Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.     

A review of selection‐based tests of abiotic surrogates for species representation

Because conservation planners typically lack data on where species occur, environmental surrogates—including geophysical settings and climate types—have been used to prioritize sites within a planning area. We reviewed 622 evaluations of the effectiveness of abiotic surrogates in representing species in 19 study areas. Sites selected using abiotic surrogates represented more species than an equal number of randomly selected sites in 43% of tests (55% for plants) and on average improved on random selection of sites by about 8% (21% for plants). Environmental diversity (ED) (42% median improvement on random selection) and biotically informed clusters showed promising results and merit additional testing. We suggest 4 ways to improve performance of abiotic surrogates. First, analysts should consider a broad spectrum of candidate variables to define surrogates, including rarely used variables related to geographic separation, distance from coast, hydrology, and within‐site abiotic diversity. Second, abiotic surrogates should be defined at fine thematic resolution. Third, sites (the landscape units prioritized within a planning area) should be small enough to ensure that surrogates reflect species’ environments and to produce prioritizations that match the spatial resolution of conservation decisions. Fourth, if species inventories are available for some planning units, planners should define surrogates based on the abiotic variables that most influence species turnover in the planning area. Although species inventories increase the cost of using abiotic surrogates, a modest number of inventories could provide the data needed to select variables and evaluate surrogates. Additional tests of nonclimate abiotic surrogates are needed to evaluate the utility of conserving nature's stage as a strategy for conservation planning in the face of climate change.     

Using abiotic variables to predict importance of sites for species representation

In systematic conservation planning, species distribution data for all sites in a planning area are used to prioritize each site in terms of the site's importance toward meeting the goal of species representation. But comprehensive species data are not available in most planning areas and would be expensive to acquire. As a shortcut, ecologists use surrogates, such as occurrences of birds or another well‐surveyed taxon, or land types defined from remotely sensed data, in the hope that sites that represent the surrogates also represent biodiversity. Unfortunately, surrogates have not performed reliably. We propose a new type of surrogate, predicted importance, that can be developed from species data for a q% subset of sites. With species data from this subset of sites, importance can be modeled as a function of abiotic variables available at no charge for all terrestrial areas on Earth. Predicted importance can then be used as a surrogate to prioritize all sites. We tested this surrogate with 8 sets of species data. For each data set, we used a q% subset of sites to model importance as a function of abiotic variables, used the resulting function to predict importance for all sites, and evaluated the number of species in the sites with highest predicted importance. Sites with the highest predicted importance represented species efficiently for all data sets when q = 25% and for 7 of 8 data sets when q = 20%. Predicted importance requires less survey effort than direct selection for species representation and meets representation goals well compared with other surrogates currently in use. This less expensive surrogate may be useful in those areas of the world that need it most, namely tropical regions with the highest biodiversity, greatest biodiversity loss, most severe lack of inventory data, and poorly developed protected area networks.     

Nature apps: Waiting for the revolution

Apps are small task-orientated programs with the potential to integrate the computational and sensing capacities of smartphones with the power of cloud computing, social networking, and crowdsourcing. They have the potential to transform how humans interact with nature, cause a step change in the quantity and resolution of biodiversity data, democratize access to environmental knowledge, and reinvigorate ways of enjoying nature. To assess the extent to which this potential is being exploited in relation to nature, we conducted an automated search of the Google Play Store using 96 nature-related terms. This returned data on ~36 304 apps, of which ~6301 were nature-themed. We found that few of these fully exploit the full range of capabilities inherent in the technology and/or have successfully captured the public imagination. Such breakthroughs will only be achieved by increasing the frequency and quality of collaboration between environmental scientists, information engineers, computer scientists, and interested publics.     

Use of genetic,climatic, and microbiological data to inform reintroduction of a regionally extinct butterfly

Species reintroductions are increasingly used as means of mitigating biodiversity loss. Besides habitat quality at the site targeted for reintroduction, the choice of source population can be critical for success. The butterfly Melanargia russiae (Esper´s marbled white) was extirpated from Hungary over 100 years ago, and a reintroduction program has recently been approved. We used museum specimens of this butterfly, mitochondrial DNA data (mtDNA), endosymbiont screening, and climatic‐similarity analyses to determine which extant populations should be used for its reintroduction. The species displayed 2 main mtDNA lineages across its range: 1 restricted to Iberia and southern France (Iberian lineage) and another found throughout the rest of its range (Eurasian lineage). These 2 lineages possessed highly divergent wsp alleles of the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. The century‐old Hungarian specimens represented an endemic haplotype belonging to the Eurasian lineage, differing by one mutation from the Balkan and eastern European populations. The Hungarian populations of M. russiae occurred in areas with a colder and drier climate relative to most sites with extant known populations. Our results suggest the populations used for reintroduction to Hungary should belong to the Eurasian lineage, preferably from eastern Ukraine (genetically close and living in areas with the highest climatic similarity). Materials stored in museum collections can provide unique opportunities to document historical genetic diversity and help direct conservation.     

Maternal rank affects reproductive success of male Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus): evidence from DNA fingerprinting

Summary Paternity determination by oligonucleotide fingerprinting confirms that maternal rank affects the reproductive success of male Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus). High-born males began to reproduce significantly earlier and sired significantly more infants surviving to at least 1 year of age during the first 4 years of their reproductive career than low-born males. This relation was independent of the natal/non-natal status of the males, and was not affected by external conditions such as the level of intrasexual competition or the number of fertilizable females. Since high-ranking females in this population produced significantly more male offspring than low-ranking females, the data on sex ratio adjustment and comparative breeding success of sons and daughters are consistent with the predictions of the Trivers-Willard hypothesis. Offprint requests to: A. Paul     

Colonization and early succession on artificial hard substrata by meiofauna

An experiment was undertaken at Farol Island, Brazil, to examine colonization of bare aluminium surfaces by microbes and meiofauna. It was hypothesized that a primary source of meiofaunal colonists was sediment resuspended during upwelling events, two of which occurred during the experiment. Microbial biofilms formed on the experimental substrata within 1 day, and continued to develop throughout the experimental period. Among meiofaunal groups copepods also appeared on the first day, and nematodes on the second. Meiofaunal community structure developed in three main phases: an initial phase of 2 days, characterized by low abundances of copepods; a second phase during the first upwelling period characterized by higher abundances of copepods and also by turbellarians; and a third phase from day 13 onwards characterized by relatively stable abundances of a range of taxa including copepods, cirripedes, nematodes and ostracods. Nematode assemblages also developed in three phases, but with different timings coinciding with upwelling events: an initial phase, from the beginning of the experiment to day 9, characterized by few species and low (or no) abundances; a second phase following the first upwelling characterized by moderate abundances of Chromadorina, Chromadorella, Daptonema and Euchromadora sp. 3; a third phase following the second upwelling period (from day 26 onwards) in which Daptonema disappeared and the assemblage was characterized by moderate to high abundances of Euchromadora (species 1 and 2) and Chromadorella. Although shifts in nematode assemblage structure coincided with upwelling events no evidence was found for sediments being the primary source of colonizers on the aluminium substrata, in contrast to our hypothesis.     

液相色谱/质谱用于饮用水和地下水中的苯脲及三嗪草类除草剂的确认分析

本文介绍了液相色谱／大气压化学电离-质谱联用技术作为确认方法，检测饮用水和地下水中苯脲及三嗪草类除草剂的残留。共分析了16种除草剂，同时对分析方法进行了验证，其中标准偏差、离散度等结果均能满足饮用水的标准方法指南。     

Responses of pond-breeding amphibians to wildfire: short-term patterns in occupancy and colonization.

Wildland fires are expected to become more frequent and severe in many ecosystems, potentially posing a threat to many sensitive species. We evaluated the effects of a large, stand-replacement wildfire on three species of pond-breeding amphibians by estimating changes in occupancy of breeding sites during the three years before and after the fire burned 42 of 83 previously surveyed wetlands. Annual occupancy and colonization for each species was estimated using recently developed models that incorporate detection probabilities to provide unbiased parameter estimates. We did not find negative effects of the fire on the occupancy or colonization rates of the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum). Instead, its occupancy was higher across the study area after the fire, possibly in response to a large snowpack that may have facilitated colonization of unoccupied wetlands. Naive data (uncorrected for detection probability) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) initially led to the conclusion of increased occupancy and colonization in wetlands that burned. After accounting for temporal and spatial variation in detection probabilities, however, it was evident that these parameters were relatively stable in both areas before and after the fire. We found a similar discrepancy between naive and estimated occupancy of A. macrodactylum that resulted from different detection probabilities in burned and control wetlands. The boreal toad (Bufo boreas) was not found breeding in the area prior to the fire but colonized several wetlands the year after they burned. Occupancy by B. boreas then declined during years 2 and 3 following the fire. Our study suggests that the amphibian populations we studied are resistant to wildfire and that B. boreas may experience short-term benefits from wildfire. Our data also illustrate how naive presence-non-detection data can provide misleading results.     

The importance of handling time for the flight directionality in bees

Summary Individual workers of the honeybee (Apis mellifera), trained to collect food from a patch of artificial flowers, were used to test the following hypotheses about the mechanism leading to a decrease in flight directionality when moving from one flower to the next. Directionality decreases with (1) an increasing amount of energy taken from a flower, (2) an increasing amount of time spent on a flower, or (3) an increasing profitability of the flower, i.e. rate of nectar uptake. The bees were tested singly on an arrangement with equidistant flowers. They could move from a decision point forward, right, left, or backwards to the next flower. The rewards at the decision point were altered. When rewards at this point were compared that offered the same quality of nectar (50% sugar solution), the time hypothesis (2) was consistent with the observed behaviour of the bees. When conditions were compared that involved two different reward qualities (50% and 25% sugar solation), none of the original hypotheses could entirely account for the results.It is suggested that a slight modification of the time hypothesis would be consistent with the observations: The bees might possibly forget their arrival direction on the flower with increasing time, but forgetting the direction of the last flower visited is intensified with more concentrated rewards.