Continuous dose-response modeling and risk analysis with the gamma and reciprocal gamma distributions

Kodell and West (1993) describe two methods for calculating pointwise upper confidence limits on the risk function with normally distributed responses and using a certain definition of adverse quantitative effect. But Banga et al. (2000) have shown that these normal theory methods break down when applied to skew data. We accordingly develop a risk analysis model and associated likelihood-based methodology when the response follows either a gamma or reciprocal gamma distribution. The model supposes that the shape (index) parameter k of the response distribution is held fixed while the logarithm of the scale parameter is a linear model in terms of the dose level. Existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimates is established. Asymptotic likelihood-based upper and lower confidence limits on the risk are solutions of the Lagrange equations associated with a constrained optimization problem. Starting values for an iterative solution are obtained by replacing the Lagrange equations by the lowest order terms in their asymptotic expansions. Three methods are then compared for calculating confidence limits on the risk: (i) the aforementioned starting values (LRAL method), (ii) full iterative solution of the Lagrange equations (LREL method), and (iii) bounds obtained using approximate normality of the maximum likelihood estimates with standard errors derived from the information matrix (MLE method). Simulation is used to assess coverage probabilities for the resulting upper confidence limits when the log of the scale parameter is quadratic in the dose level. Results indicate that coverage for the MLE method can be off by as much as 15% points and converges very slowly to nominal coverage levels as the sample size increases. Coverage for the LRAL and LREL methods, on the other hand, is close to nominal levels unless (a) the sample size is small, say N < 25, (b) the index parameter is small, say k 1, and (c) the direction of adversity is to the left for the gamma distribution or to the right for the reciprocal gamma distribution.     

Direct calculation of likelihood-based benchmark dose levels for quantitative responses

A benchmark dose (BMD) for quantitative responses is a lower confidence limit (LCL) on the effective dose corresponding to a specified risk level r. A commonly adopted method for calculating the BMD is to obtain a pointwise upper confidence curve U(d) on the risk function and then invert this relationship by solving the equation U(d)=r. The solution d is taken to be the BMD. Sciullo et al. (2000) have shown that the coverage achieved by this inversion method is at least as great as the coverage achieved by U (·) but that there is otherwise no general relationship between the two coverage probabilities. The present paper develops a method for direct calculation of the BMD based on the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic. It is further shown that the direct method and the inversion method are equivalent when U (·) is also based on the likelihood ratio. Since the direct method is known to be asymptotically correct, it follows that the LR-based inversion method is also asymptotically correct. However, the direct method is computationally faster and easier to program. Finally, some simulation studies are conducted to assess the small sample coverage probabilities of the direct method when responses follow either a normal or a gamma distribution.     

Chemical mass balance model for source apportionment of aerosols in Bombay

Aerosol samples collected within an industrial region of Bombay were analyzed for elemental concentrations using inductively coupled plasma emission spectroscopy, ultraviolet/visible spectrophotometry and X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. Nineteen elements were selected as tracers of identified sources of aerosol in the region. The U.S. EPA chemical mass balance model was employed for source apportionment. Seven major source types were identified and the performance of the model was evaluated at different sampling locations. Model results were unsatisfactory at highly polluted sites in the study regions. It was found that U.S. EPA source profiles are not suitable for such regions in India and site-specific source profiles should be used in the application of chemical mass balance for source apportionment.     

A Statistical Analysis of Particulate Data Sets for Jawaharlal Nehru Port and Surrounding Harbour Region in India

The concentrations of total suspended particulate matter (TSP) and particulate matter less than 10 microns (PM10) were measured at various locations in a Jawaharlal Nehru port and surrounding harbour region. Meteorological data was also collected to establish the correlation with air pollutant concentration. The results are analysed from the standpoint of monthly and seasonal variations, annual trends as well as meteorological effects. The monthly mean concentration of TSP was in the range of 88.2 to 199.3 microg m(-3). The maximum and minimum-recorded value of PM10 was 135.8 and 20.3 microg m(-3), respectively. The annual average concentration of PM10 was 66.1 microg m(-3). There are clear associations between TSP and PM10 data set at all the measured three sites with a correlation coefficient of 0.89, 0.69 and 0.81, respectively. PM10 data appears to be a constant fraction of the TSP data throughout the year, indicating common influences of meteorology and sources. Particle size analysis showed PM10 to be 47% of the total TSP concentration, which is lower than reported for industrial area and traffic junctions in Mumbai. Anthropogenic sources contribute significantly to the PM10 fraction in an industrial region, while contributions from natural sources are more in a port and harbour area. Statistical analysis of air quality data shows that TSP is strongly correlated with wind speed but weakly correlated with temperature. There appears to be a simple inverse relationship between TSP and wind speed data, indicating the dilution and transport by winds.     

Statistical analyses of coastal water quality for a port and harbour region in India

A long-term study of temperature, pH, turbidity, suspended solid, salinity, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen has been performed in a port and harbour region in India for four years from December 1996 to November 2000. Marine water quality results showed no regular trend. The mean monthly values of temperature, pH, turbidity, suspended solid, salinity, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen were in the range of 22.64 ± 0.4 to 29.05 ± 1.37 °C; 7.65 ± 0.04 to 7.81 ± 0.13; 28.8 ± 14.7 to 64.2 ± 32.0 NTU; 283.5 ± 81.8 to 356.0 ± 159.7 mg/L; 29.78 ± 7.18 to 29.78 ± 1.04 ppt; 4.67 ± 0.50 to 6.01 ± 1.02 mg/L; 5.41 ± 1.92 to 7.56 ± 2.1 mg/L; and 0.25 ± 0.07 to 0.63 ± 0.49 mg/L, respectively. The results of correlation analysis showed that biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was inversely correlated dissolved oxygen (DO) and poorly correlated with all other parameters. Turbidity and suspended solid were moderately correlated with each other while salinity was moderately correlated with other water quality parameters. In factor analysis, four factors were drawn out of the eight variables, which represented 74% of the variance of the original data. Factor I was related to suspended solid and turbidity. Factor II represented mainly temperature and DO showing inverse relation between these two. Factor III implied the degree of pollution at any monitoring station. Factor IV included pH and salinity. It could be concluded that the factor model represented almost all the variables.     

Assessing the impact of policy-driven agricultural practices in Karnataka, India

The classical approach of assessing sustainability with respect to its three underlying pillars, ecological, economic, and social, is adopted in this paper, with an added emphasis on estimating the simultaneous effects of each pillar on the other two. The paper assesses the impact of policy-driven changes in cultivation practices in five districts in the south-western Indian state of Karnataka. A comparative statics analysis using a simultaneous equations model is developed to capture the stability of each pillar into the future and their concurrent interactive impacts and trade-offs. Ecological and economic impacts of policies favoring organic farming are estimated to be uniformly significant and positive in the study districts. However, the impact on socio-cultural criteria is subjective to the eco-regional context. Cost savings, through producing organic inputs on-farm, maximizes synchrony among the three pillars vis-à-vis sourcing these inputs from the market. With more reliance on organic inputs, better prospects are estimated for small and rain-fed farms compared to large and irrigated farms.     

Industrial hygiene and toxicity studies in unorganized bone-based industrial units

A large variety of ornamental and decorative items are manufactured from bone waste by various unorganized sectors in India. An initial survey indicated that workers were exposed at various phases of final product. The subjects (12 industrial units) were tested for total suspended particulate matter (TSPM), particulate matter <10  $\upmu $ m (PM₁₀), and particulate matter <2.5  $\upmu $ m (PM_2.5). Prevalent levels of TSPM ranged between 2.90 and 5.89 mg m^???3. Respirable fractions of occupational dust as PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 were found in the range of 0.30?C2.08 and 0.26?C0.50 mg m^???3, respectively. Cytotoxicity study was conducted using hemolysis as a sensitive marker. In an in vitro study, rat RBCs were exposed to the concentration of 25?C1,000  $\upmu $ g/ml for 15?C120 min. A considerable variation was observed in the hemolytic activity of samples collected from different areas. At 500  $\upmu $ g/ml concentration, the hemolytic activity (12 h) was found to be in the range of 18?C25%. Due to limitation in sample mass of respirable fractions, only one concentration (100  $\upmu $ g/ml/2 h) was used for comparative study on hemolysis of RBCs caused by PM₁₀ and PM_2.5. Interestingly, the hemolytic activity was more at PM_2.5 than PM₁₀ and TSPM. These results suggest that the respirable particles are capable of reaching deep into the respiratory system. The finding is significant notably when there are no standards available in occupationally exposed populations. This is the first such study. Data could be of importance to policy makers and regulators.     

Recycling of banana pseudostem waste for economical production of quality banana

Banana pseudostem biomass, traditionally incinerated and wasted, has been conserved and recycled by solid state fermentation (SSF) into plant growth stimulating soil conditioner (SC). This SC alone or combined with biofertilizers showed reduced mortality (10 and 12%) of planted suckers, enhanced chlorophyll contents (593 and 661 μg g⁻¹), gave biomass (35.0 and 36.6 kg) at par and improved yield (54.2 and 55.0 MT ha⁻¹), with that of the control (23%, 312 μg g⁻¹, 36.3 kg and 49.4 MT ha⁻¹, respectively). This has afforded (i) saving of chemical fertilizers by 50%, (ii) reduction in quantum (40%) and frequency (15%) of irrigation and (iii) reduction in cost of electricity and labor without sacrificing quality and quantity of banana. Thus, a voluminous agro-waste is converted into an eco-friendly agro-input for sustainable productivity.     

Thraustochytrid protists as a component of marine microbial films

Although ubiquitous in the marine environment, the presence and importance of thraustochytrid fungoid protists in primary film formation of freshly immersed surfaces in the sea have not been investigated. We isolated thraustochytrids from surfaces of glass, aluminium, mild steel and fibre glass panels immersed in sea water for 1 to 4 d, but not from those of copper and cupro-nickel. Microscopic examination of the primary film on glass surfaces revealed the presence of thraustochytrids. Thraustochytrids grew to varying population densities on surfaces of glass, aluminium and fibre glass in the laboratory. Scanning electron microscopy of the growth of Ulkenia profunda Gaertner, isolated from the primary film, on surfaces of glass and aluminium suggested that cells of the thraustochytrid attached directly to the surfaces, without producing copious extracellular polysaccharides. The presence of ectoplasmic net elements was not a prerequisite for attachment of cells to surfaces. Cell surface hydrophobicity of the thraustochytrid, as estimated by the MATH assay, might play an important role in adhesion. The presence of thraustochytrid cells on a polystyrene surface markedly induced settlement of barnacle larvae (Balanus amphitrite), as compared to barnacle extract and a control. Received: 26 July 1999 / Accepted: 21 January 2000