Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.     

Bird‐community responses to habitat creation in a long‐term,large‐scale natural experiment

Ecosystem function and resilience are compromised when habitats become fragmented due to land‐use change. This has led to national and international conservation strategies aimed at restoring habitat extent and improving functional connectivity (i.e., maintaining dispersal processes). However, biodiversity responses to landscape‐scale habitat creation and the relative importance of spatial and temporal scales are poorly understood, and there is disagreement over which conservation strategies should be prioritized. We used 160 years of historic post‐agricultural woodland creation as a natural experiment to evaluate biodiversity responses to habitat creation in a landscape context. Birds were surveyed in 101 secondary, broadleaf woodlands aged 10–160 years with ≥80% canopy cover and in landscapes with 0‐17% broadleaf woodland cover within 3000 m. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to examine the direct and indirect relationships between bird abundance and diversity, ecological continuity, patch characteristics, and landscape structure and quantified the relative conservation value of local and landscape scales for bird communities. Ecological continuity indirectly affected overall bird abundance and species richness through its effects on stand structure, but had a weaker influence (effect size near 0) on the abundance and diversity of species most closely associated with woodland habitats. This was probably because woodlands were rapidly colonized by woodland generalists in ≤10 years (minimum patch age) but were on average too young (median 50 years) to be colonized by woodland specialists. Local patch characteristics were relatively more important than landscape characteristics for bird communities. Based on our results, biodiversity responses to habitat creation depended on local‐ and landscape‐scale factors that interacted across time and space. We suggest that there is a need for further studies that focus on habitat creation in a landscape context and that knowledge gained from studies of habitat fragmentation and loss should be used to inform habitat creation with caution because the outcomes are not necessarily reciprocal.     

The value of flexibility in conservation financing

Land‐acquisition strategies employed by conservation organizations vary in their flexibility. Conservation‐planning theory largely fails to reflect this by presenting models that are either extremely inflexible—parcel acquisitions are irreversible and budgets are fixed—or extremely flexible—previously acquired parcels can readily be sold. This latter approach, the selling of protected areas, is infeasible or problematic in many situations. We considered the value to conservation organizations of increasing the flexibility of their land‐acquisition strategies through their approach to financing deals. Specifically, we modeled 2 acquisition‐financing methods commonly used by conservation organizations: borrowing and budget carry‐over. Using simulated data, we compared results from these models with those from an inflexible fixed‐budget model and an extremely flexible selling model in which previous acquisitions could be sold to fund new acquisitions. We then examined 3 case studies of how conservation organizations use borrowing and budget carry‐over in practice. Model comparisons showed that borrowing and budget carry‐over always returned considerably higher rewards than the fixed‐budget model. How they performed relative to the selling model depended on the relative conservation value of past acquisitions. Both the models and case studies showed that incorporating flexibility through borrowing or budget carry‐over gives conservation organizations the ability to purchase parcels of higher conservation value than when budgets are fixed without the problems associated with the selling of protected areas.     

ESTIMATION OF LONG-TERM DISCHARGE STATISTICS BY REGIONAL ADJUSTMENT1

ABSTRACT: A regional adjustment relationship was developed to estimate long-term (30-year) monthly median discharges from short term (three-year) records. This method differs from traditional approaches in that it is based on site-specific discharge data but does not require correlation of these data with discharges from a single hydrologically similar long-term gage. The method is shown to be statistically robust, and applicable to statistics other than the median.     

Tagging Diesel and Residential Oil Furnace Emissions in Roanoke,Virginia, with Enriched Isotopes of Samarium

Stable isotopic tracers were used in Roanoke, Virginia, to tag particulate emissions from diesel trucks and residential oil furnaces, two sources of soot and PAHs which cannot be differentiated on the basis of known constituents. Approximately 1.6 g of enriched ¹⁴⁹Sm were used to tag 264 m³ of diesel fuel burned by the city bus and truck fleets; 0.39 g of ¹⁵⁰Sm were used to tag 106 m³ of residential heating oil. Picogram amounts of the tracers were determined simultaneously by thermal-ionization mass spectrometry in fine particles collected within the city at signal-to-noise ratios as large as 6000. These results demonstrate the feasibility of tracing particles from multiple combustion sources with stable, separated isotopes.     

Pyrolysis of waste tyres: A review

Approximately 1.5 billion tyres are produced each year which will eventually enter the waste stream representing a major potential waste and environmental problem. However, there is growing interest in pyrolysis as a technology to treat tyres to produce valuable oil, char and gas products. The most common reactors used are fixed-bed (batch), screw kiln, rotary kiln, vacuum and fluidised-bed. The key influence on the product yield, and gas and oil composition, is the type of reactor used which in turn determines the temperature and heating rate. Tyre pyrolysis oil is chemically very complex containing aliphatic, aromatic, hetero-atom and polar fractions. The fuel characteristics of the tyre oil shows that it is similar to a gas oil or light fuel oil and has been successfully combusted in test furnaces and engines. The main gases produced from the pyrolysis of waste tyres are H₂, C₁–C₄ hydrocarbons, CO₂, CO and H₂S. Upgrading tyre pyrolysis products to high value products has concentrated on char upgrading to higher quality carbon black and to activated carbon. The use of catalysts to upgrade the oil to a aromatic-rich chemical feedstock or the production of hydrogen from waste tyres has also been reported. Examples of commercial and semi-commercial scale tyre pyrolysis systems show that small scale batch reactors and continuous rotary kiln reactors have been developed to commercial scale.     

Evolving social influence in large populations

Darwinian studies of collective human behaviour, which deal fluently with change and are grounded in the details of social influence among individuals, have much to offer “social” models from the physical sciences which have elegant statistical regularities. Although Darwinian evolution is often associated with selection and adaptation, “neutral” models of drift are equally relevant. Building on established neutral models, we present a general, yet highly parsimonious, stochastic model, which generates an entire family of real-world, right-skew socio-economic distributions, including exponential, winner-take-all, power law tails of varying exponents, and power laws across the whole data. The widely used Barabási and Albert (1999) Science 286: 509-512 “B-A” model of preferential attachment is a special case of this general model. In addition, the model produces the continuous turnover observed empirically within these distributions. Previous preferential attachment models have generated specific distributions with turnover using arbitrary add-on rules, but turnover is an inherent feature of our model. The model also replicates an intriguing new relationship, observed across a range of empirical studies, between the power law exponent and the proportion of data represented in the distribution.