Deforestation alters phytotelm habitat availability and mosquito production in the Peruvian Amazon.

We quantified the effects of deforestation, and subsequent cultivation and forest regeneration, on the abundance and composition of mosquito larval habitats, specifically phytotelmata (plant-held waters), in the western Amazon basin. Recently deforested sites were characterized by increased phytotelm density (1.6 phytotelmata/m2) and greater relative abundance of fallen-plant-part phytotelmata (76%) compared to intact forests (0.9 phytotelmata/m2 and 25% fallen plant parts). As a result, the total volume of colonizable phytotelm water was significantly larger in new clearings. Subsequent cultivation of cleared land with mixed crops including pineapple and plantain had similar consequences: phytotelm density (2.2 units/m2) was significantly larger in plantations than in forests due to greater relative abundance of water-filled plant axils (71% vs. 39% in forest). Such axils are the preferred larval habitats for Wyeomyia spp. mosquitoes, which showed a similarly significant increase in production in plantations (0.25 larvae/m2) vs. forests (0.04 larvae/m2). Likewise, Limatus spp. mosquitoes were an order of magnitude more abundant in altered landscapes (especially in recently deforested and cultivated areas) than in mature forest, due to increased abundance of fallen-plant-part phytotelmata, in which they are typically the most common colonists. Because they are potential vectors of pathogens in a region of high endemic and emergent virus activity, increases in local abundance of Limatus spp. and Wyeomyia spp. due to large-scale deforestation and agriculture may influence rates of disease transmission.     

Ontogeny of feeding behavior and cranial morphology in the whitespotted bambooshark <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chiloscyllium plagiosum</Emphasis>

Morphological and behavioral development of the feeding apparatus over early ontogeny can profoundly affect the ability of an organism to obtain nourishment, ultimately impacting survival. The interplay between morphology and behavior over the first year of life was studied in the whitespotted bambooshark Chiloscyllium plagiosum (Bennett 1830) beginning in March of 2002 using high-speed videography and dissection. Externally measured variables describing cranial growth, and jaw weight, scaled at or near isometry while jaw and hyoid musculature, especially the coracohyoideus, demonstrated considerable hypertrophication. The difference between the volume of the buccal cavity when open and closed scaled with substantial positive allometry while the time to reach maximum jaw and hyoid abduction exhibited weak allometry, resulting in the capacity for more rapid and greater volumetric intake during feeding. In addition, the relative forward motion of the predator during a strike decreased over ontogeny and the feeding modality became more suction-dominated. Kinematic variables exhibited little variability and the primary aspect of food capture that was modulated in response to food type was the forward motion of the predator. An increase in capture success was noted for live, elusive shrimp over ontogeny indicating that morphological and behavioral changes have direct consequences for prey acquisition. Conservation of head shape coupled with a narrow behavioral repertoire is hypothesized to increase prey capture success in the wild over ontogeny as individuals become more proficient in the execution of a single, low-variability, suction-dominated capture behavior.     

The economics of forestry when the rate of harvest is constrained

Harvesting sequences which maximize the present value of an on-going forest are derived. Control theory is used to allow for various impingements on the rate of harvest. New harvesting rules are derived which generalize classical results. These emerge as special cases in an extended context.     

Bi-directional sex change: testing the growth-rate advantage model

Bi-directional sex change in coral-dwelling fishes (genera Gobiodon and Paragobiodon) has been attributed to a growth-rate advantage for females during the non-breeding season. This model predicts that the smallest individual in a newly formed pair should always be female. To determine if a growth-rate advantage exists for female Gobiodon histrio, I monitored the growth of males and females in natural pairs during the breeding and non-breeding season. I then used a manipulative field experiment to test four predictions of the growth-rate advantage model: (1) the larger individual should change sex to male in new pairs containing two females; (2) the smaller individual should change sex to female in new pairs containing two males; (3) neither individual should change sex in heterosexual pairs where the male is larger than the female; and (4) both individuals should change sex in heterosexual pairs where the female is larger than the male. A growth-rate advantage was detected for female G. histrio during the non-breeding season; however, only the first three of the predicted outcomes were observed in the manipulative experiment. Sex change did not occur in heterosexual pairs where the female was larger than the male. Furthermore, growth did not differ between sex-changed and non-sex-changed fish; therefore, the absence of sex change in these pairs is not due to a growth cost to sex change. I propose that the risk of moving among spatially isolated habitat patches and the low probability of finding a mate have been more important than sex-specific differences in growth rates to the evolution of bi-directional sex change in coral-dwelling gobies.     

Maternal serum free beta hCG screening: Results of studies including 480 cases of down syndrome

The median maternal serum free beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) multiple of the median (MOM) of 480 Down syndrome cases in the second trimester was 2·64, significantly greater than the reported median MOM of intact hCG (p<0·0001). In 234 of these cases from retrospective and prospective studies, the effectiveness of maternal serum free beta hCG was evaluated in combination with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and maternal age in second-trimester Down syndrome screening. Down syndrome detection in the gestational age range of 14–16 weeks was 82 per cent. In all gestational weeks (14–22), a 77·7 per cent Down syndrome detection rate was achieved. In prospective screening of 44 272 patients under the age of 35 years, 69 per cent of Down syndrome cases were detected (73 per cent in gestational weeks 14–16). The false-positive rate for the prospective study was 3·8 per cent. The use of free beta hCG combined with maternal serum AFP and maternal age-related risk for Down syndrome in a screening population (i.e., women under 35 years) yields an improved detection efficiency over other protocols.     

Cytogenetic analysis of 2928 CVS samples and 1075 amniocenteses from randomized studies

We report cytogenetic results from a randomized Danish chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and amniocentesis (AC) study including 2928 placental and 1075 amniotic fluid specimens processed in the same laboratory. The results are presented in groups comparing CVS with amniocentesis and transabdominal (TA) CVS with transcervical (TC) CVS as randomized. More abnormalities and more ambiguous diagnostic problems were found in placental tissues than in amniotic cells. There were no diagnostic errors and no incorrect sex predictions. Mosaicism was detected in 1 per cent of all cases of CVS (discordancies included). When confirmation studies were done, 90 per cent were found to be confined to the placenta. Eight cases (0.7 per cent) of mosaicism/pseudomosaicism were seen in amniotic fluid specimens, and two cases of five with confirmation studies were confirmed in the fetus. The rate of mosaicism/pseudomosaicism in CVS and AC specimens differed (P <0.05). The rate of pseudomosaicism in cultures of villi and amniotic fluid cells was 0.5 and 0.6 per cent, respectively. Single-cell aneuploidy was observed in 1.8 per cent of villi and 1.4 per cent of amniotic fluid cell specimens. Maternal cell contamination (MCC) was seen more often after TC sampling (4.5 per cent) compared with TA sampling (1.5 per cent), but posed no problems in interpretation. Compared with the processing of cultured specimens, the short-term method of preparation of villi in our laboratory doubled the technicians' workload. For practical and economic reasons we have ceased the routine use of short-term preparations.     

Monitoring Needs to Transform Amazonian Forest Maintenance Into a Global Warming-Mitigation Option

Two approaches are frequently mentioned in proposals to use tropical forest maintenance as a carbon offset. One is to set up, specific reserves, funding the establishment, demarcation, and guarding of these units. Monitoring, in this case, consists of the relatively straightforward process of confirming that the forest stands in question continue to exist. In Amazonia, where large expanses of tropical forest still exist, the reserve approach has the logical weakness of being completely open to “leakage”: with the implantation of any given reserve, the people who would have been deforesting in the reserve area will probably continue to clear the same amount of forest somewhere else in the region. The second approach is through policy changes aimed at reducing the rate of clearing, but not limited to specific reserves or areas of forest. This second approach addresses more fundamental aspects of the tropical deforestation problem, but has the disadvantages of not assuring the permance of forest and of not resulting in a visible product that can be convincingly credited, to the existence of the project. In order for credit to be assigned to policy change projects, functioning models of the deforestation process must be developed that are capable of producing seenarios with and without different policy changes. This requires understanding the process of deforestation, which depends on monitoring in order to have information as a time series. Information is needed both from satellite imagery and from on-the-ground observations on who occupies the land and why the observed changes occur. Monitoring must be done by individual property if causal factors are to be identified reliably; this is best achieved using a database in a Geographical, Information System (GIS) that includes property boundaries. Once policy changes are made in practice, not only deforestation but also the policies themselves must be monitored. Deerees and laws are not the same as changes in practice; the initiation and continued application of changes must therefore be confirmed regularly. The value of carbon benefits from Amazonia depends directly on the credibility and transparency of monitoring. The great potential value of carbon maintenance in Amazonia should provide ample reason for Amazonian countries to strengthen and increase the transparency of their monitoring efforts.     

Risk-based prenatal screening for trisomy 18 using alpha-fetoprotein,unconjugated oestriol and human chorionic gonadotropin

Nine centres collaborated to examine the feasibility of a screening method for trisomy 18 that was based on assigning individual risk, using a combination of maternal age and measurements of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG). Second-trimester measurements of these analytes were obtained from 94 trisomy 18 pregnancies. In the 89 pregnancies without an associated open defect, the median levels for AFP, uE3, and hCG were 0.65, 0.43 and 0.36 multiples of the unaffected population median, respectively. The strongest individual predictor of risk for trisomy 18 was uE3, followed by hCG, AFP, and maternal age, in that order. Using a method of individual risk estimation that is based on the three markers and maternal age, 60 per cent of pregnancies associated with trisomy 18 would be detected at a risk cut-off level of 1:100, with a false-positive rate of about 0.2 per cent. One in nine pregnancies identified as being at increased risk for trisomy 18 would be expected to have an affected pregnancy. This risk-based screening method is more efficient than an existing method that is based on fixed analyte cut-off levels. Even though the birth prevalence of trisomy 18 is low, prenatal screening can be justified when performed in conjunction with Down syndrome screening and when a high proportion of women offered amniocentesis have an affected fetus.     

How Climate and Vegetation Influence the fire Regime of the Alaskan Boreal Biome: The Holocene Perspective

We synthesize recent results from lake-sediment studies of Holocene fire-climate-vegetation interactions in Alaskan boreal ecosystems. At the millennial time scale, the most robust feature of these records is an increase in fire occurrence with the establishment of boreal forests dominated by Picea mariana: estimated mean fire-return intervals decreased from ≥300 yrs to as low as ∼80 yrs. This fire-vegetation relationship occurred at all sites in interior Alaska with charcoal-based fire reconstructions, regardless of the specific time of P. mariana arrival during the Holocene. The establishment of P. mariana forests was associated with a regional climatic trend toward cooler/wetter conditions. Because such climatic change should not directly enhance fire occurrence, the increase in fire frequency most likely reflects the influence of highly flammable P. mariana forests, which are more conducive to fire ignition and spread than the preceding vegetation types (tundra, and woodlands/forests dominated by Populus or Picea glauca). Increased lightning associated with altered atmospheric circulation may have also played a role in certain areas where fire frequency increased around 4000 calibrated years before present (BP) without an apparent increase in the abundance of P. mariana. When viewed together, the paleo-fire records reveal that fire histories differed among sites in the same modern fire regime and that the fire regime and plant community similar to those of today became established at different times. Thus the spatial array of regional fire regimes was non-static through the Holocene. However, the patterns and causes of the spatial variation remain largely unknown. Advancing our understanding of climate-fire-vegetation interactions in the Alaskan boreal biome will require a network of charcoal records across various ecoregions, quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions, and improved knowledge of how sedimentary charcoal records fire events. In this paper, charcoal refers to macroscopic (≥180 μm) as opposed to microscopic (< 180 μm) particles unless indicated otherwise. Radiocarbon ages were converted to calibrated years before AD 1950 using the atmospheric calibration data set (Stuiver et al. 1998).