Estimating the number of active and successful bald eagle nests:an application of the dual frame method

Monitoring the number of animals in a wildlife population is an important task. In this paper, we estimate the number of active and successful bald eagle nests in a specific region using dual frame sampling techniques. The dual frame method combines independent samples from an incomplete list frame and an area frame that is assumed to be complete. Hartley's screening estimator is used to combine sample information from both frames. This methodology will be useful for monitoring any wildlife population where the breeding individuals have highly visible nesting territories which tend to be stable over many years.     

Nonparametric MLE incorporation of heterogeneity and model testing into premarked cohort studies

We utilize mixture models and nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation to both develop a likelihood ratio test (lrt) for a common simplifying assumption and to allow heterogeneity within premarked cohort studies. Our methods allow estimation of the entire probability model and thus one can not only estimate many parameters of interest but one can also bootstrap from the estimated model to predict many things, including the standard deviations of estimators. Simulations suggest that our lrt has the appropriate protection for Type I error and often has good power. In practice, our lrt is important for determining the appropriateness of estimators and in examining if a simple design with only one capture period could be utilized for a future similar study.     

Railway-Associated Attractants as Potential Contaminants for Wildlife

Environmental Management - Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) appear to be attracted to natural and anthropogenic forage along railways, which may increase collision vulnerability, but also potentially...     

A robust design capture-recapture model with multiple age classes augmented with population assignment data

The relative contribution of in situ reproduction versus immigration to the recruitment process is important to ecologists. Here we consider a robust design superpopulation capture-recapture model for a population with two age classes augmented with population assignment data. We first use age information to estimate the entry probabilities of new animals originating via in situ reproduction and immigration separately for all except the first period. Then we combine age and population assignment information with the capture-recapture model, which enables us to estimate the entry probability of in situ births and the entry probability of immigrants separately for all sampling periods. Further, this augmentation of age specific capture-recapture data with population assignment data greatly improves the estimators’ precision. We apply our new model to a capture-recapture data set with genetic information for banner-tailed kangaroo rats in Southern Arizona. We find that many more individuals are born in situ than are immigrants for all time periods. Young animals have lower survival probabilities than adults born in situ. Adult animals born in situ have higher survival probabilities than adults that were immigrants.     

A combination line transect and capture-recapture sampling model for multiple observers in aerial surveys

We present a robust sampling methodology to estimate population size using line transect and capture-recapture procedures for aerial surveys. Aerial surveys usually underestimate population density due to animals being missed. A combination of capture-recapture and line transect sampling methods with multiple observers allows violation of the assumption that all animals on the centreline are sighted from the air. We illustrate our method with an example of inanimate objects which shows evidence of failure of the assumption that all objects on the centreline have probability 1 of being detected. A simulation study is implemented to evaluate the performance of three variations of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator: the overall estimator, the stratified estimator, and the general stratified estimator based on the combined likelihood proposed in this paper. The stratified Lincoln-Petersen estimator based on the combined likelihood is found to be generally superior to the other estimators.     

A capture-recapture model with heterogeneity and behavioural response

We develop the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the full M_bh capture-recapture model which utilizes both initial capture and recapture data and permits both heterogeneity (h) between animals and behavioural (b) response to capture. Our MLE procedure utilizes non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation of mixture distributions (Lindsay, 1983; Lindsay and Roeder, 1992) and the EM algorithm (Dempsteret al., 1977). Our MLE estimate provides the first non-parametric estimate of the bivariate capture-recapture distribution.Since non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation exists for submodels M_h (allowing heterogeneity only), Mb (allowing behavioural response only) and M₀ (allowing no changes), we develop maximum likelihood-based model selection, specifically the Akaike information criterion (AIC) (Akaike, 1973). The AIC procedure does well in detecting behavioural response but has difficulty in detecting heterogeneity.     

Instream sensor results suggest soil–plant processes produce three distinct seasonal patterns of nitrate concentrations in the Ohio River Basin

The Ohio River Basin (ORB) is responsible for 35% of total nitrate loading to the Gulf of Mexico yet controls on nitrate timing require investigation. We used a set of submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzers located at 13 stations across the ORB to examine nitrate loading and seasonality. Observed nitrate concentrations ranged from 0.3 to 2.8 mg L⁻¹ N in the Ohio River's mainstem. The Ohio River experiences a greater than fivefold increase in annual nitrate load from the upper basin to the river's junction with the Mississippi River (74–415 Gg year⁻¹). The nitrate load increase corresponds with the greater drainage area, a 50% increase in average annual nitrate concentration, and a shift in land cover across the drainage area from 5% cropland in the upper basin to 19% cropland at the Ohio River's junction with the Mississippi River. Time-series decomposition of nitrate concentration and nitrate load showed peaks centered in January and June for 85% of subbasin-year combinations and nitrate lows in summer and fall. Seasonal patterns of the terrestrial system, including winter dormancy, spring planting, and summer and fall growing-harvest seasons, are suggested to control nitrate timing in the Ohio River as opposed to controls by river discharge and internal cycling. The dormant season from December to March carries 51% of the ORB's nitrate load, and nitrate delivery is high across all subbasins analyzed, regardless of land cover. This season is characterized by soil nitrate leaching likely from mineralization of soil organic matter and release of legacy nitrogen. Nitrate experiences fast transit to the river owing to the ORB's mature karst geology in the south and tile drainage in the northwest. The planting season from April to June carries 26% of the ORB's nitrate and is a period of fertilizer delivery from upland corn and soybean agriculture to streams. The harvest season from July to November carries 22% of the ORB's nitrate and is a time of nitrate retention on the landscape. We discuss nutrient management in the ORB including fertilizer efficiency, cover crops, and nitrate retention using constructed measures.     

Impediments to refractory recycling decision-making

This paper focuses on organizational impediments to the successful implementation of industrial recycling programs. Even if a technologically viable and mutually beneficial solution were to exist, there are a number of organizational impediments that make it unlikely to succeed unless the benefits are very large and apparent. These impediments stem from the difficulty in identifying potential partners and involving the appropriate individuals within the firms that understand the technical requirements, value the strategic benefits and are receptive towards establishing the industrial recycling relationship. This dilemma applies to many industrial recycling opportunities, but solutions do exist. One way to avoid some of these obstacles is to use a middleman, or broker, who can play several crucial roles to establish the relationship. This paper describes the impediments and key broker roles, and provides a case study dealing with refractory recycling. It provides a case study that documents a recycling relationship between an aluminum-manufacturing firm that produces a large volume of spent refractories and a regional portland cement producer that is using the spent refractories as an alternative raw material source. This paper also provides a thorough literature search in the area of refractory recycling. Finally, the case study provides an opportunity for analysis and reflection on the implications of these findings to industrial firms, industrial societies and governmental agencies that seek to encourage successful recycling operations.