A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930–1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.     

Dissolved phosphorus transport from soil to surface water in catchments with different land use

Diffuse phosphorus (P) export from agricultural land to surface waters is a significant environmental problem. It is critical to determine the natural background P losses from diffuse sources, but their identification and quantification is difficult. In this study, three headwater catchments with differing land use (arable, pasture and forest) were monitored for 3 years to quantify exports of dissolved (<0.45 µm) reactive P and total dissolved P. Mean total P exports from the arable catchment ranged between 0.08 and 0.28 kg ha^?1 year^?1. Compared with the reference condition (forest), arable land and pasture exported up to 11-fold more dissolved P. The contribution of dissolved (<0.45 µm) unreactive P was low to negligible in every catchment. Agricultural practices can exert large pressures on surface waters that are controlled by hydrological factors. Adapting policy to cope with these factors is needed for lowering these pressures in the future.     

Past,present, and future use of phosphorus in Chinese agriculture and its influence on phosphorus losses

Large inputs of phosphorus (P) in chemical fertilizers and feed supplements since 1978 have improved soil P status in arable land in China, but have also created challenges by increasing P concentrations in manure and exacerbating water quality degradation. Arable land in China can be divided into five management zones based on soil P chemistry, with 15–92 % of arable land having lower P status than the agronomic optimum and 0.3–7.2 % having severe risks of P leaching losses. A scenario analysis of soil P budget and agronomic P demand during 2011–2030 highlighted the great pressure China faces in sustainable P management and the need for drastic changes in current practices. This includes new policies to reduce P supplementation of feed and improved P use efficiency by livestock and programs to expand the adoption of appropriate fertilization, soil conservation, and drainage management practices to minimize P losses.     

Developing an analytical framework for assessing progress toward ecosystem-based management

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has become a key instrument of contemporary environmental policy and practice. Given the increasingly important role of EBM, there is an urgent need for improved analytical approaches to assess if and to what extent EBM has been accomplished in any given case. Drawing on the vast literature on EBM, we identify five key ecosystem aspects for assessment. By linking these aspects to four phases of management, we develop an interdisciplinary, analytical framework that enables a high-resolution and systematic assessment of the degree of specificity and integration of ecosystem aspects in an EBM. We then apply the framework to evaluate five coastal EBM initiatives in Sweden, four on the Baltic coast and one on the west coast. Our results demonstrate our framework’s usefulness for in-depth and continuous assessments of processes aiming for EBM, and also provide an empirical basis for inferences about the key challenges for successful EBM.     

A Comparative Study Between Technological Properties of Cashew Tree Gum and Arabic Gum

Arabic gum (AG) is the most common emulsifier used for beverage emulsions. Cashew tree gum (CG) is a biological macromolecule that has been proposed as a substitute for the AG, although their technological properties comparison is still necessary. The aim of this study was to evaluate an isolation method for CG, and then evaluate CG technological properties in comparison to AG. The CG isolation methodology was improved using a small solvent amount. CG zeta-potential ranged from +8.0 mV (pH 2) to ?9.7 mV (pH 5), while the electric charge in solution of AG ranged from ?2.7 mV (pH 2) to ?28.6 mV (pH 6). As compared to AG, the CG showed a 50 % higher swelling, a 36 % lower oil absorption capacity, a slightly lower (4–8 %) solubility and lower consistency. CG is a feasible polyelectrolyte, promotes lower consistency solutions, and exhibits good swelling property.     

Management of mine spoil for crop productivity with lignite fly ash and biological amendments

Long-term field trials using lignite fly ash (LFA) were carried out in rice crops during the period 1996-2000 at Mine I, Neyveli Lignite Corporation, Tamil Nadu. LFA, being alkaline and endowed with an excellent pozzolanic nature, silt loam texture, and plant nutrients, has the potential to improve the texture, fertility, and crop productivity of mine spoil. The rice crops were the first, third, fifth, and sixth crops in rotation. The other crops, such as green gram (second) and sun hemp (fourth), were grown as green manure. For experimental trials, LFA was applied at various dosages (0, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 t/ha), with and without press mud (10 t/ha), before cultivation of the first crop. Repeat applications of LFA were made at the same dosages in treatments of up to 50 t/ha (with and without press mud) before cultivation of the third and fifth crops. Press mud, a lightweight organic waste product from the sugar industry, was used as an organic amendment and source of plant nutrients. Also, a recommended dosage of chemical fertilizer, along with gypsum, humic acid, and biofertilizer as supplementing agents, was applied in all the treatments, including control. With one-time and repeat applications of LFA, from 5 to 20 t/ha (with and without press mud), the crop yield (grain and straw) increased significantly (p < 0.05), in the range from 3.0 to 42.0% over the corresponding control. The maximum yield was obtained with repeat applications of 20 t/ha of LFA with press mud in the third crop. The press mud enhanced the yield in the range of 1.5-10.2% with various dosages of LFA. The optimum dosage of LFA was 20 t/ha for both one-time and repeat applications. Repeat applications of LFA at lower dosages of up to 20 t/ha were more effective in increasing the yield than the corresponding one-time applications of up to 20 t/ha and repeat applications at 50 t/ha. One-time and repeat applications of LFA of up to 20 t/ha (with and without press mud), apart from increasing the yield, evinced improvement in the texture and fertility of mine spoil and the nutrient content of crop produce. Furthermore, some increase in the content of trace and heavy metals and the level of gamma-emitters in the mine spoil and crop produce was observed, but well within the permissible limits. The residual effect of LFA on succeeding crops was also encouraging in terms of eco-friendliness. Beyond 20 t/ha of LFA, the crop yield decreased significantly (p < 0.05), as a result of the formation of hardpan in the mine spoil and possibly the higher concentration of soluble salts in the LFA. However, the adverse effects of soluble salts were annulled progressively during the cultivation of succeeding crops. A plausible mechanism for the improved fertility of mine spoil and the carryover or uptake of toxic trace and heavy metals and gamma-emitters in mine spoil and crop produce is also discussed.     

Subsurface nutrient modelling using finite element model under Boro rice cropping system

Boro rice, an emerging low-risk crop variety of rice, cultivated using residual or stored water after Kharif season. To enhance the quality and production of rice, potassium (K) and phosphorus (P) are the common constituents of agricultural fertilizers. However, excess application of fertilizers causes leaching of nutrients and contaminates the groundwater system. Therefore, assessment and optimization of fertilizer dose are needed for better management of fertilizers. Towards this, the present study determines the path, persistence, and mobility of K and P under the Boro rice cropping system. The experimental site consisted of four plots having Boro rice with four different fertilizer doses of nitrogen (N), P, K viz. 100%, 75%, 50%, and 25% of the recommended dose. Disturbed soil samples were analysed for K and P from pre-sown land to tillering stage at 0–5, 5–10, 10–15, 15–30, 30–45, and 45–60 cm depths. Simultaneously, K and available P were also simulated in the subsurface soil layers through the HYDRUS-1D model. The statistical comparisons were made with RMSER, E, and PBIAS between the modelled values and laboratory-measured values. Although, the results showed that all the treatments considered had agreeable simulations for both K and P, the K simulations were found to be better as compared to P simulations except for 25% where P simulations outperformed K. The simulated concentration at all doses was found most appropriate when measured for the subsurface layers (up to 45 cm), while showed an underestimation in the bottom layers (45–60 cm) of soil.

     

Polynomial Surrogates for Open-Channel Flows in Random Steady State

Assessing epistemic uncertainties is considered as a milestone for improving numerical predictions of a dynamical system. In hydrodynamics, uncertainties in input parameters translate into uncertainties in simulated water levels through the shallow water equations. We investigate the ability of generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) surrogate to evaluate the probabilistic features of water level simulated by a 1-D hydraulic model (MASCARET) with the same accuracy as a classical Monte Carlo method but at a reduced computational cost. This study highlights that the water level probability density function and covariance matrix are better estimated with the polynomial surrogate model than with a Monte Carlo approach on the forward model given a limited budget of MASCARET evaluations. The gPC-surrogate performance is first assessed on an idealized channel with uniform geometry and then applied on the more realistic case of the Garonne River (France) for which a global sensitivity analysis using sparse least-angle regression was performed to reduce the size of the stochastic problem. For both cases, Galerkin projection approximation coupled to Gaussian quadrature that involves a limited number of forward model evaluations is compared with least-square regression for computing the coefficients when the surrogate is parameterized with respect to the local friction coefficient and the upstream discharge. The results showed that a gPC-surrogate with total polynomial degree equal to 6 requiring 49 forward model evaluations is sufficient to represent the water level distribution (in the sense of the \(\ell _2\) norm), the probability density function and the water level covariance matrix for further use in the framework of data assimilation. In locations where the flow dynamics is more complex due to bathymetry, a higher polynomial degree is needed to retrieve the water level distribution. The use of a surrogate is thus a promising strategy for uncertainty quantification studies in open-channel flows and should be extended to unsteady flows. It also paves the way toward cost-effective ensemble-based data assimilation for flood forecasting and water resource management.     

Groundwater Modeling in Agricultural Watershed under Different Recharge and Discharge Scenarios for Quaternary Aquifer Eastern Nile Delta,Egypt

Different scenarios of recharge and discharge were assessed for sustainable management of groundwater in Quaternary aquifer east of Nile Delta. MODFLOW was utilized to investigate the effect of land use change and damming construction in the upstream of the Nile River on the current and short-term groundwater management strategies. The interpretive transient simulation was performed between 2004 and 2016 after steady-state calibration in 2004, and transient state from 2004 to 2013 with different irrigation recharges associated with land use change in this period. Sensitivity analysis was performed for hydraulic conductivities, recharge, and conductance parameters. The predictive transient simulation was run till 2023 under three scenarios of increasing pumping rates by 15, 30, and 50% for agriculture expansion and specified head reduction of Port Said Canal by 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 m associated with the reduction of Nile water levels after Grand Ethiopian Residence Dam, GERD operation in 2017. Results from the in- and out-flow budgets showed that groundwater aquifer is stable at the current rate of pumping till 2023. Groundwater heads decreased by 0.2 and 0.42 m in the southern section, and a slight increase in the northern part was noticed for the first and second scenarios, respectively. When additional pumping stress is applied (50% increase), groundwater head dropped by 0.66 m, and the storage is no longer able to maintain the aquifer capacity after 2020 (worst-case scenario).