Indicator and probability kriging methods for delineating Cu, Fe, and Mn contamination in groundwater of Najafgarh Block, Delhi, India

Two non-parametric kriging methods such as indicator kriging and probability kriging were compared and used to estimate the probability of concentrations of Cu, Fe, and Mn higher than a threshold value in groundwater. In indicator kriging, experimental semivariogram values were fitted well in spherical model for Fe and Mn. Exponential model was found to be best for all the metals in probability kriging and for Cu in indicator kriging. The probability maps of all the metals exhibited an increasing risk of pollution over the entire study area. Probability kriging estimator incorporates the information about order relations which the indicator kriging does not, has improved the accuracy of estimating the probability of metal concentrations in groundwater being higher than a threshold value. Evaluation of these two spatial interpolation methods through mean error (ME), mean square error (MSE), kriged reduced mean error (KRME), and kriged reduced mean square error (KRMSE) showed 3.52% better performance of probability kriging over indicator kriging. The combined result of these two kriging method indicated that on an average 26.34%, 65.36%, and 99.55% area for Cu, Fe, and Mn, respectively, are coming under the risk zone with probability of exceedance from a cutoff value is 0.6 or more. The groundwater quality map pictorially represents groundwater zones as ??desirable?? or ??undesirable?? for drinking. Thus the geostatistical approach is very much helpful for the planners and decision makers to devise policy guidelines for efficient management of the groundwater resources so as to enhance groundwater recharge and minimize the pollution level.     

The idea of sustainable development

In this lecture, I demonstrate how very different macroeconomic history begins to look if Nature is included as a capital asset in production activities. The tentative conclusions I draw from the evidence are: (1) high population growth in the world’s poorest regions (South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa) has been an obstacle to the achievement of sustainable economic development there; relatedly, (2) when population growth is taken into account, the accumulation of manufactured capital, knowledge, and human capital (health and education) has not compensated for the degradation of natural capital in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and, in all probability, even in the UK and the US; (3) China is possibly an exception to (1) and (2). This article is based on the Keynote Lecture delivered at the international symposium on “Sustainability in an Unequal World”, held in Tokyo on November 24, 2006. The exposition relies on my book, Economics: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2007. The author is the Frank Ramsey Professor of Economics at the University of Cambridge and a Fellow of St. John’s College, Cambridge.     

Fairness between generations and the social rate of discount

This paper analyses the relationship between social rates of discount to be used in benefit-cost analysis of investment projects and optimal intertemporal plans of capital accumulation and resource depletion. The discussion is conducted in the context of models that incorporate exhaustible natural resources. It is argued that discount rates are a derived concept and that they ought to be arrived at from a consideration of our sense of intergenerational justice and optimal programmes arrived at from intergenerational welfare criteria.     

Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh

This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001–2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher.     

Silver nanoparticle antimicrobial activity explained by membrane rupture and reactive oxygen generation

Silver nanoparticles are widely used as antimicrobial compounds based on empirical observations. However, there is few knowledge on the mechanism ruling the antimicrobial activity and toxicity of Ag nanoparticles. Here, we investigated this mechanism. Nano-Ag was synthesised by thermal co-reduction. Mutagenicity analysis was performed using Salmonella typhimurium histidine auxotrophic strains TA 98 and TA 100 at nano-silver concentrations of 100 to 500 µg per plate. Dose-dependent analysis for reactive oxygen species generation has been performed using 2,7-dichlorofluorescein diacetate dye. Membrane integrity has been analyzed at 260 nm, before and after treatment. We also used scanning electron microscopy, membrane permeabilization test, and superoxide formation determinations. Results show that the average particle size of Ag nanoparticle is 60.4 ± 3.8 nm. The minimum inhibitory concentration of Ag nanoparticles for E.coli is 30 µg/mL; the minimum bactericidal concentration is 40 µg/mL. Ames mutagenicity tests showed negative results, which may be explained by the antimicrobial activity of nano-silver. Bacterial inner wall were indeed ruptured, and cytoplasmic content was released after 5 min of treatment in a dose-dependent manner. We thus propose that reactive oxygen generation and alteration of membrane integrity and permeability are the major mechanism of antimicrobial activity of nano-silver.     

应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛

科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛.     

Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

Food-grade nanoencapsulation of vitamins

Environmental Chemistry Letters - Vitamin deficiency arises when the dietary intake of essential vitamins is too low. Insufficient levels of vitamin weaken the body and induce diseases. Although...     

Protected areas and deforestation: new results from high‐resolution panel data

This paper investigates the effectiveness of protected areas in slowing tropical forest clearing in 64 countries in Asia/Pacific, Africa and Latin America during the period of 2001–2012 by comparing deforestation rates inside and within 10 km outside of the boundaries of protected areas. Annual time series of these deforestation rates were constructed from recently published high‐resolution data on forest clearing from Hansen et al. (2013). For 4,028 parks, panel estimation based on a variety of park characteristics was conducted to test if deforestation was lower in protected areas because of their protected status, or if other factors explained the difference. From a sample of 726 parks established since 2002, a test was also conducted to investigate the effect of park establishment on protection. Findings suggest park size, national park status and management by indigenous people all are significantly associated with effective protection across regions. For the Asia/Pacific region, the test offers compelling evidence that park establishment has a near‐immediate and powerful effect.