Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

Ecosystems close to a critical threshold lose resilience, in the sense that perturbations can more easily push them into an alternative state. Recently, it has been proposed that such loss of resilience may be detected from elevated autocorrelation and variance in the fluctuations of the state of an ecosystem due to critical slowing down; the underlying generic phenomenon that occurs at critical thresholds. Here we explore the robustness of autocorrelation and variance as indicators of imminent critical transitions. We show both analytically and in simulations that variance may sometimes decrease close to a transition. This can happen when environmental factors fluctuate stochastically and the ecosystem becomes less sensitive to these factors near the threshold, or when critical slowing down reduces the ecosystem's capacity to follow high-frequency fluctuations in the environment. In addition, when available data is limited, variance can be systematically underestimated due to the prevalence of low frequencies close to a transition. By contrast, autocorrelation always increases toward critical transitions in our analyses. To exemplify this point, we provide cases of rising autocorrelation and increasing or decreasing variance in time series prior to past climate transitions.     

Effect of modified Fenton treatment on the thermal behavior of contaminated harbor sediments

This study presents the results of experimental Fenton-like treatments conducted on marine sediment slurries (2g sediment vs. 20 ml liquid). The sediment was collected in a harbor situated in a high density industrial area, characterized by a great hydrocarbon C>12 and PAHs contamination. The investigated parameters were: the H(2)O(2) dose, the reagent's pH and the effect of a phosphate salt and ferrous iron addition. To evaluate sediment's characteristics COD, particle size, thermogravimetric and differential thermal analyses were performed under N(2) and O(2) atmosphere while dissolved organic carbon and COD analyses were performed on the filtrate. Results indicate that the treatment was able to change the organic matter to a less hydrophobic state, to destroy part of the organic carbon (up to 78% decrease of the 200-400 degrees C labile organic matter), to lower the COD of the sediment (60% COD removal maximum) and to increase the cumulated distribution undersize. In addition as the treated sediment showed easier-to-handle characteristics, reduced caking and lower aggregation capacity, the modified Fenton treatment could also be considered a pre-treatment of a successive thermal treatment.     

Estimation of uncertainty arising from different soil sampling devices: the use of variogram parameters

In the frame of the international SOILSAMP project, funded and coordinated by the National Environmental Protection Agency of Italy (APAT), uncertainties due to field soil sampling were assessed. Three different sampling devices were applied in an agricultural area using the same sampling protocol. Cr, Sc and Zn mass fractions in the collected soil samples were measured by k(0)-instrumental neutron activation analysis (k(0)-INAA). For each element-device combination the experimental variograms were calculated using geostatistical tools. The variogram parameters were used to estimate the standard uncertainty arising from sampling. The sampling component represents the dominant contribution of the measurement uncertainty with a sampling uncertainty to measurement uncertainty ratio ranging between 0.6 and 0.9. The approach based on the use of variogram parameters leads to uncertainty values of the sampling component in agreement with those estimated by replicate sampling approach.     

Marine reserves reestablish lost predatory interactions and cause community changes in rocky reefs.

In the last decades, marine reserves have dramatically increased in number worldwide. Here I examined the potential of no-take marine reserves to reestablish lost predatory interactions and, in turn, cause community-wide changes in Mediterranean rocky reefs. Protected locations supported higher density and size of the most effective fish preying on sea urchins (the sea breams Diplodus sargus and D. vulgaris) than unprotected locations. Density of sea urchins (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) was lower at protected than at unprotected locations. Size structure of P. lividus was bimodal (a symptom of predation on medium-sized urchins) only at the protected locations. Coralline barrens were less extended at protected than at unprotected locations, whereas turf-forming and erect-branched algae showed an opposite pattern. Erect-unbranched and erect-calcified algae and conspicuous zoobenthic organisms did not show any pattern related to protection. Tethering experiments showed that predation impact on urchins was (1) higher at protected than at unprotected locations, (2) higher on P. lividus than on A. lixula, and (3) higher on medium-sized (2-3.5 cm test diameter) than large-sized (>3.5 cm) urchins. Sea urchins preyed on by fish in natural conditions were smaller at unprotected than at protected locations. The analysis of sea urchin remains found in Diplodus fish stomachs revealed that medium-sized P. lividus were the most frequently preyed upon urchins and that size range of consumed sea urchins expanded with increasing size of Diplodus fish. These results suggest that (1) depletion and size reduction of predatory fish caused by fishing alter patterns of predation on sea urchins, and that (2) fishing bans (e.g., within no-take marine reserves) may reestablish lost interactions among strongly interactive species in temperate rocky reefs with potential community-wide effects.     

Interlinked temporal changes in environmental conditions, chemical characteristics of sediments and macrofaunal assemblages in an estuarine intertidal sandflat (Seto Inland Sea, Japan)

Five field surveys were conducted in an estuarine intertidal sandflat of the Seto Inland Sea (Japan) between April 1994 and April 1995. Chlorophyll a, pheopigments, total organic carbon and acid-volatile sulphides (AVS) of surface and subsurface sediments, and macrofaunal assemblages were investigated in parallel at 15 stations. Monthly hydrological data of low-tide creek water adjacent to the flat were used as a complementary environmental characterisation of the study area. Strong temporal changes were found among sampling dates, most remarkably in autumn with a major increase of algal detritus and AVS, a sharp reduction in macrofaunal abundances and species richness, and a massive mortality of the clam Ruditapes philippinarum. This dystrophic event was preceded by a photoautotrophic and hypertrophic spring–summer characterized by abundant fresh (i.e., living) algal material, including microphytobenthos and macroalgae (Ulva sp.). In summer, abundant macrofaunal assemblages reached the highest biomass values (455 g wet weight m⁻² or 60.6 g ash free dry weight m⁻²), with a major contribution of filter-feeding bivalves Musculista senhousia and R. philippinarum. These are among the highest values reported in the literature for sedimentary shores. From autumn, there was a progressive recolonisation of macrofauna, initiated by few opportunistic polychaetes (e.g., Cirriformia tentaculata and Polydora sp.), apparently promoting a fast sediment recovery in winter, and followed by new bivalve recruits in the next spring. This study provides the first evidence of significant and interlinked within-year changes in chemical characteristics of sediments and macrofaunal assemblages in an estuarine intertidal flat at a small spatial scale (i.e., tens of meters). This demonstrates the high temporal variability of species–environment relations in these systems and a close relationship in seasonally driven trophodynamic processes among primary producers and benthic consumers. We conclude that a thorough parallel evaluation of the temporal changes in chemical characteristics of sediments should be taken into account in assessing the year-round distribution and changes of intertidal macrofauna, particularly in eutrophic, estuarine intertidal flats.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Seasonal variations in nickel and vanadium in Mont Blanc snow and ice dated from the 1960s and 1990s

Ni and V have been determined in snow and ice collected at a high altitude location (Col du D?me) near the summit of Mont Blanc on the French-Italian border; dated from the 1960s and 1990s. Ni and V were simultaneously determined by inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry. Measured concentrations range from 6 to 700 pg g(-1) and 4 to 1,100 pg g(-1) for Ni and V, respectively. The results show pronounced seasonal variations in the concentrations of both metals, with high concentration values in summer layers and much lower values for winter layers. These seasonal variations are linked especially with the existence of inversion layers during winter months. Ni and V concentrations in excess of the contributions from rock and soil dust (Ni(excess), V(excess)) appear to be mainly associated with anthropogenic inputs, with pronounced seasonal variations. Large variations in the V(excess)/Ni(excess) ratio are observed, with a higher ratio in summer than in winter. This shows differences in anthropogenic inputs at Col du D?me during the different parts of the year. The above ratio was compared with the corresponding ratios for oil combustion from stationary sources and the exhaust from gasoline and diesel engines. It appears that Ni and V concentrations at Col du D?me are probably the result of changing combinations of contributions from oil combustion for power generation, industrial and residential uses, on one side, and automobile and truck traffic, on the other side, with possibly a significant contribution from Ni smelters in Russia during winter months.     

Chlorpyrifos residues levels in fruits and vegetables after field treatment

Chlorpyrifos (O,O-diethyl O-3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridyl phosphorothioate) was applied with three different formulations on oranges, peaches, tomatoes, wine and table grapes, and its behaviour was evaluated after field treatment. The formulations applied were emulsifiable concentrates (EC), microencapsulates (ME), and wettable granules (WG). The residues were similar in all crops studied in the EC and WG experiments, except peaches with WG treatment, the residue amount was lower than EC values. Tomatoes which were grown in greenhouse showed similar residues in all treatments just after treatment. Wine and table grapes showed different decline curves in the EC experiments ascribable to the different growing technology. Instrumental limit of determination (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) for all matrices were 0.01, and 0.03 mg kg?1, respectively. Repeated treatments showed that Chlorpyrifos can accumulate leading to residue levels at the preharvest interval (PHI) over the maximum residue level (MRL), especially on oranges and peaches. Among the formulates used ME showed the higher risk of residues over the MRL at harvest.     

Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project

This paper describes the MICORE approach to quantify for nine field sites the crucial storm related physical hazards (hydrodynamic as well as morphodynamic) in support of early warning efforts and emergency response.As a first step historical storms that had a significant morphological impact on a representative number of sensitive European coastal stretches were reviewed and analysed in order to understand storm related morphological changes and how often they occur around Europe. Next, an on-line storm prediction system was set up to enable prediction of storm related hydro- and morphodynamic impacts. The system makes use of existing off-the-shelf models as well as a new open-source morphological model. To validate the models at least one year of fieldwork was done at nine pilot sites. The data was safeguarded and stored for future use in an open database that conforms to the OpenEarth protocols.To translate quantitative model results to useful information for Civil Protection agencies the Frame of Reference approach ( [Van Koningsveld et al., 2005] and [Van Koningsveld et al., 2007] ) was used to derive Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) for relevant decision makers. The acquired knowledge is expected to be directly transferred to the civil society trough partnerships with end-users at the end of the MICORE project.     

Trisomy 15 mosaicism owing to familial reciprocal translocation t(1;15): implication for prenatal diagnosis

We describe a 4-year-old female child with severe global mental retardation, myoclonic epilepsy, proximal hypotonia and dysmorphisms, whose prenatal diagnosis following amniocentesis revealed a constitutional female karyotype carrying a t(1;15)(q10;p11) familial reciprocal translocation. Post-natal high-resolution karyotype, Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) screening for subtelomeric rearrangements, VNTR search for UPD15 in the blood and fibroblast, and WCP1 and 15 in the mother, failed to provide an explanation for the complex clinical phenotype of the proband. Since the pachytene configuration of the translocated chromosomes defines a high probability of 3:1 segregation, an extensive workup was undertaken to look for a possibly cryptic mosaicism. Four percent of the cells with trisomy 15 was found in the peripheral blood lymphocytes examined by classical cytogenetic technique and interphase FISH analysis. The clinical features associated with cryptic trisomy 15 mosaicism and the problems concerning prenatal diagnosis and genetic counselling for carriers of translocations at high risk of 3:1 segregation are discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.