Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, who recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors, and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI:--46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%;--3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.     

Decoupling of component and ensemble density feedbacks in birds and mammals

A component density feedback represents the effect of change in population size on single demographic rates, whereas an ensemble density feedback captures that effect on the overall growth rate of a population. Given that a population's growth rate is a synthesis of the interplay of all demographic rates operating in a population, we test the hypothesis that the strength of ensemble density feedback must augment with increasing strength of component density feedback, using long-term censuses of population size, fertility, and survival rates of 109 bird and mammal populations (97 species). We found that compensatory and depensatory component feedbacks were common (each detected in approximately 50% of the demographic rates). However, component feedback strength only explained <10% of the variation in ensemble feedback strength. To explain why, we illustrate the different sources of decoupling between component and ensemble feedbacks. We argue that the management of anthropogenic impacts on populations using component feedbacks alone is ill-advised, just as managing on the basis of ensemble feedbacks without a mechanistic understanding of the contributions made by its components and environmental variability can lead to suboptimal decisions.     

Underlying causes of habitat-associated differences in size of age-0 walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the Gulf of Alaska

Age-0 walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) caught in September in the Gulf of Alaska display habitat-associated differences in standard length (SL). Age-0 fish collected in the region around Sutwik Island and 375?km farther downstream near the Shumagin Islands most likely originate from the Shelikof Strait spawning aggregation. However, age-0 fish resulting from the same spawning aggregation differ in mean size up to 20?mm between areas by September. We examined the otoliths of the larval and age-0 stages of walleye pollock from these two areas in 2000 and 2001 to determine whether growth rate, hatch date, and/or temperature influenced fish size. Circulation models were used to determine whether transport of larvae from an upstream spawning group into the study areas could have occurred. Mean in situ temperature during sampling periods was not defined as a significant factor in altering growth rates. Overlapping hatch date distributions of the larval and age-0 fish in the Shumagin Island area confirmed that the fish were from the Shelikof Strait spawning group. Comparison of hatch date distributions in the upstream Sutwik Island area revealed larger/older larvae from an upstream spawning group mixed with larvae from the Shelikof Strait spawning group. Our results suggest that the offset of 20?mm SL between the groups of age-0 pollock was the result of a combination of enhanced survivorship of early-hatched larvae in the Sutwik area and the introduction and retention of the progeny of another spawning group originating upstream of Shelikof Strait.     

Energy budgets reveal equal benefits of varied migration strategies in northern gannets

We investigated migration and wintering of adult northern gannets (Morus bassanus) breeding in east Scotland, North Sea, by deploying geolocation loggers over three winters. The wintering ranges of these birds varied from the North Sea to the Atlantic off West Africa. Flight time was taken as a proxy for migration and foraging effort. Gannets wintering off Africa had higher total flight times during migration than birds wintering further north. Total flight times in different wintering regions were generally low. Birds off West Africa consistently spent < 25 % of daylight hours in flight, but birds further north showed more variable values that may reflect more variable weather or food availability. Winter sea surface temperatures ranged from 9 °C (North Sea) to 16 °C (West Africa). Thermostatic costs in winter as estimated by measuring thermal conductance in carcasses in still air and water were 28 % higher in North Sea than off West Africa. This effect is aggravated by higher thermostatic costs caused by stronger wind chills in the North Sea compared to the conditions off West Africa. Birds wintering close to the UK arrived at the colony on average 12 days earlier than birds wintering off West Africa. We conclude that the net cost-benefit analysis may be similar for all wintering areas investigated.     

Protected areas as frontiers for human migration

Causes of human population growth near protected areas have been much debated. We conducted 821 interviews in 16 villages around Budongo Forest Reserve, Masindi district, Uganda, to explore the causes of human migration to protected areas and to identify differences in forest use between migrant and nonmigrant communities. We asked subjects for information about birthplace, migration, household assets, household activities, and forest use. Interview subjects were categorized as nonmigrants (born in one of the interview villages), socioeconomic migrants (chose to emigrate for economic or social reasons) from within Masindi district (i.e., local migrants) and from outside the Masindi district (i.e., regional migrants), or forced migrants (i.e., refugees or internally displaced individuals who emigrated as a result of conflict, human rights abuses, or natural disaster). Only 198 respondents were born in interview villages, indicating high rates of migration between 1998 and 2008. Migrants were drawn to Budongo Forest because they thought land was available (268 individuals) or had family in the area (161 individuals). A greater number of regional migrants settled in villages near Lake Albert than did forced and local migrants. Migration category was also associated with differences in sources of livelihood. Of forced migrants 40.5% earned wages through labor, whereas 25.5% of local and 14.5% of regional migrants engaged in wage labor. Migrant groups appeared to have different effects on the environment. Of respondents that hunted, 72.7% were regional migrants. Principal component analyses indicated households of regional migrants were more likely to be associated with deforestation. Our results revealed gaps in current models of human population growth around protected areas. By highlighting the importance of social networks and livelihood choices, our results contribute to a more nuanced understanding of causes of migration and of the environmental effects of different migrant groups.     

Acoustically detected year-round presence of right whales in an urbanized migration corridor

Species' conservation relies on understanding their seasonal habitats and migration routes. North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis), listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, migrate from the southeastern U.S. coast to Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts, a federally designated critical habitat, from February through May to feed. The whales then continue north across the Gulf of Maine to northern waters (e.g., Bay of Fundy). To enter Cape Cod Bay, right whales must traverse an area of dense shipping and fishing activity in Massachusetts Bay, where there are no mandatory regulations for the protection of right whales or management of their habitat. We used passive acoustic recordings of right whales collected in Massachusetts Bay from May 2007 through October 2010 to determine the annual spatial and temporal distribution of the whales and their calling activity. We detected right whales in the bay throughout the year, in contrast to results from visual surveys. Right whales were detected on at least 24% of days in each month, with the exception of June 2007, in which there were no detections. Averaged over all years, right whale calls were most abundant from February through May. During this period, calls were most frequent between 17:00 and 20:00 local time; no diel pattern was apparent in other months. The spatial distribution of the approximate locations of calling whales suggests they may use Massachusetts Bay as a conduit to Cape Cod Bay in the spring and as they move between the Gulf of Maine and waters to the south in September through December. Although it is unclear how dependent right whales are on the bay, the discovery of their widespread presence in Massachusetts Bay throughout the year suggests this region may need to be managed to reduce the probability of collisions with ships and entanglement in fishing gear.     

Use of local tidal records to identify relative sea level change: accuracy and error for decision makers

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers eustatic sea level rise to be a major impact driven by climate change. Relative sea level change, whether positive or negative, will affect industries, communities and ecology along the world??s coastlines and estuaries. Estimates of global eustatic sea level rise between 1961 and 2003 are 1.8?±?0.5?mm a^?1, reflecting results from validated global tide gauge records. Over the last two decades, several studies have used automatic tide gauge records with at least 80?years of data to generate global prediction models. The IPCC recognises that global change is not uniform, therefore local policy for flood management and coastal protection should rely on local change models that incorporate glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) and apply accurate data correction techniques. Some of the longest tidal records are held within the Northern Hemisphere, e.g. Cascais, Amsterdam, Aberdeen, Sheerness and Newlyn. The UK provides several important case studies highlighting changes in relative sea level between the north and the south, primarily due to variations in GIA rates of land uplift and subsidence. Tide gauge records are held by a variety of governmental, non-governmental and private organisations. However, each source may typically compile data in different ways, relying on diverse equipment and recording techniques, often with variations in frequency, length, quality and corrections applied. Even within a single organisation there may be differences in dataset quality. This paper examines some of the key sources of error when working with historical tidal datasets in local geographic areas and aims to identify the limitations of locally derived data thereby assisting in the determination of relative sea level trends that are of widespread value to infrastructure and policy makers.     

Distributional patterns of adult male loggerhead sea turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Caretta caretta</Emphasis>) in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral,Florida, USA during and after a major annual breeding aggregation

Satellite transmitters were attached to 25 reproductively active and four inactive adult male loggerhead sea turtles (86.6–107.0 cm SCLmin) captured from the Port Canaveral, FL, USA shipping channel to assess horizontal and vertical distributions. During the breeding period, male loggerheads aggregated (44% of 755 turtle days) in a 117.6 km² core area that encompassed the shipping channel. Median dive duration during the breeding period was 27 min (IQR = 15–42 min) and males spent 4% (IQR = 3–5%) of the time at the surface, with significantly shorter dives associated with reproductively active males. Migrant and resident males dispersed concurrently, with residents shifting > 30 km east across the continental shelf over a more protracted departure schedule than migrants. Dive duration and time spent at the surface increased through the fall. Cluster analysis revealed the strongest association for dive duration with sea state during and after the breeding period, with significantly longer dives during more turbulent conditions. In contrast, univariate associations with surface interval duration were not elucidated.     

Seasonal distribution patterns of juvenile loggerhead sea turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Caretta caretta</Emphasis>) following capture from a shipping channel in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

Thirty-four juvenile loggerhead sea turtles captured by trawling from the Charleston, South Carolina (USA), shipping channel (32°42′N; −79°47′W) between May 2004 and August 2007 were tagged with satellite transmitters to assess the extent to which they remained near the capture location given their collection along a seasonal migratory corridor. Seventy-five percent of juveniles were classified as seasonal residents. Migrants predominantly swam north in the spring and nomads wandered south in the summer, but predictive indicators for non-resident status were not identified. All but one juvenile generally remained south of 34°N, within 40 km of shore, and in waters <30 m deep throughout the year. Nine of 14 loggerhead sea turtles monitored during the winter remained exclusively over the continental shelf, three briefly occurred in oceanic habitats, and two foraged extensively in oceanic habitats. Residents distributed >15 km from shore between spring and autumn were three times as likely to occur in oceanic habitats in winter. Modest seasonal movements contrasted with adults tagged at similar latitudes and with juveniles tagged further north and suggest distinct foraging groups within a regional foraging ground.     

Mobilization of arsenic and other trace elements of health concern in groundwater from the Salí River Basin, Tucumán Province, Argentina

The Salí River Basin in north-west Argentina (7,000 km²) is composed of a sequence of Tertiary and Quaternary loess deposits, which have been substantially reworked by fluvial and aeolian processes. As with other areas of the Chaco-Pampean Plain, groundwater in the basin suffers a range of chemical quality problems, including arsenic (concentrations in the range of 12.2–1,660 μg L⁻¹), fluoride (50–8,740 μg L⁻¹), boron (34.0–9,550 μg L⁻¹), vanadium (30.7–300 μg L⁻¹) and uranium (0.03–125 μg L⁻¹). Shallow groundwater (depths up to 15 m) has particularly high concentrations of these elements. Exceedances above WHO (2011) guideline values are 100% for As, 35% for B, 21% for U and 17% for F. Concentrations in deep (>200 m) and artesian groundwater in the basin are also often high, though less extreme than at shallow depths. The waters are oxidizing, with often high bicarbonate concentrations (50.0–1,260 mg L⁻¹) and pH (6.28–9.24). The ultimate sources of these trace elements are the volcanic components of the loess deposits, although sorption reactions involving secondary Al and Fe oxides also regulate the distribution and mobility of trace elements in the aquifers. In addition, concentrations of chromium lie in range of 79.4–232 μg L⁻¹ in shallow groundwater, 129–250 μg L⁻¹ in deep groundwater and 110–218 μg L⁻¹ in artesian groundwater. All exceed the WHO guideline value of 50 μg L⁻¹. Their origin is likely to be predominantly geogenic, present as chromate in the ambient oxic and alkaline aquifer conditions.