Pathways of rural change: an integrated assessment of metabolic patterns in emerging ruralities

While rural transformations are nothing new in human history, current processes of rural change occur under multiple forces at an unprecedented pace, involving profound and unexpected changes in land use and users, and rapid transformations in the metabolic patterns of rural systems. The present special section aims to shed light on current drivers and pathways of rural change by analyzing, under a common conceptual and theoretical framework, examples of new ruralities that are emerging as responses across different world regions. Within this context, this introduction presents: (1) common research questions of the six presented cases of rural change; (2) the general theoretical and methodological framework of integrated assessment of societal metabolism adopted to analyze rural systems and (3) the main contributions and conclusions that could be drawn from six context-specific case studies from Asia, Latin America and Europe.     

Nonparametric functional data estimation applied to ozone data: prediction and extreme value analysis

The study of extreme values and prediction of ozone data is an important topic of research when dealing with environmental problems. Classical extreme value theory is usually used in air-pollution studies. It consists in fitting a parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to a data set of extreme values, and using the estimated distribution to compute return levels and other quantities of interest. Here, we propose to estimate these values using nonparametric functional data methods. Functional data analysis is a relatively new statistical methodology that generally deals with data consisting of curves or multi-dimensional variables. In this paper, we use this technique, jointly with nonparametric curve estimation, to provide alternatives to the usual parametric statistical tools. The nonparametric estimators are applied to real samples of maximum ozone values obtained from several monitoring stations belonging to the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) in the UK. The results show that nonparametric estimators work satisfactorily, outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric estimators. Functional data analysis is also used to predict stratospheric ozone concentrations. We show an application, using the data set of mean monthly ozone concentrations in Arosa, Switzerland, and the results are compared with those obtained by classical time series (ARIMA) analysis.     

Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes.     

Agricultural adjustment,population dynamics and forests redistribution in a subtropical watershed of NW Argentina

Patterns of land-use and land-cover change are usually grouped into one of two categories defined by the dominant trend: (1) deforestation resulting from expanding agriculture and (2) forest expansion, usually related to the abandonment of marginal lands. At regional scale, however, both processes can occur simultaneously even in the absence of net change. Given the focus on net change, such redistribution of agricultural and natural and seminatural lands has been generally overlooked. The interaction between agriculture modernization, human demography and complex topographic gradients of northwestern Argentina has resulted in processes of both forest recovery and deforestation, thus providing the opportunity to analyze patterns and driving forces of land-cover redistribution. We analyzed 20 years (1986–2006) of land-cover change in a subtropical watershed in relation to topographic and demographic variables. Although net forest change represented <1 %, forests redistribution affected 7 % of forest lands. There was a consistent geographic segregation of deforestation and forest recovery, with forests expanding over steep highlands and agriculture expanding over lowland irrigated areas. Population trends were not associated to forest expansion in lowlands but they explained 32 % of forest recovery in highlands. Highland forest expansion and lowland deforestation, respectively, imply conservation opportunities for humid montane forests and the environmental services they provide (e.g., watershed conservation) and threats for the conservation of dry forests and its biodiversity. Our study exemplifies the importance of land-use redistribution (rather than net change) with relevant environmental consequences at regional scale.     

Integrated hydrologic–economic decision support system for groundwater use confronting climate change uncertainties in the Tunuyán River basin,Argentina

This study presents an integrated hydrologic–economic model as decision support system for groundwater use and incorporates uncertainties of climate change. The model was developed with the Vensim software (Ventana Systems) for system dynamic simulations. The software permitted the integration of economic variables along with hydrologic variables, in a unified format with the aim of evaluating the economic impacts of climate change on arid environments. To test the model, we applied it in one of the upper Tunuyán River sub-basin, located in the Mendoza Province (Argentina), where irrigation comes from groundwater. The model defines the best mix of crops and the total land use required to maximize the total river sub-basin monetary income, considering as a limit the amount of water that does not exceed the natural annual aquifer recharge. To estimate the impacts of climatic changes, four scenarios were compared: the business as usual (with the number of existing wells) in a dry year with a temperature increase of 4 °C; the business as usual in a wet year with an increase in temperature of 1.1 °C; an efficient use of wells in a dry year and a temperature increase of 4 °C and an efficient use of wells in a wet year with a temperature increase of 1.1 °C. Outputs calculated by the model were: land use per crop, total sub-basin net benefit, total sub-basin water extraction, water extraction limit depending on river discharge and total number of wells required to irrigate the entire area. Preliminary results showed that the number of existing wells exceeded the optimized number of wells required to sustainably irrigate the entire river sub-basin. Results indicated that in an average river discharge year, if wells were efficiently used, further rural development would be possible, until the limit of 350 million m³ of water extraction per year was reached (650 million m³ for a wet year and 180 million m³ for a dry year). The unified format and the low cost of the software license make the model a useful tool for Water Resources Management Institutions, particularly in developing countries.     

Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural land use suitability of the Hungarian counties

Central and Eastern European countries are a hotspot area when analyzing the impacts of climate change on agricultural and environmental sectors. This paper conducts a socio-economic evaluation of climate risks on crop production in Hungary, using panel data models. The region has a special location in the Carpathian basin, where the spatial distribution of precipitation varies highly from humid conditions in the western part to semiarid conditions in eastern Hungary. Under current conditions, crop systems are mainly rainfed, and water licences are massively underexploited. However, water stress projected by climate change scenarios could completely change this situation. In the near future (2021–2050), most of the crops examined could have better climatic conditions, while at the end of the century (2071–2100), lower yields are expected. Adaptation strategies must be based on an integrated evaluation which links economic and climatic aspects, and since the results show important differences in the case of individual systems, it is clear that the response has to be crop and region specific.     

Building resilience to water scarcity in southern Spain: a case study of rice farming in Doñana protected wetlands

Agricultural water management needs to evolve in view of increased water scarcity, especially when farming and natural protected areas are closely linked. In the study site of Doñana (southern Spain), water is shared by rice producers and a world heritage biodiversity ecosystem. Our aim is to contribute to defining adaptation strategies that may build resilience to increasing water scarcity and minimize water conflicts among agricultural and natural systems. The analytical framework links a participatory process with quantitative methods to prioritize the adaptation options. Bottom-up proposed adaptation measures are evaluated by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes both socioeconomic criteria and criteria of the ecosystem services affected by the adaptation options. Criteria weights are estimated by three different methods—analytic hierarchy process, Likert scale and equal weights—that are then compared. Finally, scores from an MCA are input into an optimization model used to determine the optimal land-use distribution in order to maximize utility and land-use diversification according to different scenarios of funds and water availability. While our results show a spectrum of perceptions of priorities among stakeholders, there is one overriding theme that is to define a way to restore part of the rice fields to natural wetlands. These results hold true under the current climate scenario and even more so under an increased water scarcity scenario.     

Diminution of migration of phthalic acid esters in tequila beverage by the year of production

Abstract

The presence of diethyl-phthalate (DEP), dibutyl-phthalate (DBP), butylbenzyl-phthalate (BBP), diethylhexyl-phthalate (DEHP) and diisononyl-phthalate (DINP) was determined in 295 tequila samples. They were grouped by age of maturation (white, aged, extra aged or ultra aged) and year of production (between 2013 and 2018). Gas Chromatography coupled with Mass Spectrometry was used for identification and quantification. The results showed that 65 samples (22% of the total) were phthalate free. DEP (0.13-0.27?mg/kg), BBP (0.05–2.91?mg/kg) and DINP (1.64–3.43?mg/kg) were detected in 11 (3.73%), 37 (12.54%) and 5 (1.69%) samples, respectively. But, these concentrations did not exceed the maximum permitted limits (MPL) of phthalates for alcoholic beverages. DBP (0.01–2.20?mg/kg) and DEHP (0.03–4.64?mg/kg) were detected in 96 (32.54%) and 224 (75.93%) samples, from them only 10 (3.39%) and 15 (5.08%) samples, respectively, exceeded the MPL for alcoholic beverages and they were few tequilas produced in the year 2014 or before. DEHP was the most frequent phthalate found in tequila and observed DEHP concentrations were 2-times higher in ultra aged tequilas compared to those in white tequilas. We concluded that all tequilas produced in 2015 and after, satisfied the international standards for these compounds.     

Phosphorus and sulfur in a tropical soil and their effects on growth and selenium accumulation in Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.) de Wit

Selenium (Se) is an essential metalloid element for mammals. Nonetheless, both deficiency and excess of Se in the environment are associated with several diseases in animals and humans. Here, we investigated the interaction of Se, supplied as selenate (Se⁺⁶) and selenite (Se⁺⁴), with phosphorus (P) and sulfur (S) in a weathered tropical soil and their effects on growth and Se accumulation in Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.) de Wit. The P-Se interaction effects on L. leucocephala growth differed between the Se forms (selenate and selenite) supplied in the soil. Selenate was prejudicial to plants grown in the soil with low P dose, while selenite was harmful to plants grown in soil with high P dose. The decreasing soil S dose increased the toxic effect of Se in L. leucocephala plants. Se tissue concentration and total Se accumulation in L. leucocephala shoot were higher with selenate supply in the soil when compared with selenite. Therefore, selenite proved to be less phytoavailable in the weathered tropical soil and, at the same time, more toxic to L. leucocephala plants than selenate. Thus, it is expected that L. leucocephala plants are more efficient to phytoextract and accumulate Se as selenate than Se as selenite from weathered tropical soils, for either strategy of phytoremediation (decontamination of Se-polluted soils) or purposes of biofortification for animal feed (fertilization of Se-poor soils).