbon storage include (1) climate-induced changes in biospheric processes and vegetation distribution, (2) the CO(2) fertilization effect, (3) the inundation of lowland areas resulting from the sea level rise of 100 m. Two scenarios were investigated. The first scenario, which ignored the CO(2) fertilization effect, led to total carbon losses from the terrestrial biosphere of -460 x 10(9) t. Scenario 2, which assumed that the model formulation of the CO(2) fertilization effect as used for preindustrial to present could be extrapolated to the glacial 200 microl litre(-1) (ppmv, parts per million per volume), gave a carbon fixation in the terrestrial biosphere of +213 x 10(9) t. The two scenarios were compared with CO(2) concentration data and isotopic ratios from air in ice cores. The results of Scenario 1 are not in agreement with the data. Scenario 2 gives realistic delta(13)C shifts in the atmosphere but the biospheric carbon storage at the end of the glacial period seems too large. The authors suggest that the low atmospheric CO(2) concentration may have favoured the C-4 plants in ice age vegetation types. As a consequence the influence of the low CO(2) concentration was eventually reduced and the glacial carbon storage in vegetation, litter, and soil was increased.