Sensitivity of Portuguese forest fires to climatic, human, and landscape variables: subnational differences between fire drivers in extreme fire years and decadal averages

Within the changing fire regimes of Portugal, the relative importance of humans and climatic variability for regional fire statistics remains poorly understood. This work investigates the statistical relationship between temporal dynamics of fire events in Portugal and a set of socioeconomic, landscape, and climatic variables for the time periods of 1980–1990, 1991–2000, and extreme fires years. For 10 of 15 districts, it was possible to observe moderate shifts in the significance of fire drivers for the first two decadal periods. For others, pronounced changes of the significance of fire drivers were found across time. Results point toward a dynamic (perhaps highly non-linear) behavior of socioeconomic and landscape fire drivers, especially during the occurrence of extreme fire years of 2003 and 2005. At country level, population density alone explained 42% of the inter-annual and inter-district deviance in number of fires. At the same temporal and spatial scale, the explanatory power of temperature anomalies proved to explain 43% of area burnt. We highlight the necessity of including a broad set of socioeconomic and landscape fire drivers in order to account for potential significance shifts. In addition, although climate does trigger broad favorable fire conditions across Portugal mainland, socioeconomic and landscape factors proved to determine much of the complex fire patterns at a subnational scale.     

A context-inclusive approach to support energy policy formulation and evaluation

Observing the many and varied reactions to the Kyoto Protocol, it becomes clear that different governments find themselves in different contexts that eventually direct them toward taking dissimilar positions on energy issues. This paper, through five integrated studies, investigates whether contextualizing energy issues is (are) relevant to support energy policy formulation and evaluation and provides insights into how to operationalize the contextualization. Instead of considering the most widely accepted tools currently used to assess and evaluate energy policy, this research proposes the utilization of a holistic framework that incorporates social, economic and environmental factors as well as their relations to the energy sector to better contextualize global, regional and national energy issues. This framework, which accounts for feedback loops, delays and non-linearity, is applied to case studies to investigate the longer-term performance of selected energy policies. Results of the study indicate the likely emergence of various unexpected side effects and elements of policy resistance over the medium and longer term due to the interrelations existing between energy and society, economy and environment. Furthermore, while side effects and unintended consequences may arise both within the energy sector and in the other sectors, they simultaneously influence society, economy and environment.     

Land-cover changes in and around a National Park in a mountain landscape in the Pyrenees

The current state of Mediterranean mountain areas has been driven by two main factors: intense traditional human activity and the dynamics of the ecosystem itself. In this study, we examine land-cover changes in a National Park in the Pyrenees mountains (NE Iberian Peninsula), which was designated a protected area 55 years ago. First, we have analyzed spatio-temporal changes in land-cover pattern and forest dynamics from 1957 to 2005. During this period, land-cover dynamics consisted of two main processes: (i) expansion of the forest area and (ii) increasing cover of forests already present in 1957. To analyze the role of the conservation level of the park, we have also compared the results obtained within the park with those of unprotected, peripheral areas. In the two areas with different protection level, dense forests increased throughout the period because of the reduction in forestry activities. The peripheral area showed a higher rate of forest-cover change from 1957 to 2005 compared to the National Park. This higher increase in forest cover in the peripheral area could be related to a higher proportion in the National Park of screes and rocky areas and to the decline and transformation of forest activities in these peripheral, lower elevation areas.     

Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: an example for plant species in Europe

Climate change is one of the main factors that will affect biodiversity in the future and may even cause species extinctions. We suggest a methodology to derive a general relationship between biodiversity change and global warming. In conjunction with other pressure relationships, our relationship can help to assess the combined effect of different pressures to overall biodiversity change and indicate areas that are most at risk. We use a combination of an integrated environmental model (IMAGE) and climate envelope models for European plant species for several climate change scenarios to estimate changes in mean stable area of species and species turnover. We show that if global temperature increases, then both species turnover will increase, and mean stable area of species will decrease in all biomes. The most dramatic changes will occur in Northern Europe, where more than 35% of the species composition in 2100 will be new for that region, and in Southern Europe, where up to 25% of the species now present will have disappeared under the climatic circumstances forecasted for 2100. In Mediterranean scrubland and natural grassland/steppe systems, arctic and tundra systems species turnover is high, indicating major changes in species composition in these ecosystems. The mean stable area of species decreases mostly in Mediterranean scrubland, grassland/steppe systems and warm mixed forests.     

Climate change,food stress,and security in Russia

Farming in higher latitudes is generally believed to benefit from a warmer climate due to extended growing season, reduced risk of frost, availability of more productive cultivars, and an opening potential of farming in northern locations. We analyzed the impact of climate change on production of cereals in Russia and found that this general perception of beneficiary effect of a warmer climate is unlikely to hold, primarily due to increasing risk of droughts in the most important agricultural areas of the country. Past impacts of droughts on food security throughout the twentieth century suggest that a number of adaptation options are available to mitigate the increasing risks of crop failure. We analyze the effectiveness of these measures in connection with a set of climate change projections, under two contrasting scenarios of interregional grain trade: “Fortress Market” and “Open Market.”     

Dangerous climate change and water resources in Australia

Water resources in Australia are sensitive to changes in rainfall. Ongoing droughts in south-west and south-east Australia are stressing water resources in the major cities and in agricultural regions. Climate change scenarios for Australia include reasonable prospects of long-term drying, which would exacerbate these issues. The dryer scenarios would entail major readjustments and costs on natural and human systems.     

Payments for Environmental Services in Latin America as a Tool for Restoration and Rural Development

Payments for Environmental Services (PES) can encourage projects that enhance restoration, production, and rural development. When projects promote differentiated systems by paying farmers for the provision of services, the application of PES requires evaluation of the environmental services provided by each system. We present evaluations of carbon stocks and biodiversity in pure and mixed native tree plantations in Costa Rica. To illustrate how monetary values can be assigned, we discuss a project that awarded PES to silvopastoral systems in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Colombia based on carbon stocks and biodiversity. PES can promote positive environmental attitudes in farmers. Currently this project is being scaled up in Colombia based on their positive experiences with PES as a tool to promote adoption. Compared to PES systems that include only one environmental service, systems that incorporate bundling or layering of multiple services can make sustainable land uses more attractive to farmers and reduce perverse incentives.     

Policy and Science Implications of the Framing and Qualities of Uncertainty in Risks: Toxic and Beneficial Fish from the Baltic Sea

Policy and research issues in the framing and qualities of uncertainties in risks are analyzed, based on the assessments of dioxin-like compounds (DLCs) and other ingredients in Baltic Sea fish, a high-profile case of governance. Risks are framed broadly, to then focus on dioxins and beneficial fatty acids, fish consumption, human health, and science-management links. Hierarchies of uncertainty (data, model, decision rule, and epistemic) and ambiguity (of values) are used to identify issues of scientific and policy contestation and opportunities for resolving them. The associated complexity of risks is illustrated by risk–benefit analyses of fish consumption and by evaluations of guideline values, highlighting value contents and policy factors in presumably scientific decision criteria, and arguments used in multi-dimensional risk and benefit comparisons. These comparisons pose challenges to narrow assessments centered, for e.g., on toxicants or on food benefits, and to more many-sided and balanced risk communication and management. It is shown that structured and contextualized treatment of uncertainties and ambiguities in a reflexive approach can inform balances between wide and narrow focus, detail and generality, and evidence and precaution.     

Increased Bioavailability of Mercury in the Lagoons of Lomé, Togo: The Possible Role of Dredging

Surface sediments of the lagoons of Lomé, Togo, were analyzed for mercury, methylmercury, and trace elements. Concentrations were greater than typical for natural lagoon sediments, and with greater variability within the Eastern lagoon compared to the Western one. The Eastern lagoon is larger and has been dredged in the past, while the Western lagoon, which also receives major waste inputs, has not been dredged and shows less tidal flushing. Accordingly, one naturally believes that the Eastern lagoon is cleaner and probably safe to use due to its natural resources, including fishes to eat. Unexpectedly, we describe here that mercury methylation was greater in the Eastern lagoon, indicating increased bioavailability of mercury, as probably facilitated by past dredging that decreased solid-phase retention of inorganic mercury. Urbanization has historically been more developed in the southern part of the lagoons, which is still reflected in contamination levels of sediment despite dredging, probably because sources of contamination are still more important there today. Such urban contamination emphasizes the need to regulate waste discharges and possible airborne contamination in growing cities of developing countries, and implements environmental and public health monitoring, especially in relation to misbelieves systematically associated with the cleansing effect of dredging activity.