IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

Characterisation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in flue gas and residues of a full scale fluidized bed combustor combusting non-hazardous industrial waste

This paper studies the fate of PAHs in full scale incinerators by analysing the concentration of the 16 EPA-PAHs in both the input waste and all the outputs of a full scale Fluidized Bed Combustor (FBC). Of the analysed waste inputs i.e. Waste Water Treatment (WWT) sludge, Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF) and Automotive Shredder Residue (ASR), RDF and ASR were the main PAH sources, with phenanthrene, fluoranthene and pyrene being the most important PAHs. In the flue gas sampled at the stack, naphthalene was the only predominant PAH, indicating that the PAHs in FBC’s combustion gas were newly formed and did not remain from the input waste. Of the other outputs, the boiler and fly ash contained no detectable levels of PAHs, whereas the flue gas cleaning residue contained only low concentrations of naphthalene, probably adsorbed from the flue gas. The PAH fingerprint of the bottom ash corresponded rather well to the PAH fingerprint of the RDF and ASR, indicating that the PAHs in this output, in contrast to the other outputs, were mainly remainders from the PAHs in the waste inputs. A PAH mass balance showed that the total PAH input/output ratio of the FBC ranged from about 100 to about 2600 depending on the waste input composition and the obtained combustion conditions. In all cases, the FBC was clearly a net PAH sink.     

Book reviews

Making Cities Work: the role of local government in the urban environment. Richard Gilbert, Don Stevenson, Herbert Girardet & Richard Stren, 1996, London, Earthscan, 203pp. ISBN 1 85383 354 1, £13.95 pbk

Environmental Policy in an International Context, Vols 1-3: Perspectives, Conflicts and Prospects. P. Glasbergen & A. Blowers (Series Eds) London, Arnold

Rhetoric and Reality in Environmental Policy. M. Wintle & R. Reeve (Eds), 1994, Aldershot, Avebury Studies in Green Research, 154 pp. ISBN 1 85628 927 3

FutureNatural: Nature, Science, Culture. G. Roberston et al. (Eds) 1996, London, Routledge, ISBN 0415 070139, £40.00 hbk

Environmental Policy with Political Integration: the European Union and the United States. New horizons in environmental economics. John B. Braden, Henk Folmer & Thomas S. Ulen (Eds), 1996, Cheltenham, Elgar Publishing, 477 pp. ISBN 1 85898 217 0     

MINIMIZING THE IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ON LONG TERM RUNOFF1

Increasing concern about the problems caused by urban sprawl has encouraged development and implementation of smart growth approaches to land use management. One of the goals of smart growth is water resources protection, in particular minimizing the runoff impact of urbanization. To investigate the magnitude of the potential benefits of land use planning for water resources protection, possible runoff impacts of historical and projected urbanization were estimated for two watersheds in Indiana and Michigan using a long term hydrological impact analysis model. An optimization component allowed selection of land use change placements that minimize runoff increase. Optimizing land use change placement would have reduced runoff increase by as much as 4.9 percent from 1973 to 1997 in the Indiana study watershed. For nonsprawl and sprawl scenarios in the Michigan watershed for 1978 to 2040, optimizing land use change placement would have reduced runoff increase by 12.3 percent and 20.5 percent, respectively. The work presented here illustrates both an approach to assessing the magnitude of the impact of smart growth and the significant potential scale of smart growth in moderating runoff changes that result from urbanization. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning.     

Changes in the rhizosphere of metal-accumulating plants evidenced by chemical extractants

The plants Salix viminalis L. (common osier) and Thlaspi caerulescens J. Presl & C. Presl have been studied often because of their high potential to extract heavy metals from soils. The soil properties favoring this phytoextraction are not yet fully known. In this study we compared three frequently used single-extracting agents (NaNO3, diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid [DTPA], and ethylenediaminetetra-acetic acid [EDTA]) with a sequential extraction procedure to describe changes in the different Cd, Cu, and Zn pools in the rhizosphere of S. viminalis and T. caerulescens grown on calcareous and acidic Swiss soils in a pot experiment. The sequential extraction was used to assess the chemical affinities of these heavy metals (HM) in the soil whereas the single extractants were used for estimating the bioavailable HM pools in the soils. Cadmium depletion in several pools was most apparent in the acidic soil, with a significant decrease observed in the NaNO3-, DTPA-, and EDTA-extractable fractions following T. caerulescens growth compared with control pots. The sequential extraction showed that most Cd extracted by the plant from the acidic soil originated from the organic pool, which implies that heavy metals bound to organic matter may constitute a significant part of the bioavailable Cd pool in soils. In the calcareous soil only a small amount of Cd was taken up by T. caerulescens, and this came mainly from the carbonate-bound fraction. This study shows that T. caerulescens, and to a lesser extent S. viminalis, can alter the heavy metal distribution in different soil pools within 90 d.     

Biodegradation of nitrogen-enriched lignite

Biodegradation of nitrogen-enriched lignite by soil bacteria previously acclimated in hydrogen peroxide-acetic acid lignitic substrate was carried out to assess the effects of nitrogen functional groups on the biodegradation of lignite. Chlorination, oxidation plus nitration, and ammoniation were applied in an attempt to modify the chemical structure of lignite so as to obtain a lignitic substrate that is more compatible to the enzymatical system of ordinary soil bacteria than that of unmodified lignite. Incorporation of nitrogen containing functional groups into lignite structure achieved 4.71 wt%, a value five times higher than that usually found in unmodified (raw) lignite. Data collected through a 16 day incubation time, monitoring production as well as depletion of both nitrate and organic acids, concluded that biodegradation was expedited by the incorporation of nitrogen into the structure of lignite. Twenty-eight compounds were identified based on the results from GC/MS analysis of the products.     

Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: The case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.     

Prioritizing Wetland Restoration for Sediment Yield Reduction: A Conceptual Model

In a climate of limited resources, it is often necessary to prioritize restoration efforts geographically. The synoptic approach is an ecologically based tool for geographic prioritization of wetland protection and restoration efforts. The approach was specifically designed to incorporate best professional judgment in cases where information and resources are otherwise limited. Synoptic assessments calculate indices for functional criteria in subunits (watersheds, counties, etc.) of a region and then rank the subunits. Ranks can be visualized in region-scale maps which enable managers to identify areas where efforts optimize functional performance on a regional scale. In this paper, we develop a conceptual model for prioritizing watersheds whose wetlands can be restored to reduce total sediment yield at the watershed outlet. The conceptual model is designed to rank watersheds but not individual wetlands within a watershed. The synoptic approach is valid for applying the sediment yield reduction model because there is high demand for prioritizing disturbed wetlands for restoration, but there is limited, quantitative, accurate information available with which to make decisions. Furthermore, the cost of creating a comprehensive database is prohibitively high. Finally, because the model will be used for planning purposes, and, specifically, for prioritizing based on multiple decisions rather than optimizing a single decision, the consequence of prioritization errors is low. Model results cannot be treated as scientific findings. The conclusions of an assessment are based on judgement, but this judgement is guided by scientific principles and a general understanding of relevant ecological processes. The conceptual model was developed as the first step towards prioritizing of wetland restoration for sediment yield reduction in US EPA Region 4.     

Enrichment and isolation of endosulfan-degrading microorganisms

Endosulfan (6,7,8,9,10,10-hexachloro-1,5,5a,6,9,9a-hexahydro-6,9-methano-2,3,4-benzo-dioxathiepin-3-oxide) is a cyclodiene organochlorine currently used as an insecticide all over the world and its residues are posing a serious environmental threat. This study reports the isolation and identification of enriched microorganisms, capable of degrading endosulfan. Enrichment was achieved by using the insecticide as either the sole source of carbon or sulfur in parallel studies. Two strains each of fungi (F1 and F4) and bacteria (BF2 and B4) were selected using endosulfan as a sole carbon source. A Pandoraea species (Lin-3) previously isolated in our laboratory using lindane (gamma-HCH) as a carbon source was also screened for endosulfan degradation. F1 and F4 (Fusarium ventricosum) degraded alpha-endosulfan by as much as 82.2 and 91.1% and beta-endosulfan by 78.5 and 89.9%, respectively, within 15 d of incubation. Bacterial strains B4 and Lin-3 degraded alpha-endosulfan up to 79.6 and 81.8% and beta-endosulfan up to 83.9 and 86.8%, respectively, in 15 d. Among the bacterial strains isolated by providing endosulfan as a sulfur source, B4s and F4t degraded alpha-endosulfan by as much as 70.4 and 68.5% and beta-endosulfan by 70.4 and 70.8%, respectively, after 15 d. Degradation of the insecticide occurred concomitant with bacterial growth reaching an optical density (OD600) of 0.366 and 0.322 for B4 and Lin-3, respectively. High OD600 was also noted with the other bacterial strains utilizing endosulfan as a sulfur source. Fungal and bacterial strains significantly decreased the pH of the nutrient culture media while growing on endosulfan. The results of this study suggest that these novel strains are a valuable source of potent endosulfan-degrading enzymes for use in enzymatic bioremediation.