Environment-specific elasticity and sensitivity analysis of the stochastic growth rate

For matrix population models, analyses of how sensitive the population growth rate is to changes in vital rates (i.e. perturbations) are important for studies of life history evolution as well as for management and conservation of threatened species. There are two types of sensitivity analyses corresponding to absolute (sensitivity) or relative (elasticity) changes in the vital rates and both types can be applied to both deterministic and stochastic matrix population models. To date, most empirical studies of elasticity and sensitivity of the stochastic growth rate have examined the response to perturbations in the vital rates in a complete set of possible environments. However, it is often of interest to examine the response to perturbations occurring in only a subset of the possible environments. This has been done for periodic time-varying models elsewhere, but here we describe a recently published method for calculating the environment-specific sensitivity and elasticity of the stochastic growth rate and apply this method to data. These environment-specific perturbation analyses provide a logical way of dividing the sensitivity and elasticity among the environments. They give important insight into the selection regime in different environments and can provide valuable information for making management decisions and management evaluations in stochastic environments.     

LCA of comprehensive pig manure management incorporating integrated technology systems

Increased and intensified pig production has raised the needs for proper management systems of pig manure in order to reduce negative environmental impacts. The objectives of this study were to identify the most significant environmental impacts from pig manure management considering a wide range of impact categories and to determine which integrated technology system at which handling stage can achieve the highest impact reduction. Twelve scenarios applying various treatment, storage and land application systems were developed and compared. Life cycle assessment (LCA) with the aim of capturing the actual consequences of the considered scenarios was selected as the tool for impact quantification. The most important impact categories in this investigation are global warming (GWP), aquatic eutrophication (AEP), respiratory inorganics (RIP), and terrestrial eutrophication (TEP). The two latter impacts, caused by ammonia emissions, have not been widely considered in most of previous LCA studies on pig manure management. The main keys for the effective impact reduction are the integration of treatment technology systems aiming at energy recovery with high nutrient recovery and control of greenhouse gas, ammonia, and nitrate emissions at every handling stage. For GWP and AEP, the anaerobic digestion-based scenario with natural crust storage achieves the highest impact reduction because of high efficiencies in energy and nutrient recovery with restricted emissions of GHG and nitrate. For RIP and TEP, the incineration and thermal gasification based scenarios and the scenario without a treatment system applying the deep injection method yield the highest impact minimisation due to the lowest ammonia emissions. This study further indicates the need to consider all significant impacts to decide the best management options taking into consideration local conditions.     

Sustainability through system transformation: lessons from Finnish efforts

This special issue of the Journal of Cleaner Production addresses system transformation by examining progress, stumbling blocks and opportunities for sustainable consumption and production in a specific country, Finland, set within a global context. The articles present and analyse top-down policy efforts, bottom-up efforts by municipalities, activities by companies and actions by consumers. They provide material for discussions on the shift from sustainability planning to enhancing system transformation, on the implications of globalisation for system boundaries, on the transformation of complex systems, on learning processes and on methods of assessing transitions. Without providing a singular solution, the articles show that issues of sustainability should be explored in different ways within different contexts, and experimented with. There is a continuous need for transformations and reflexive learning, since conditions are likely to become very different, not least due to climate change. The notion of change and transformation will be high on the agenda of the Rio+20 conference, as will similar efforts to promote large-scale transformations of consumption and production.     

Influence of air flow rate on emission of DEHP from vinyl flooring in the emission cell FLEC: Measurements and CFD simulation

The emission of di-(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) from one type of vinyl flooring with ～15% (w/w) DEHP as plasticizer was measured at 22 °C in five FLECs + one blank FLEC (Field and Laboratory Emission Cell). Initially, the flow through all FLECs was 450 ml min^?1. After 689 days the flows were changed to 1000 ml min^?1, 1600 ml min^?1, 2300 ml min^?1, and 3000 ml min^?1, respectively, in four FLECs, and kept at 450 ml min^?1 in one FLEC. Air samples were collected from the effluent air at regular intervals. After 1190 days the experiments were terminated and the interior surfaces of all six FLECs were rinsed with methanol to estimate the internal surface concentrations of DEHP. The DEHP air concentration and specific emission rate (SER) at steady state was estimated for the five different flow rates. The steady-state concentrations decreased slightly with increasing air flow with only the two highest flow rates resulting in significantly lower concentrations. In contrast, the SERs increased significantly. Despite large variation, the internal surface concentrations appeared to decrease slightly with increasing FLEC flow. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations suggest that the interior gas and surface concentrations were roughly uniform for the low flow case (450 ml min^?1), under which, the partitioning between the FLEC internal surface and chamber air was examined. Although paired t-tests showed no difference between CFD and experimental results for DEHP air concentrations and SERs at steady-state conditions, CFD indicated that the experimental DEHP surface concentrations in the FLECs were underestimated. In conclusion, the experiments showed that the emission of DEHP from vinyl flooring is subject to “external” control and that the SER is strongly and positively dependent on the air exchange rate. However, the increased SER almost compensates for the decrease in gas-phase concentration caused by the increased air exchange.     

Aluminium: The Need for a Re-Evaluation of Its Toxicity and Solubility in Mature Forest Stands

Aluminium (Al) is a key element in critical loadcalculations for forest. Here, we argue for re-evaluating theimportance of Al. Effects of two levels of enhanced Alconcentrations and lowered Ca:Al ratios in the soil solutionin a field manipulation experiment in a mature spruce stand(1996–1999) on tree vitality parameters were tested. Inaddition, Al solubility controls were tested. Various loads ofAl were added to forest plots by means of an irrigationsystem. Potentially toxic Al concentrations and criticalratios of Ca to inorganic Al were established. The ratio of Cato total Al was not a suitable indicator for unfavourableconditions for plant growth. No significant effects on crowncondition, tree growth and fine root production were observedafter three years of treatment. In 1999, foliar Mg content inthe highest Al addition treatment had declined significantly.This agreed with the known response to Al stress of seedlingsin nutrient solution experiments. No support was found forusing the chemical criterion Ca:Al ratio in soil solution,foliar and root tissue as an indicator for forest damage dueto acidification. Al solubility was considerably lower thanimplied by the assumption of equilibrium with gibbsite,particularly in the root zone. The gibbsite equilibrium iscommonly used in critical load models. Substitution of thegibbsite equilibrium with an Al-organic matter complexationmodel to describe Al solubility in soil water may have largeconsequences for calculation of critical loads. The resultsindicate that critical load maps for forests should bereconsidered.     

A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP₁₀₀), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO₂-eq. tonne^?1 to net saving of 670 kg CO₂-eq. tonne^?1 of MSWM.     

New tools in local energy planning: experimenting with scenarios,public participation and environmental assessment

This article presents a model for local energy planning and its application in a full-scale experiment in a Swedish municipality. The model is based on legal requirement, research findings and standards of good practice and includes a combination of analytical and procedural tools intended to support rational decision-making: external scenarios, a citizens’ panel, life cycle analysis and qualitative environmental assessment (EA). The application of the model indicates that the decision-support tools selected can give several new and valuable inputs to local energy planning, such as local knowledge and values through citizen dialogue and comprehensive EAs. However, the experiment also shows that there are several challenges involved in applying the tools, for example, it is difficult to get citizens and the industry to participate and that it is complicated to combine several different tools for decision-making into a single planning process. Moreover, the experiences from the application suggest that the model for local energy planning show great potential but needs to be improved before it can be used as a standard of good practice.     

The influence of age on the morbidity and mortality of pedestrian victims

OBJECTIVES: The present study examined the influence of age on the morbidity and mortality of pedestrian victims while controlling for confounding factors. METHODS: The Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS) database was used for a cross-sectional study to compare the outcome of senior (age >or=60 years) and adult (age 19 to 50 years) pedestrian victims. The outcome measures were the Injury Severity Score (ISS), Maximum Abbreviated Injury Score (MAIS), Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS), and Mortality. Logistic regression models were used to estimate age-associated risks while controlling for confounders such as vehicle type, impact speed, and pedestrian height, weight, and gender. RESULTS: Compared to the adult victims, the seniors had a higher average ISS (23 vs. 16, p = 0.018) and higher mortality (30 percent vs. 11 percent, p or=9 (odds ratio = 2.72; 95 percent CI: 1.31-5.68) and to die (odds ratio = 6.68; 95 percent CI: 2.37-19.88). The seniors were approximately twice as likely to have higher AIS scores to almost every body region. CONCLUSIONS: The adjusted age-dependent risks indicated by the current study should be considered when calculating or projecting pedestrian morbidity and mortality. Adjustment in statistical models is essential to achieve precise risk estimates and in turn to appropriately allocate public health rescores.     

Density-dependent migratory waves in the marine pelagic ecosystem

The migration of large aggregations of animals that sweep through the landscape is a phenomenon with large consequences in many ecosystems. It has been suggested that such migrations are mediated by resource depletion. Under this hypothesis it has been shown that simple foraging rules may generate density-dependent migratory waves (DDMW) in which the speed and amplitude increase with animal abundance. We tested these predictions on a 32-year data set of the spatial distribution of the two youngest age groups of a small pelagic schooling fish, the capelin (Mallotus villosus), by the end of their annual feeding migration in the Barents Sea. Our data suggest that the two age groups divided the Barents Sea by forming migratory waves that moved in opposite directions. The aggregation and spatial displacement of these waves increased with increasing age-specific abundance. However, possibly through social interactions, migratory pattern was modified by the abundance of the other age group.     

Nasreya: a treatment and disposal facility for industrial hazardous waste in Alexandria, Egypt: phase I.

A facility for the treatment and disposal of industrial hazardous waste has been established in Alexandria, Egypt. Phase I of the facility encompassing a secure landfill and solar evaporation ponds is ready to receive waste, and Phase II encompassing physico-chemical treatment, solidification, and interim storage is underway. The facility, the Nasreya Centre, is the first of its kind in Egypt, and represents the nucleus for the integration, improvement and further expansion of different hazardous waste management practices and services in Alexandria. It has been developed within the overall legal framework of the Egyptian Law for the Environment, and is expected to improve prospects for enforcement of the regulatory requirements specified in this law. It has been developed with the overall aim of promoting the establishment of an integrated industrial hazardous waste management system in Alexandria, serving as a demonstration to be replicated elsewhere in Egypt. For Phase I, the Centre only accepts inorganic industrial wastes. In this respect, a waste acceptance policy has been developed, which is expected to be reviewed during Phase II, with an expansion of the waste types accepted.