Meta-Modeling to Assess the Possible Future of Paris Agreement

In the meta-modeling approach, one builds a numerically tractable dynamic optimization or game model in which the parameters are identified through statistical emulation of a detailed large scale numerical simulation model. In this paper, we show how this approach can be used to assess the economic impacts of possible climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement. One indicates why it is appropriate to assume that an international carbon market, with emission rights given to different groups of countries will exist. One discusses the approach to evaluate correctly abatement costs and welfare losses incurred by different groups of countries when implementing climate policies. Finally, using a recently proposed meta-model of game with a coupled constraint on a cumulative CO₂ emissions budget, we assess several new scenarios for possible fair burden sharing in climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement.     

Mercury speciation in the Persian Gulf sediments

The concentrations of total mercury (Hg) and methyl mercury (MMHg) were determined in 78 marine sediments in the Iranian coastal waters of the Persian Gulf along nine transects perpendicular to the coastline. Total Hg ranged from 10 to 56 ng g( - 1)d.w. and MMHg from 0.1 to 0.4 ng g( - 1) d.w. The fraction of methyl mercury accounted from 0.3% to 1.1% of the total mercury amount. The organic carbon (OC) content ranged from 0.4% to 1.8%. The present study indicates that the levels of Hg in the sediments of the Iranian coast of the Persian Gulf were all in the concentration range of unpolluted areas regarding Hg (<100 ng g( - 1)). The concentrations of total Hg, methyl mercury and organic carbon were generally higher in the deeper stations. Total Hg and MMHg were significantly correlated, but no significant correlations could be found between the Hg and OC levels.     

On how environmental stringency influences adoption of best management practices in agriculture

There are relatively few Federal environmental regulations that influence agricultural production in the US. However, many local and state environmental rules may influence the management practices on US farms as might interactions between urban population centers and agricultural producers. Detailed analysis of corn farms gives insight into these relationships and suggests that stringent environmental regulations could increase the likelihood of adoption of certain conservation practices, all else being constant, but that the interaction between urban populations has less of an effect on the adoption decisions.     

Propanil in a Manitoba soil: an interactive spreadsheet model based on conventional chemical kinetics

An interactive spreadsheet model has been created for quantitative predictions of propanil sorption and reaction in a slurried Manitoba clay soil. Based on experimental values for the numbers of empty and filled sorption sites as reactants and products, the reaction mechanism has been described with conventional chemical kinetics. The on line HPLC μ extraction method revealed labile sorption, intraparticle diffusion, and a chemical reaction. Laidler's integral rate law for second order kinetics describes the labile sorption. Desorption, intraparticle diffusion, and the chemical reaction are all described by first order kinetics. The time dependent effects of initial concentration and amount of slurried soil can be predicted for sorption, intraparticle diffusion, and the amount of reaction product. Suggested applications include storm runoff and inputs for fate and transport hydrology models.     

Heat wave hazard classification and risk assessment using artificial intelligence fuzzy logic

The average summer temperatures as well as the frequency and intensity of hot days and heat waves are expected to increase due to climate change. Motivated by this consequence, we propose a methodology to evaluate the monthly heat wave hazard and risk and its spatial distribution within large cities. A simple urban climate model with assimilated satellite-derived land surface temperature images was used to generate a historic database of urban air temperature fields. Heat wave hazard was then estimated from the analysis of these hourly air temperatures distributed at a 1-km grid over Athens, Greece, by identifying the areas that are more likely to suffer higher temperatures in the case of a heat wave event. Innovation lies in the artificial intelligence fuzzy logic model that was used to classify the heat waves from mild to extreme by taking into consideration their duration, intensity and time of occurrence. The monthly hazard was subsequently estimated as the cumulative effect from the individual heat waves that occurred at each grid cell during a month. Finally, monthly heat wave risk maps were produced integrating geospatial information on the population vulnerability to heat waves calculated from socio-economic variables.     

Different collector types for sampling deposition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons--comparison of measurement results and their uncertainty

Different collector types, sample workup procedures and analysis methods to measure the deposition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were tested and compared. Whilst sample workup and analysis methods did not influence the results of PAH deposition measurements, using different collector types changed the measured deposition rates of PAH significantly. The results obtained with a funnel-bottle collector showed the highest deposition rates and a low measurement uncertainty. The deposition rates obtained with the wet-only collectors were the lowest at industrial sites and under dry weather conditions. For the open-jar collectors the measurement uncertainty was high. Only at an industrial site with extremely high PAH deposition rates the results of open-jar collectors were comparable to those obtained with funnel-bottle collectors. Thus, if bulk deposition of PAH has to be measured, funnel-bottle combinations are proved to be the collectors of choice. These collectors were the only ones always fulfilling the requirements of European legislation.     

Lake Water Levels and Associated Hydrologic Characteristics in the Conterminous U.S.

Establishing baseline hydrologic characteristics for lakes in the United States (U.S.) is critical to evaluate changes to lake hydrology. We used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Lakes Assessment 2007 and 2012 surveys to assess hydrologic characteristics of a population of ~45,000 lakes in the conterminous U.S. based on probability samples of ~1,000 lakes/yr distributed across nine ecoregions. Lake hydrologic study variables include water‐level drawdown (i.e., vertical decline and horizontal littoral exposure) and two water stable isotope‐derived parameters: evaporation‐to‐inflow (E:I) and water residence time. We present (1) national and regional distributions of the study variables for both natural and man‐made lakes and (2) differences in these characteristics between 2007 and 2012. In 2007, 59% of the population of U.S. lakes had Greater than normal or Excessive drawdown relative to water levels in ecoregional reference lakes with minimal human disturbances; whereas in 2012, only 20% of lakes were significantly drawn down beyond normal ranges. Water isotope‐derived variables did not differ significantly between survey years in contrast to drawdown. Median E:I was 20% indicating that flow‐through processes dominated lake water regimes. For 75% of U.S. lakes, water residence time was less than one year and was longer in natural vs. man‐made lakes. Our study provides baseline ranges to assess local and regional lake hydrologic status and inform management decisions in changing environmental conditions.     

Characterization of ²⁴¹ Am and ¹³⁴Cs bioaccumulation in the king scallop Pecten maximus: investigation via three exposure pathways

In order to understand the bioaccumulation of ²⁴¹Am and ¹³⁴Cs in scallops living in sediments, the uptake and depuration kinetics of these two elements were investigated in the king scallop Pecten maximus exposed via seawater, food, or sediment under laboratory conditions. Generally, ²⁴¹Am accumulation was higher and its retention was stronger than ¹³⁴Cs. This was especially obvious when considering whole animals exposed through seawater with whole-body concentration factors (CF_7d) of 62 vs. 1, absorption efficiencies (A_0l) of 78 vs. 45 for seawater and biological half-lives (T_b½l) of 892 d vs. 22 d for ²⁴¹Am and ¹³⁴Cs, respectively. In contrast, following a single feeding with radiolabelled phytoplankton, the assimilation efficiency (AE) and T_b½l of ¹³⁴Cs were higher than those of ²⁴¹Am (AE: 28% vs. 20%; T_b½l: 14 d vs. 9 d). Among scallop tissues, the shells always contained the higher proportion of the total body burden of ²⁴¹Am whatever the exposure pathway. In contrast, the whole soft parts presented the major fraction of whole-body burden of ¹³⁴Cs, which was generally associated with muscular tissues. Our results showed that the two radionuclides have contrasting behaviors in scallops, in relation to their physico-chemical properties.     

Identification of multixenobiotic defence mechanism (MXR) background activities in the freshwater bivalve Dreissena polymorpha as reference values for its use as biomarker in contaminated ecosystems

The biological defence mechanism called MXR or MXD for multixenobiotic resistance or defence protects cells against the entry and the accumulation of xenobiotics. As the defence is modulated by man made chemicals, MXR is used as a biomarker of organisms' exposure to environmental contamination. However, to reliably assess and evidence MXR induction, the use of a reference level is required. In this context, we focused on MXR background level in a freshwater bivalve, the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, in order to propose its use as a reference during MXR evaluation. We monitored the MXR transport activity in mussels collected either in a natural population or in a caged population and then transplanted to clean water in the laboratory. The results showed that MXR activity was decreased to its baseline level after an eight to nine day depuration period (13.1+/-3.1; 7+/-2.6; 13.7+/-3.9 pmol RB min(-1)org(-1) after three experiments of laboratory depurations). Moreover, significant MXR induction was measured in depurated zebra mussels exposed to contaminated sites (39.6+/-3.7; 59.2+/-20.3 pmol RB min(-1)org(-1) after two experiments of field exposure), showing that the laboratory depuration did not affect the induction potential. The MXR responses (decrease as well as increase) occurred in few days and were highly significant, highlighting its reactivity in zebra mussels. Finally, this paper confirms the usefulness of MXR as a tool in biomonitoring studies and provides a protocol for field experiments that enables to establish and use the background level of MXR activity as a reference.     

Thirty years of land-cover change in Bolivia

Land-cover change in eastern lowland Bolivia was documented using Landsat images from five epochs for all landscapes situated below the montane tree line at approximately 3000 m, including humid forest, inundated forest, seasonally dry forest, and cloud forest, as well as scrublands and grasslands. Deforestation in eastern Bolivia in 2004 covered 45,411 km2, representing approximately 9% of the original forest cover, with an additional conversion of 9042 km2 of scrub and savanna habitats representing 17% of total historical land-cover change. Annual rates of land-cover change increased from approximately 400 km2 y(-1) in the 1960s to approximately 2900 km2 y(-1) in the last epoch spanning 2001 to 2004. This study provides Bolivia with a spatially explicit information resource to monitor future land-cover change, a prerequisite for proposed mechanisms to compensate countries for reducing carbon emissions as a result of deforestation. A comparison of the most recent epoch with previous periods shows that policies enacted in the late 1990s to promote forest conservation had no observable impact on reducing deforestation and that deforestation actually increased in some protected areas. The rate of land-cover change continues to increase linearly nationwide, but is growing faster in the Santa Cruz department because of the expansion of mechanized agriculture and cattle farms.