PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD ESTIMATION-EASTERN UNITED STATES1

In 1982, the National Weather Service (NWS) published criteria for developing the spatial and temporal precipitation distribution characteristics of Probable Maximum Storms. The criteria, which are intended for use in the United States east of the 105th meridian, involve four variables: (1) location of the storm center, (2) storm-area size, (3) storm orientation, and (4) temporal arrangement of precipitation amounts. A computer program has been developed which applies the NWS criteria to produce hyetographs of spatially-averaged precipitation for a basin, or for each subbasin if the basin is subdividided. The basis and operational characteristics of the program are described, and an application is illustrated in which the program is used in conjunction with a precipitation-runoff simulation program (HEC-1) to compute a Probable Maximum Flood.     

RAINGAGE NETWORK DESIGN USING NEXRAD PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: A general framework is proposed for using precipitation estimates from NEXRAD weather radars in raingage network design. NEXRAD precipitation products are used to represent space time rainfall fields, which can be sampled by hypothetical raingage networks. A stochastic model is used to simulate gage observations based on the areal average precipitation for radar grid cells. The stochastic model accounts for subgrid variability of precipitation within the cell and gage measurement errors. The approach is ideally suited to raingage network design in regions with strong climatic variations in rainfall where conventional methods are sometimes lacking. A case study example involving the estimation of areal average precipitation for catchments in the Catskill Mountains illustrates the approach. The case study shows how the simulation approach can be used to quantify the effects of gage density, basin size, spatial variation of precipitation, and gage measurement error, on network estimates of areal average precipitation. Although the quality of NEXRAD precipitation products imposes limitations on their use in network design, weather radars can provide valuable information for empirical assessment of rain‐gage network estimation errors. Still, the biggest challenge in quantifying estimation errors is understanding subgrid spatial variability. The results from the case study show that the spatial correlation of precipitation at subgrid scales (4 km and less) is difficult to quantify, especially for short sampling durations. Network estimation errors for hourly precipitation are extremely sensitive to the uncertainty in subgrid spatial variability, although for storm total accumulation, they are much less sensitive.     

The annual testosterone profile in cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wrens, Malurus cyaneus, reflects their extreme infidelity

Superb fairy-wrens are cooperatively breeding birds that combine stable, socially monogamous pair bonds and high levels of paternal care, with extreme levels of extra-pair mating and high levels of sexual competition. Our aim was to determine which testosterone correlates would prevail in such a life history that combines features that are conventionally associated with divergent hormone profiles. Unlike the situation in other species with monogamous pair bonds and high levels of paternal care, testosterone was elevated for a very long period of several months. During breeding there was a broad peak in testosterone followed by a gradual decline: this resembles the profile found in polygynous and promiscuous species. We found that three factors correlated with testosterone: development of the sexually selected nuptial plumage, social status and extra-group mating opportunities. Testosterone started increasing months prior to breeding, when the males that are later preferred as extra-group sires develop their nuptial plumage. Although these males did not have higher testosterone levels during breeding, they sustained high testosterone for much longer, and this might lend reliability to this sexual signal. Dominant males in groups had higher testosterone than pair-dwelling males and subordinate helpers. This was not due to differences in age, reproductive capability or mating opportunities, but was presumably associated with the assertion of dominance. In contrast to findings in other species, male testosterone level was not correlated with whether the resident female was fertile or had dependent nestlings. However, testosterone was strongly correlated with the total number of fertile females in the population, and hence with the opportunities for extra-group mating.     

Xeno-estrogenic compounds in precipitation

The exposure to some chemicals can lead to hormone disrupting effects. Presently, much attention is focused on so-called xeno-estrogens, synthetic compounds that interact with hormone receptors causing a number of reactions that eventually lead to effects related to reproduction and development. The current study was initiated to investigate the presence of a number of such compounds in precipitation as a follow-up on a previous study in which pesticide concentrations in air and precipitation were determined. Rainwater samples were collected at about 50 locations in The Netherlands in a four week period. The samples were analysed for bisphenol-A, alkylphenols and alkylphenol ethoxylates, phthalates, flame retardants and synthetic musk compounds. The results clearly indicated the presence of these compounds in precipitation. The concentrations ranged from the low ng l(-1) range for flame retardants to several thousands of ng l(-1) for the phthalates. Bisphenol-A was found in 30% of the samples in concentrations up to 130 ng l(-1), while alkylphenols and alkylphenol ethoxylates were found in virtually all locations in concentrations up to 920 ng l(-1) for the individual compounds. Phthalates were by far the most abundant xeno-estrogens in the precipitation samples and were found in every sample. Di-isodecyl phthalate was found in a surprisingly high concentration of almost 100 000 ng l(-1). Polybrominated flame retardants were found in the low ng l(-1) range and generally in less than 20% of the samples. Noticeable was the finding of hexabromocyclododecane, a replacement for the polybrominted diphenyl ethers at one location in a concentration of almost 2000 ng l(-1). Finally, as expected, synthetic musk compounds were detected in almost all samples. This is especially true for the polycyclic musks HHCB and AHTN. Nitro musks were found, but only on a few locations. Kriging techniques were used to calculate precipitation concentrations in between actual sampling locations to produce contour plots for a number of compounds. These plots clearly show located emission sources for a number of compounds such as bisphenol-A, nonylphenol ethoxylate, phthalates and AHTN. On the contrary, the results for HHCB and some phthalates indicated diffuse emission patterns, probably as the result of the use of consumer products containing these compounds.     

Kinetic of formation for single carbon dioxide and mixed carbon dioxide and tetrahydrofuran hydrates in water and sodium chloride aqueous solution

A laboratory-scale reactor system is built and operated to measure the kinetic of formation for single and mixed carbon dioxide–tetrahydrofuran hydrates. The T-cycle method, which is used to collect the kinetic data, is briefly discussed. For single carbon dioxide hydrate, the induction time decreases with the increase of the initial carbon dioxide pressure up to 2.96 MPa. Beyond this pressure, the induction time is becoming relatively constant with the increase of initial carbon dioxide pressure indicating that the liquid phase is completely supersaturated with carbon dioxide. Experimental results show that the inclusion of tetrahydrofuran reduces the induction time required for hydrate formation. These observations indicate hydrate nucleation process and onset growth are more readily to occur in the presence of tetrahydrofuran. In contrast, the presence of sodium chloride prolongs the induction time due to clustering of water molecules with the ions and the salting-out effects. It is also shown that the degree of subcooling required for hydrate formation is affected by the presence of tetrahydrofuran and sodium chloride in the hydrate forming system. The presence of tetrahydrofuran in the hydrate system significantly reduces the amount of carbon dioxide uptake. The apparent rate constant, k, for those systems are reported.     

Comparison of total mercury and methylmercury cycling at five sites using the small watershed approach

The small watershed approach is well-suited but underutilized in mercury research. We applied the small watershed approach to investigate total mercury (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) dynamics in streamwater at the five diverse forested headwater catchments of the US Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) program. At all sites, baseflow THg was generally less than 1ng L(-1) and MeHg was less than 0.2ng L(-1). THg and MeHg concentrations increased with streamflow, so export was primarily episodic. At three sites, THg and MeHg concentration and export were dominated by the particulate fraction in association with POC at high flows, with maximum THg (MeHg) concentrations of 94 (2.56)ng L(-1) at Sleepers River, Vermont; 112 (0.75)ng L(-1) at Rio Icacos, Puerto Rico; and 55 (0.80)ng L(-1) at Panola Mt., Georgia. Filtered (<0.7microm) THg increased more modestly with flow in association with the hydrophobic acid fraction (HPOA) of DOC, with maximum filtered THg concentrations near 5ng L(-1) at both Sleepers and Icacos. At Andrews Creek, Colorado, THg export was also episodic but was dominated by filtered THg, as POC concentrations were low. MeHg typically tracked THg so that each site had a fairly constant MeHg/THg ratio, which ranged from near zero at Andrews to 15% at the low-relief, groundwater-dominated Allequash Creek, Wisconsin. Allequash was the only site with filtered MeHg consistently above detection, and the filtered fraction dominated both THg and MeHg. Relative to inputs in wet deposition, watershed retention of THg (minus any subsequent volatilization) was 96.6% at Allequash, 60% at Sleepers, and 83% at Andrews. Icacos had a net export of THg, possibly due to historic gold mining or frequent disturbance from landslides. Quantification and interpretation of Hg dynamics was facilitated by the small watershed approach with emphasis on event sampling.     

Maintaining high-volume, low-pressure surface-coating regulatory compliance using the U.s. Environmental Protection Agency's data quality objectives process

To effectively reduce the environmental compliance costs associated with meeting specific requirements under the Aerospace Manufacturing and Rework Facility's National Emission Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants rule, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Data Quality Objective (DQO) process has been proposed as a suitable framework for developing a scientifically defensible surface compliance monitoring program. By estimating the variability associated with the air cap pressure of high- volume, low-pressure (HVLP) surface-coating spray equipment, the number of monitoring samples necessary for an affected facility to claim compliance with a desired statistical confidence level was established. Using data taken from the pilot test facility, the DQO process indicated that the mean of at least 21 HVLP air cap pressure samples taken over the compliance period must be < or = 10 pounds per square inch (psig) gauge for the facility to claim regulatory compliance with 99.99% statistical confidence. Fewer compliance samples could be taken, but that decision would lead to a commensurate reduction in the compliance confidence level. Implementation of the DQO-based compliance sampling plan eliminates the need for an affected facility to sample all regulated HVLP surface-coating processes while still maintaining a high level of compliance assurance.