A Nationwide Analysis of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Reservoir Performance in Meeting Operational Targets

The United States (U.S.) Army Corps of Engineers operates reservoirs across the U.S. with 89% of reservoirs constructed prior to 1980. Many reservoirs have experienced changes in environmental conditions (e.g., climate and sediment yield) and societal conditions (e.g., water/energy demand and ecological flows) since construction. These changes may challenge the potential for reservoirs to meet their operational targets (OTs) (management goals). Historic daily reservoir data and OTs were collected for 233 reservoirs. Analyses were developed to identify when and where reservoirs may be systematically departing from OTs in terms of the frequency and magnitude of departure. Fifty‐six percent of reservoirs consistently met operating targets, 30% were borderline, and 13% experienced frequent and large magnitude departures. Fifty‐two percent of reservoirs with large departures were due to shortages and were located in the South Pacific and Southwestern divisions. This work provides a framework to identify reservoir performance in relation to management goals, a necessary step for moving toward adaptive management under changing conditions. All individual reservoir analyses are provided via an interactive data visualization tool: https://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/reservoir-data .     

Evaluating Flow Metric‐Based Stream Classification Systems to Support the Determination of Ecological Flows in North Carolina

Hydroecological classification systems are typically based on an assemblage of streamflow metrics and seek to divide streams into ecologically relevant classes. Assignment of streams to classes is suggested as an initial step in the process of establishing ecological flow standards. We used two distinct hydroecological river classification systems available within North Carolina to evaluate the ability of a hydrologic model to assign the same classes as those determined by observed streamflows and to assess the transferability of such systems to ungaged streams. Class assignments were examined by rate of overall matches, rate of class matches, spatial variability in matches, and time period used in class assignment. The findings of this study indicate assignments of stream class: (1) are inconsistent among different classification systems; (2) differ between observed and modeled data; and (3) are sensitive to the period of record within observed data. One clear source of inconsistency/sensitivity in class assignments lies with the use of threshold values for metrics that distinguish stream classes, such that even small changes in metric values can result in different class assignments. Because these two hydroecological classification systems are representative of other classification systems that rely on quantitative decision thresholds, it can be surmised that the use of such systems based on stream flow metrics is not a reliable approach for guiding ecological flow determinations.     

Thallium in marine plankton

Concentrations of thallium in phytoplankton (0.02 to 0.8 g g^–1), zooplankton (0.03 to 0.5 g g^–1) and ichthyoplankton (0.1 g g^–1) from the central Pacific were comparable , as were the atomic ratios of thallium to calcium (3x10^–6) and to potassium (1x10^–6) in those organisms. These relatively constant ratios, plus the biounlimited ocean profile of thallium, indicate that it is rapidly cycled through plankton in the same manner as potassium, its principal biogeochemical analogue. The higher atomic ratios of thallium to potassium in pelagic clays (6x10^–6) and ferromanganese nodules (4x10^–3) suggest that both biological transport processes and abiotic transport processes influence this trace element's oceanic cycle.     

Screening maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and human parvovirus antibodies

The association between gestational infection with human parvovirus (B19) and fetal loss has increased interest in this virus and demand for diagnostic testing. However, serological assays for B19 are not yet widely available. Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) testing is commonly used during the second trimester to screen for various fetal defects. We attempted to determine whether an elevated level of MSAFP would be an appropriate indication for B19-specific tests. Over a 26-month period, MSAFP tests were performed at Michigan State University for 21 392 women. Sera remaining after that testing were stored frozen. Of these, 22 case samples—from women with MSAFP levels greater than 3·0 multiples of the median (MOM) and pregnancies that ended in fetal loss—and 44 matched control samples—from women with MSAFP levels greater than 0·4 and less than 2·2 MOM and live births at term—were tested for B19 antibodies. None of the 66 samples was IgM positive, while 33 (50 per cent) were IgG positive. The presence of IgG was not significantly associated with case or control status (matched odds ratio=0·77, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·28–2·11). These findings are consistent with other studies indicating prior infection in approximately half of adults and suggest that elevated screening MSAFP levels, in the absence of other evidence of B19 infection, should not prompt B19-specific testing.     

Behaviour and fate of nine recycled water trace organics during managed aquifer recharge in an aerobic aquifer

The fate of nine trace organic compounds was evaluated during a 12month large-scale laboratory column experiment. The columns were packed with aquifer sediment and evaluated under natural aerobic and artificial anaerobic geochemical conditions, to assess the potential for natural attenuation of these compounds during aquifer passage associated with managed aquifer recharge (MAR). The nine trace organic compounds were bisphenol A (BPA), 17β-estradiol (E2), 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2), N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), N-nitrosomorpholine (NMOR), carbamazepine, oxazepam, iohexol and iodipamide. In the low organic carbon content Spearwood sediment, all trace organics were non-retarded with retardation coefficients between 1.0 and 1.2, indicating that these compounds would travel at near groundwater velocities within the aquifer. The natural aerobic geochemical conditions provided a suitable environment for the rapid degradation for BPA, E2, iohexol (half life <1day). Lag-times for the start of degradation of these compounds ranged from <15 to 30days. While iodipamide was persistent under aerobic conditions, artificial reductive geochemical conditions promoted via the addition of ethanol, resulted in rapid degradation (half life <1days). Pharmaceuticals (carbamazepine and oxazepam) and disinfection by-products (NDMA and NMOR) did not degrade under either aerobic or anaerobic aquifer geochemical conditions (half life >50days). Field-based validation experiments with carbamazepine and oxazepam also showed no degradation. If persistent trace organics are present in recycled waters at concentrations in excess of their intended use, natural attenuation during aquifer passage alone may not result in extracted water meeting regulatory requirements. Additional pre treatment of the recycled water would therefore be required.     

Sampling duration calculations

Routine air quality monitoring produces filter samples that, when analyzed, yield the total amount of the aerosol present in the volume of air drawn by the pump in the monitoring device during the given sampling period. From this we obtain an average concentration of the aerosol for the given duration. The samples are therefore really aggregate samples. A natural question then is "what is the effect of the duration of aggregation on the accuracy and precision of the estimate of the quantity of interest?" The answer depends on a number of factors, such as the quantity that is being estimated: a mean, or an extreme value, or some other quantity; the nature of the measurement error--additive versus multiplicative; the costs of laboratory analyses, and so on. In this paper, we investigate these issues when the interest is in estimating the mean concentration of a specified aerosol species over a fixed time period. In particular, we propose a method for determining a sampling duration that will yield the "best estimate" of the mean concentration for a given cost whenever appropriate statistical assumptions hold.     

Characterization of Drought in the South Atlantic,United States

Drought has been less extensively characterized in the humid South Atlantic compared to the arid western United States. Our objective was to characterize drought in the South Atlantic and to understand whether drought has become more severe in this region over time. Here we used monthly streamflow to characterize hydrological drought. Hydrological drought occurred when streamflow fell below the 20th percentile over three consecutive months and terminated once streamflow remained above the 20th percentile for three consecutive months. We characterized the frequency, duration, magnitude, and severity of events using the above definition. Significant changes in drought characteristics were tested with Mann‐Kendall over three periods: 1930‐2010, 1930‐1969, and 1970‐2010. We show that 71% of drought events were shorter than six months, while 7% were multiyear events. There was little evidence of trends in drought characteristics to support the claim of drought becoming more severe in the South Atlantic over the 20th Century. The one exception was a significant increase in the joint probability of nearby basins being simultaneously in drought conditions in the southern portion of the study area from 1970 to 2010. While drought characteristics have changed little through time, decreasing average streamflow in non drought periods coupled with increasing water demand provide the context within which recent multiyear drought events have produced significant stress on existing water infrastructure.     

Mechanistic basis of individual mortality in Pacific salmon during spawning migrations

Reproductive-based migration is a challenging period for many animals, but particularly for Pacific salmonids, which must navigate from the high seas to freshwater natal streams. For the first time, we attempt to answer the question as to why some migratory adult Pacific salmon die en route to spawning grounds. Summer-run sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were used as a model, and the migration behavior of 301 fish was followed by intercepting them in the ocean about 215 km from the mouth of the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada, and implanting a gastric radio transmitter. Before release, telemetered fish were also bio-sampled, which included drawing a blood sample, collecting a gill biopsy, and quantifying energetic status with a microwave energy meter. We tested the predictions that the fish that died prematurely would be characterized by low energy reserves, advanced reproductive development, elevated indicators of stress, and low osmoregulatory preparedness compared with fish that completed their river migration. Just over half (52.3%) of the sockeye tagged were subsequently detected in the Fraser River. Salmon that failed to enter the river had exhibited indicators of stress (e.g., elevated plasma lactate, glucose, and cortisol). Contrary to our prediction, fish that failed to enter the river tended to have higher gross somatic energy and be larger at the time of sampling in the ocean than fish that successfully entered the river. Of the fish that were detected in the river (i.e., 134 fish excluding fishery removals), 9.7% did not migrate beyond the lower reaches (approximately 250 km from ocean), and a further 14.2% reached the upper reaches but failed to reach natal sub-watersheds, whereas the remainder (76.1%) reached natal sub-watersheds. Of these, fish unsuccessful in the lower reaches tended to have a high plasma osmolality in the ocean, whereas fish failing in the upper reaches had lower levels of reproductive hormones in the ocean.     

Persistent organochlorines in the serum of the non-occupationally exposed New Zealand population

Concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and organochlorine pesticides were measured in the serum of a sample of the New Zealand population aged 15 years and older. This was the first study to obtain representative measures of PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs in the adult population of an entire country. Serum samples were obtained in 1996-1997. Potentially occupationally exposed individuals were excluded. Serum samples were pooled according to stratification criteria for area of residence, ethnicity, age, and sex. Of the 80 possible strata, sufficient serum for chemical analysis was available for 60, to which 1,834 individual samples contributed. For the PCDDs and PCDFs, most 2,3,7,8-chlorinated congeners were measured in all strata, with a mean toxic equivalents concentration across all strata of 12.8 ng TEQ kg(-1) lipid. Seven PCB congeners were frequently measured, including the coplanar congeners #126 and #169, quantified in all strata. Of the pesticides and their metabolites, only beta-HCH, dieldrin and pp'-DDE were consistently detected across strata. There was a general trend of increasing concentration with age. There were no consistent differences between the sexes, or between people of Maori (the indigenous people of New Zealand) and non-Maori ethnicity. Concentrations of PCDDs and PCDFs tended to increase in a North-South direction, possibly reflecting greater levels of industrialization and population concentration, and concentrations of the pesticide products were highest in the South, possibly reflecting historical use patterns. Results were consistent with a recent study of concentrations of these compounds in the milk of first-time mothers.