Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

Life history costs of olfactory status signalling in mice

Large body size confers a competitive advantage in animal contests but does not always determine the outcome. Here we explore the trade-off between short-term achievement of high social status and longer-term life history costs in animals which vary in competitive ability. Using laboratory mice, Mus musculus, as a model system, we show that small competitors can initially maintain dominance over larger males by increasing investment in olfactory status signalling (scent-marking), but only at the cost of reduced growth rate and body size. As a result they become more vulnerable to dominance reversals later in life. Our results also provide the first empirical information about life history costs of olfactory status signals. Received: 15 December 1999 / Revised: 6 June 2000 / Accepted: 24 June 2000     

Growth of plankton algae as a function of N-concentration,measured by means of batch technique

Employing a special batch technique which involves extremely low concentrations of the alga Selenastrum capricornutum, it is shown that a growth rate of ca. 75% of optimum growth occurs at a concentration of 0.02 g-at N(NH₄ ⁺) l^-1. The low concentrations of this N-source in the oligotrophic parts of the oceans (ca. 0.06 g-at l^-1) thus give rise to a borderline deficiency. As the half-saturation constant (K _S) for growth was recorded at 0.05 g-at N(NO₃ ^-), this ion can hardly be of much importance at the low concentrations present in these parts of the oceans. It is wrong to assert that N is the primary limiting nutrient. Phosphate also is found at concentrations giving rise to a borderline deficiency.     

Seaweed sex pheromones and their degradation products frequently suppress amphipod feeding but rarely suppress sea urchin feeding

Summary. A diverse group of brown seaweeds produce bouquets of C₁₁ metabolites, some of which act as pheromones that cue gamete release or attract sperm to eggs following release. We demonstrate that these C₁₁ metabolites and their degradation products also frequently and strongly deter feeding by the herbivorous amphipod Ampithoe longimana, but rarely by the herbivorous sea urchin Arbacia punctulata. Across the range of concentrations tested, seven of twelve C₁₁ metabolites or mixtures that we tested deterred feeding by the amphipod, but only two of eleven deterred the sea urchin. For those compounds where we could rigorously contrast the magnitude of deterrence against the amphipod with the magnitude of deterrence against the urchin, the amphipod was deterred significantly more than the urchin by five of six metabolites. Thus, C₁₁ compounds were more frequently and more strongly deterrent to the amphipod than to the sea urchin. These findings for C₁₁ metabolites conflict with previous investigations, where other classes of seaweed chemical defenses have been shown to deter feeding by large mobile herbivores like urchins and fishes but to be relatively ineffective against mesograzers, especially the species of amphipod that we used here. Our results suggest that C₁₁ metabolites are unusual among the known seaweed chemical defenses in that they are especially effective against mesograzers, which often consume seaweed spores, zygotes, and juveniles. The high concentrations of C₁₁ metabolites in brown algal eggs could allow these defenses to be especially important in defending gametes, zygotes, or young sporelings from herbivorous mesograzers. Received 26 February 1998; accepted 9 April 1998.