Development and Operational Testing of a Super‐Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Flood‐Forecast Model for a Pacific Northwest River

Coastal catchments in British Columbia, Canada, experience a complex mixture of rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐driven contributions to flood events. Few operational flood‐forecast models are available in the region. Here, we integrated a number of proven technologies in a novel way to produce a super‐ensemble forecast system for the Englishman River, a flood‐prone stream on Vancouver Island. This three‐day‐ahead modeling system utilizes up to 42 numerical weather prediction model outputs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System, combined with six artificial neural network‐based streamflow models representing various slightly different system conceptualizations, all of which were trained exclusively on historical high‐flow data. As such, the system combines relatively low model development times and costs with the generation of fully probabilistic forecasts reflecting uncertainty in the simulation of both atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic dynamics. Results from operational testing by British Columbia's flood forecasting agency during the 2013‐2014 storm season suggest that the prediction system is operationally useful and robust.     

Failure rate evaluation with influencing factors

A new methodology for failure rate evaluation with influencing factors is proposed. A quantitative part allows integrating potential available data from feedback. Then, a qualitative analysis deals with influencing factors such as design, environment, and use to provide more coherent and argued results. The main idea is to use some criteria to fix the failure rate within a prior interval, according to the influencing factor states. To this end, the system is broken up into main component groups. When a component group is susceptible to an influencing factor, its baseline failure rate is multiplied by the relevant influencing coefficient. A seven-step methodology is presented to define the model, identify and rate the influencing factors, set indicator functions taking the uncertainties into account, and calculate the influencing coefficients. The proposed methodology is global enough to be usable for a large number of safety instrumented systems and influencing factors. For example, an application regarding safety pressure relief valves is given. The prospect is for more efficient risk management by acting both on systems and influencing factors.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in breast milk of first-time Irish mothers: impact of the 2008 dioxin incident in Ireland

The 2008 dioxin incident in Ireland resulted in elevated concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Irish pork and pork products, due to the consumption of contaminated animal feed by pigs. In order to investigate any resulting impact on the Irish population, these contaminants were measured in pooled breast milk samples from 109 first-time mothers, collected in 2010. A comparison of the results with similar data from 2002 revealed generally lower concentrations of PCDD/Fs and dioxin-like PCBs in the 2010 samples, confirming the declining trend reported by many authors. Contaminant concentration levels for both 2002 and 2010 were generally slightly lower than those reported internationally, with a mean combined PCDD/F and PCB WHO-TEQ of 9.66 pg g⁻¹ fat, for an overall pooled sample of milk from 2010. An apparent slight increase in PCDFs was observed between 2002 and 2010 (from 2.73 pg WHO-TEQ g⁻¹ fat to 3.21 pg WHO-TEQ g⁻¹ fat), with the main contributory congener being 2,3,4,7,8-PentaCDF. While it cannot be totally discounted that the slight increase in 2,3,4,7,8-PentaCDF and in the overall PCDF WHO-TEQ in breast milk could be attributable to consumption of Irish pork during the 2008 incident, we consider that it is more likely that this was due to other factors, including the predominantly urban/industrial sampling locations for the 2010 samples, compared to 2002.     

Carbamazepine, carbamazepine epoxide and dihydroxycarbamazepine sorption to soil and occurrence in a wastewater reuse site in Tunisia

Although a number of manufactured nanoparticles are applied for the medical and clinical purposes, the understanding of interaction between nanomaterials and biological systems are still insufficient. Using nematode Caenorhabditis elegans model organism, we here investigated the in vivo toxicity or safety of hydroxylated fullerene nanoparticles known to detoxify anti-cancer drug-induced oxidative damages in mammals. The survival ratio of C. elegans rapidly decreased by the uptake of nanoparticles from their L4 larval stage with resulting in shortened lifespan (20 d). Both reproduction rate and body size of C. elegans were also reduced after exposure to 100 μg mL⁻¹ of fullerol. We found ectopic cell corpses caused by apoptotic cell death in the adult worms grown with fullerol nanoparticles. By the mutation of core pro-apoptotic regulator genes, ced-3 and ced-4, these nanoparticle-induced cell death were significantly suppressed, and the viability of animals consequently increased despite of nanoparticle uptake. The apoptosis-mediated toxicity of nanoparticles particularly led to the disorder of digestion system in the animals containing a large number of undigested foods in their intestine. These results demonstrated that the water-soluble fullerol nanoparticles widely used in medicinal applications have a potential for inducing apoptotic cell death in multicellular organisms despite of their antioxidative detoxifying property.     

Ozone pre-treatment as improver of PAH removal during anaerobic digestion of urban sludge

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are ubiquitous persistent pollutants. They may accumulate in sludge during wastewater treatment because of their low biodegradability and their hydrophobic characteristics. Combination of ozonation and anaerobic digestion may be efficient to remove PAHs naturally present in sludge. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of ozone pre-treatment, with and without surfactant addition, on the anaerobic degradation of 12 PAHs (from low to high molecular weight). Under anaerobic digestion without ozonation pre-treatment, the highest removals were obtained for the lightest PAHs (3-aromatic rings). Ozonation pre-treatment of sludge allowed to increase biodegradability or bioavailability of each PAH, and the PAH removals were well correlated to the PAH solubility. Finally, addition of tyloxapol before sludge ozone pre-treatment had antagonist effects on PAH removal during anaerobic digestion: negative impact on anaerobic ecosystem activity and improvement of PAH bioaccessibility (particularly the PAHs with the highest octanol water partition coefficients).     

Concentrations and specific loads of brominated flame retardants in sewage sludge

Many substances related to human activities end up in wastewater and accumulate in sewage sludge. The present study focuses on two classes of brominated flame retardants: polybrominated diphenyl ethers (BDE28, BDE47, BDE49, BDE66, BDE85, BDE99, BDE100, BDE119, BDE138, BDE153, BDE154, BDE183, BDE209) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) detected in sewage sludge collected from a monitoring network in Switzerland. Mean concentrations (n=16 wastewater treatment plants) were 310, 149, 95 and 17microg per kg dry matter for decaBDE, HBCD, penta- and octaBDE, respectively. These numbers correspond well with other studies from European countries. DecaBDE, HBCD, penta- and octaBDE showed average specific loads (load per connected inhabitant per year) in sludge of 6.1, 3.3, 2.0 and 0.3mgcap(-1)yr(-1), respectively. This is in line with consumption and storage of the compounds in the environment and the anthroposphere. Discrepancies observed for octaBDE and HBCD can be explained by the release from materials where these compounds are incorporated in and/or their degradation during anaerobic sludge treatment. Loads from different types of monitoring sites showed that brominated flame retardants ending up in sewage sludge originate mainly from surface runoff, industrial and domestic wastewater.