Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Cattle vaccination records question the impact of recent zero-deforestation agreements in the Amazon

Regional Environmental Change - In the late 2000s, slaughterhouses across the Amazon entered into a series of agreements designed to reduce the environmental impact of the local cattle sector. In...     

Designing the next generation of climate adaptation research for development

Adaptation research has changed significantly in recent years as funders and researchers seek to encourage greater impact, ensure value for money and promote interdisciplinarity across the natural and social sciences. While these developments are inherently positive, they also bring fresh challenges. With this in mind, this paper presents an agenda for the next generation of climate adaptation research for development. The agenda is based on insights from a dialogue session held at the 2016 Adaptation Futures conference as well as drawing on the collective experience of the authors. We propose five key areas that need to be changed in order to meet the needs of future adaptation research, namely: increasing transparency and consultation in research design; encouraging innovation in the design and delivery of adaptation research programmes; demonstrating impact on the ground; addressing incentive structures; and promoting more effective brokering, knowledge management and learning. As new international funding initiatives start to take shape, we underscore the importance of learning from past experiences and scaling-up of successful innovations in research funding models.

     

Socio-environmental consideration of phosphorus flows in the urban sanitation chain of contrasting cities

Understanding how cities can transform organic waste into a valuable resource is critical to urban sustainability. The capture and recycling of phosphorus (P), and other essential nutrients, from human excreta is particularly important as an alternative organic fertilizer source for agriculture. However, the complex set of socio-environmental factors influencing urban human excreta management is not yet sufficiently integrated into sustainable P research. Here, we synthesize information about the pathways P can take through urban sanitation systems along with barriers and facilitators to P recycling across cities. We examine five case study cities by using a sanitation chains approach: Accra, Ghana; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Beijing, China; Baltimore, USA; and London, England. Our cross-city comparison shows that London and Baltimore recycle a larger percentage of P from human excreta back to agricultural lands than other cities, and that there is a large diversity in socio-environmental factors that affect the patterns of recycling observed across cities. Our research highlights conditions that may be “necessary but not sufficient” for P recycling, including access to capital resources. Path dependencies of large sanitation infrastructure investments in the Global North contrast with rapidly urbanizing cities in the Global South, which present opportunities for alternative sanitation development pathways. Understanding such city-specific social and environmental barriers to P recycling options could help address multiple interacting societal objectives related to sanitation and provide options for satisfying global agricultural nutrient demand.

     

From mixed farming to intensive agriculture: energy profiles of agriculture in Quebec,Canada, 1871–2011

Regional Environmental Change - This article presents an energy analysis of Quebec agroecoystems at five periods of time: 1871, 1931, 1951, 1981, and 2011, calculating for each year the various...     

Life cycle assessment tool of electricity generation in Portugal

This paper investigates multi-stakeholder arrangements initiated by businesses and NGOs from the North that aim to enhance a more sustainable agricultural production at specific localities in Southern countries. We aim to better understand the search for concerted action in multi-actor arrangements. Therefore, this paper presents a diagnostic framework with three strategic challenges the partnership projects are facing: linking global economic objectives to local needs, values and interests; bridging public and private interests and responsibilities; and seeking trade-offs between social, environmental and economic values. Starting from the partnerships’ Theory of Change, this diagnostic framework is applied to comparative case studies of partnership projects in the cocoa sector in Indonesia, which are part of a Northern-based public–private partnership to improve farmers’ prospective. It is concluded that the economic reality faced by the farmers differs from that of the Northern actors; collaboration with governments is difficult because of different organizational cultures; and the partnership projects underestimate the strength of vested social relations the smallholders are part of. Overall, the initiators of the partnerships seem to work with a too restricted economic interpretation of the local reality.     

Behavioral intentions toward genetically modified crops in Southwest Iran: a multi-stakeholder analysis

This study examined the influencing factors of the self-reported behavioral intentions toward genetically modified (GM) crops using a multi-stakeholder approach in the Khuzestan Province in Southwest Iran. The study focused on three different groups, including: “agricultural students,” “agricultural private firms’ managers” and “rich-resource farmers.” Data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire and was analyzed by SPSS (V20) and AMOS (V20). Results indicated that the respondents perceive more benefits than risks for GM crops and that the perception of benefits and risks, respectively, had positive and negative impacts on the self-reported behavioral intention of the respondents. The knowledge of the respondents regarding these crops had positive impacts on perception of benefits. The results showed that both managers and students worried about the food safety and impact of GM crops on human health while farmers worried about the environmental risks of GM crops. The results also revealed that those who are the most conscious about GM crops are more trusted. The findings also showed that the majority of the respondents hold a positive view of the potential of GM crops.     

Delineation of potential ground water-bearing zones in the Barind tract of West Bengal,India

The Barind tract of West Bengal is an area of tropical sub-humid region composed of old alluvial soil. The area has high water demand due to growing population pressure and intensification in agricultural activity. These create huge stress on surface and ground water availability. Continuous withdrawal of ground water has become an alternative source of irrigation water which has also again made the condition critical. Ground water level has been lowered down drastically in many parts in this region. Under this circumstance, it is necessary to delineate potential ground water-bearing layers. Therefore, the present study attempts to identify potential ground water-bearing zones to manage ground water effectively. Instead of usually used parameters for ground water potentiality delineation here only some particular litholog parameters like breadth of water-bearing layer, depth of water-bearing layer, presence of clay layer above or below major water-bearing layer have been considered for delimiting the same. The result shows that out of total area, 60% area (405,382.2 ha) falls under very low to low potential ground water-bearing zone and only 8.19% area (55,634.97 ha) is potential. Considering this spatial pattern of ground water availability, harvesting structure and magnitude of water withdrawing should be designed.     

Modeling of agricultural drought risk pattern using Markov chain and GIS in the western part of Bangladesh

The aim of the study is to assess the agricultural drought risk condition in the context of global climate change in the western part of Bangladesh that covers about 45% area of the country for the period of 1960–2011. Drought Index (DI) and Drought Hazard Index (DHI) have been calculated by Markov Chain analysis and that of Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) from socioeconomic and physical indicators. The DI values show that the northern part in general is more drought-prone, having less crops prospect, whereas the southern part is less drought-prone with high crop potentiality. The probability of extreme drought occurrence increases in recent decades in some parts as a result the drought events become more frequent in the areas. The DHI ranges from 15 to 32, and northern part suffers from more extreme drought hazards than that of southern part. DVI also indicates that northern part is exposed to high to very high drought vulnerability as higher percentage of illiterate people are involved in agricultural practices and high percentage of irrigation to cultivable land, but southern part exposed to moderate to low vulnerability because of low values of vulnerability indicators. Finally, agricultural drought exists at high risk condition in northern part and low in southern parts and 21.63, 26.54 and 29.68% of the area poses very high, high and moderate risk, respectively. So, immediate adaptation measures are needed keeping in mind climate features like rainfall and temperature variability, drought risk and risk ranking to make viable adaptation measures.     

Assessment of hydrothermally modified fly ash for the treatment of methylene blue dye in the textile industry wastewater

Dyes and pigments are one of the major water pollutants and if not discharged properly cause ecological disturbance. Considering this, the current study investigates the application of thermal power plant by-product, i.e., fly ash for the elimination of a hazardous methylene blue dye from its synthetic aqueous solution. Experiments were conducted in batch mode to study the effect of pH, temperature, adsorbent dose and contact time. Highest dye removal (94.3%) was achieved at pH 10 using adsorbent dose of 10 g/L in 90 min of contact time at 40 °C. However, for cost-effective operation at neutral pH and room temperature (30 °C), it yields 89.3% dye removal having similar dose and contact time. Equilibrium isotherms for adsorption were analyzed by Langmuir and Freundlich, Temkin and Dubinin–Radushkevich isotherm equations. The results revealed that the best fit model of adsorption closely followed Langmuir adsorption. Based on adsorption isotherm models, thermodynamics parameters ΔG, ΔH and ΔS were calculated. The negative value of ΔG and ΔH revealed that adsorption process was exothermic, spontaneous and physical. The present work suggests that through simple process hydrothermally modified fly ash has the potential to be used as cost-effective and efficient adsorbent for the treatment of wastewater from textile industries.