Transabdominal chorionic villus sampling: Fetal loss rate in relation to maternal and gestational age

In this paper we report the fetal loss rate in relation to both maternal and gestational age in 1764 pregnant women who underwent transabdominal chorionic villus sampling (TA-CVS) between January 1986 and August 1990. The fetal loss rate, considered as a proportion of continuing pregnancies, decreased with advancing gestational age at sampling from 4.3 per cent before 9 weeks to 0.4 per cent at or after 13 weeks, the difference being statistically significant (p <0.025). The fetal loss rate increased from 1.6 per cent in women under 30 to 2.4 per cent in women of 40 years or over, but the difference was not statistically significant. Considering that the total fetal loss rate before 28 weeks' gestation was on average 1.91 percent (1.3 per cent under 35 years and 2.8 per cent in women of 35 or over), we believe that TA-CVS is a safe and effective technique for prenatal diagnosis of genetic diseases.     

DNA-based prenatal diagnosis of the infantile form of neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (INCL,CLN1)

Eleven fetuses at risk for the infantile form of neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (INCL, CLN1) were studied using DNA markers and the results were compared with the results of electron microscopy (EM) of chorionic villus specimens from pregnancies in the first or early second trimester of pregnancy. In four cases, the prenatal diagnosis was made independently with both methods, and in seven cases, the EM diagnosis was confirmed postnatally or from autopsy material using RFLP analysis. The two methods gave concordant results in all cases. The DNA analysis based on RFLP haplotypes also for the first time facilitates reliable carrier diagnostics. RFLP analysis based on polymorphic markers closely linked to the INCL locus is now available for prenatal diagnosis of this fatal brain disease, whose biochemical background is totally unknown and for which no treatment is available.     

Transabdominal villus sampling in early second trimester: A safe sampling method for women of advanced age

Transabdominal chorionic villus sampling (TA-CVS) was performed in 707 viable singleton pregnancies to exclude chromosomal abnormalities. Maternal age ranged between 36 and 49 years (mean 37·9 years); gestational age varied between 10·2 and 18·3 weeks (mean 13·3 weeks). In 639 women (90·4 per cent), a sufficient amount of chorionic tissue (⩾ 10 mg) was obtained after one needle insertion; in 66 women (9·3 per cent) two insertions were needed. An abnormal chromosome pattern was established in 19 cases (2·9 per cent). Vaginal bleeding or spotting within 28 days after TA-CVS occurred in 11 cases (1·5 per cent). The completed follow-up of 678 chromosomally normal pregnancies showed an overall fetal loss rate of 2·6 per cent before 28 weeks. The overall perinatal mortality was 0·9 per cent. When relating fetal loss to gestational age at TA-CVS, this was 6·6 per cent in women sampled before 12 weeks against only 1·8 per cent after 12 weeks. At the same time, the percentage of fetal loss occurring within 2 weeks following the procedure was 75 and 30 per cent, respectively. It is suggested that these data reflect the decline in spontaneous abortion rate during this particular period of pregnancy. It is concluded that TA-CVS is an effective procedure which, when performed after the natural decrease of fetal loss, appears to be a safe option for women of advanced maternal age.     

First-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and human chorionic gonadotropin screening for chromosome defects

The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of combined maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) and maternal serum human chorionic gonadotropin (MShCG) screening in detecting chromosome defects in the first trimester of pregnancy. Sera of 492 women (previously assayed for MSAFP) were analysed for MShCG under code without knowledge of cytogenetic results. Overall, 48 of 492 patients (9·8 per cent) had either an MSAFP multiple of the median ⩽0·5 or an MShCG β/a z ratio multiple of the median ⩽ 0·25, eight of whom had a fetus with a serious chromosome defect. A third of fetuses with Down' s syndrome and 83 per cent with trisomy 18 were detected at a potential‘cost’ of providing chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis in 8·6 percent of women screened.     

Effects of Residential Development on Forest-Dwelling Neotropical Migrant Songbirds

Many bird species are in local or regional decline because of habitat loss or degradation. We attempted to disentangle the effects of residential development from the effects of forest size on forest-bird communities, with particular emphasis on Neotropical migrant species. Two variables were examined for their influence on avian diversity and abundance: forest size and the number of houses outside a forest within 100 m of the edge. We found that Neotropical migrants consistently increased in number and abundance as forest size increased. Of greater interest, we found that the number of houses surrounding a forest severely undermined its suitability for Neotropical migrants. Neotropical migrants consistently decreased in diversity and abundance as the level of adjacent development increased, regardless of forest size. The effects of development were striking: 4-ha woodlots without any nearby houses had on average a richer, more abundant Neotropical community than did 25-ha urban woodlots. No predictable pattern of change concerning development or forest size was observed for short-distance migrants or permanent residents. Current planning regulations generally permit housing right up to forest edges. This practice may prevent protection of ecological features within the forest. Threshold distances for housing developments around forests need to be determined to prevent or minimize adverse effects on features and functions within the forests.     

Past reproductive success affects future habitat selection

Correlational studies have shown that an individual's past reproductive success often increases its breeding site fidelity (i.e., the tendency to return to a previously occupied location), suggesting that individuals use their reproductive experience to assess habitat quality. However, the causality of the relationship between reproductive success and site fidelity is still uncertain. In a field experiment, the effect of mating success on site fidelity was isolated from potential confounding variables in a territorial dragonfly, the eastern amberwing (Perithemis tenera). The experiment controlled for site quality, intrinsic characteristics of males, previous territorial experience at the site, arrival order, and territorial evictions. Males that were prevented from mating were much more likely to change sites the following day than control males that were allowed to mate. This result was not affected by age, the amount of time a male spent on the site, or mortality. These results imply that individuals use their own reproductive success to assess the quality of the habitat. The benefit to an individual of using its reproductive success to determine habitat quality is discussed relative to other sources of information. Received: 31 May 1996 / Accepted: 31 January 1997     

Kinship,demography, and belding's ground squirrel nepotism

Summary Social behavior and demography of a freeliving population of individually marked Belding's ground squirrels (Spermophilus beldingi) were studied from 1974 through 1980 at Tioga Pass, California. Relative frequencies of fighting, chasing, cooperation in chasing conspecifics, and assisting conspecifics who were being chased were recorded for adult (1-year-old) female kin of nine different degrees of matrilineal relatedness. The animals' mortality and dispersal patterns were also analyzed.Mothers and daughters, littermate sisters, and nonlittermate (half-) sisters were cooperative; their cooperation varied in proportion to relatedness. In contrast, grandmothers and granddaughters, aunts and nieces, great grandmothers and great granddaughters, aunts and half-nieces, first cousins, and first cousins once removed did not cooperate; their behavior was indistinguishable from that of nonrelatives.While there were no consistent spatial differences among the burrows of the nine categories of female kin, only mothers and daughters, littermate sisters, and nonlittermate sisters were consistently alive simultaneously. The apparent correspondence between the relatives that received social favoritism and those that consistently co-occurred suggests that demography, particularly survivorship, may have determined the extent of ground squirrel favoritism, while kinship influenced its pattern.     

Integrated ecological models: simulation of socio-cultural constraints on ecological dynamics

We suggest that general systems theory provides a common philosophical basis for dialog between ecological and social scientists interested in studying the reciprocal interactions of humans and their environment. We (1) provide a synopsis of the ‘systems approach' as viewed from the biological and social sciences, respectively; (2) develop a conceptual framework for the explicit linking of ecological and social variables, and (3) draw upon game theoretic results of the Prisoner's Dilemma to represent human decision-making quantitatively in a model that simulates the tragedy of the commons. The model consists of 5 submodels that represent the ‘observers world' and each of 4 ‘participant's worlds.' The observer's-world represents the decision processes, either Optimize or Tit-for-Tat, by which each of 2 users decides to add or remove animals. The 4 perceived worlds represent hypothetical situations in which (1) persons A and B both add an animal; (2) A adds and B does not; (3) B adds and A does not, and (4) neither A nor B add an animal. Simulation results indicate that net worth of the community and of each person individually under Tit-for-Tat is more than double the net worth attained under Optimize. Replacement of the static payoff matrix assumed in game theory with a dynamic quantitative model illustrates how ‘norm-based' approaches to ecosystem management can outperform optimizing approaches based on predicted outcomes. Although ‘soft systems' techniques may better help decision-makers reach norm-based agreements on ecosystem management, quantitative models have more explanatory value, and if developed sufficiently such models could incorporate complex social dimensions that would enhance further their explanatory value.     

Naturally occurring radionuclides in drinking water: An exercise in risk benefit analysis

The scientific background information describing the occurrence, measurement, health effects, treatment technology, risk assessment and economic consequences of the presence of naturally occurring radionuclides in drinking water are described for 60,000 public drinking water supplies. The relevant data for the occurrence of radium, uranium and radon in drinking water supplies are discussed and analysed. Radon is of importance because it is released in the process of taking showers and baths and in washing dishes and clothes. Its progeny is then inhaled, leading to the risk of lung cancer. Radium and uranium can both cause bone cancer. The range of average occurrence of natural radioactivity in drinking water is as follows:²²⁶Ra, 0.3 to 0.8 pCi L^–1;²²⁸Ra, 0.4 to 1.0 pCi L^–1; uranium, 0.3 to 2.0 pCi L^–1 and²²²Rn, 500 to 600 pCi L^–1. The estimated lifetime risks due to the mean groundwater concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides are:²²⁶Ra and^228Ra, 1.0 10^–5; uranium, 2.0 × 10^–6 and radon, 4.0 × 10^–4. The cost to reduce total radium levels to 5.0 pCi L^–1 is about $9 million. An equivalent expenditure would be required to reduce radon levels to about 4,000 pCi L^–1, or uranium levels to about 100 pCi L^–1. The problem of maximizing the total mortality and the reduction per unit dollar outlay per unit dollar cost for the uranium/radon case is examined.The thoughts and ideas expressed in this paper are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the US Environmental Protection Agency.This paper is published as a contribution to discussion on this problem and not as a paper providing new research data.