Predicting hourly air pollutant levels using artificial neural networks coupled with uncertainty analysis by Monte Carlo simulations

Recent progress in developing artificial neural network (ANN) metamodels has paved the way for reliable use of these models in the prediction of air pollutant concentrations in urban atmosphere. However, improvement of prediction performance, proper selection of input parameters and model architecture, and quantification of model uncertainties remain key challenges to their practical use. This study has three main objectives: to select an ensemble of input parameters for ANN metamodels consisting of meteorological variables that are predictable by conventional weather forecast models and variables that properly describe the complex nature of pollutant source conditions in a major city, to optimize the ANN models to achieve the most accurate hourly prediction for a case study (city of Tehran), and to examine a methodology to analyze uncertainties based on ANN and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). In the current study, the ANNs were constructed to predict criteria pollutants of nitrogen oxides (NO_x), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), nitrogen monoxide (NO), ozone (O₃), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM₁₀) in Tehran based on the data collected at a monitoring station in the densely populated central area of the city. The best combination of input variables was comprehensively investigated taking into account the predictability of meteorological input variables and the study of model performance, correlation coefficients, and spectral analysis. Among numerous meteorological variables, wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity and wind direction were chosen as input variables for the ANN models. The complex nature of pollutant source conditions was reflected through the use of hour of the day and month of the year as input variables and the development of different models for each day of the week. After that, ANN models were constructed and validated, and a methodology of computing prediction intervals (PI) and probability of exceeding air quality thresholds was developed by combining ANNs and MCSs based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The results showed that proper ANN models can be used as reliable metamodels for the prediction of hourly air pollutants in urban environments. High correlations were obtained with R ² of more than 0.82 between modeled and observed hourly pollutant levels for CO, NO_x, NO₂, NO, and PM₁₀. However, predicted O₃ levels were less accurate. The combined use of ANNs and MCSs seems very promising in analyzing air pollution prediction uncertainties. Replacing deterministic predictions with probabilistic PIs can enhance the reliability of ANN models and provide a means of quantifying prediction uncertainties.     

Effect of fungicides on plant growth promoting activities of phosphate solubilizing Pseudomonasputida isolated from mustard (Brassica compestris) rhizosphere

This study was navigated to examine the effects of fungicide-stress on the activities of plant-growth-promoting rhizobacterium Pseudomonasputida with inherent phosphate solubilizing activity. The fungicide-tolerant and phosphate solubilizing P.putida strain PS9 was isolated from the mustard rhizosphere and tentatively identified following standard morphological, physiological and biochemical tests. To further consolidate the identity of the strain PS9, the 16S rDNA sequence analysis was performed. Following the BLAST program, the strain PS9 was identified as P.putida. In the presence of the varying concentrations (0-3200 μg mL⁻¹; at a two fold dilution interval) of four fungicides of different chemical families (tebuconazole, hexaconazole, metalaxyl and kitazin) amended in minimal salt agar medium, the P.putida strain PS9 showed a variable tolerance levels (1400-3200 μg mL⁻¹) against the tested fungicides. The strain PS9 produced plant-growth-promoting (PGP) substances in significant amount in the absence of fungicides. In general, fungicides applied at the recommended, two and three times of the recommended rates, decreased the PGP attributes of P.putida the strain PS9 and affected the PGP activities in concentration-dependent manner. Fungicides at the recommended dose had minor reducing effect while the doses higher than the recommended dose significantly reduced the PGP activities (phosphate solubilization, salicylic acid, 2,3-dihydroxy benzoic acid, and indole-3-acetic acid production except exo-polysaccharides, hydrogen cyanate and ammonia production). Of the four fungicides, tebuconazole generally, showed maximum toxicity to the PGP activities of the strain PS9. This study inferred that fungicides must be examined in vitro for their possible adverse effects on soil micro flora before their application in agricultural fields. Moreover, the results also suggested the prerequisite of application of fungicide-tolerant PGPR strains as bioinoculants so that their PGP activities may not be suppressed under fungicide stress.     

Chronic exposure of arsenic via drinking water and its adverse health impacts on humans

Worldwide chronic arsenic (As) toxicity has become a human health threat. Arsenic exposure to humans mainly occurs from the ingestion of As contaminated water and food. This communication presents a review of current research conducted on the adverse health effects on humans exposed to As-contaminated water. Chronic exposure of As via drinking water causes various types of skin lesions such as melanosis, leucomelanosis, and keratosis. Other manifestations include neurological effects, obstetric problems, high blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, diseases of the respiratory system and of blood vessels including cardiovascular, and cancers typically involving the skin, lung, and bladder. The skin seems to be quite susceptible to the effects of As. Arsenic-induced skin lesions seem to be the most common and initial symptoms of arsenicosis. More systematic studies are needed to determine the link between As exposure and its related cancer and noncancer end points.     

Monitoring and assessment of seasonal land cover changes using remote sensing: a 30-year (1987–2016) case study of Hamoun Wetland,Iran

The availability of Landsat data allows improving the monitoring and assessment of large-scale areas with land cover changes in rapid developing regions. Thus, we pretend to show a combined methodology to assess land cover changes (LCCs) in the Hamoun Wetland region (Iran) over a period of 30-year (1987–2016) and to quantify seasonal and decadal landscape and land use variabilities. Using the pixel-based change detection (PBCD) and the post-classification comparison (PCC), four land cover classes were compared among spring, summer, and fall seasons. Our findings showed for the water class a higher correlation between spring and summer (R²?=?0.94) than fall and spring (R²?=?0.58) seasons. Before 2000, ~?50% of the total area was covered by bare soil and 40% by water. However, after 2000, more than 70% of wetland was transformed into bare soils. The results of the long-term monitoring period showed that fall season was the most representative time to show the inter-annual variability of LCCs monitoring and the least affected by seasonal-scale climatic variations. In the Hamoun Wetland region, land cover was highly controlled by changes in surface water, which in turn responded to both climatic and anthropogenic impacts. We were able to divide the water budget monitoring into three different ecological regimes: (1) a period of high water level, which sustained healthy extensive plant life, and approximately 40% of the total surface water was retained until the end of the hydrological year; (2) a period of drought during high evaporation rates was observed, and a mean wetland surface of about 85% was characterized by bare land; and (3) a recovery period in which water levels were overall rising, but they are not maintained from year to year. After a spring flood, in 2006 and 2013, grassland reached the highest extensions, covering till more than 20% of the region, and the dynamics of the ecosystem were affected by the differences in moisture. The Hamoun wetland region served as an important example and demonstration of the feedbacks between land cover and land uses, particularly as pertaining to water resources available to a rapidly expanding population.     

Effects of water shortage in Kabul River network on the plain areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,Pakistan

Kabul River is a shared resource of Pakistan and Afghanistan and is a major source of economy for both countries. It is used for irrigation, power generation, fishery, hunting, and recreation. This study explored human-induced impact on Kabul River and its associated wetlands. For an in-depth study, the area situated between the two tributaries of Kabul River, i.e., Shalam and Naguman Rivers, was selected. The focus of the study was to find out reduction in the wetland areas, its causes, and associated impacts. For this purpose, a survey was conducted in 10 villages selected randomly in 10 union councils. The study revealed that anthropogenic activities, such as wetland farming, grazing residential encroachment, and industrial development, have caused severe alteration in the wetland of the study areas. The results revealed that before the 1990s, 33.55% area of the study area was wetland. Due to regular decrease in the flow of the Kabul River System and human encroachment, it has engulfed 68.40% of the total wetland leaving behind only 10.60% wetland. This can be termed as a big ecological disturbance. In the long run, this will have negative effects on both the countries. It is therefore recommended to give proper attention to this important wetland, positioning between Shalam and Naguman Rivers and to conserve it. One of the solutions is to regulate the natural flow of Kabul River.     

Determination of nickel, copper, zinc and lead in human scalp hair in Syrian occupationally exposed workers by total reflection X-ray fluorescence

In this study, an attempt has been made to study methane flux and quantification of heavy metals from Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) landfill areas of selected cities in India. During the period of study, the average value of methane flux was estimated from these landfill areas varied from 146–454 mg/m2/h. Methane emission from landfill is of serious environmental global concern as it accounts for approximately 15 percentages of current Greenhouse gas emissions. It has been estimated that methane emission, from landfill areas in the world, in next two decades would be same as that what is emitted from paddy fields presently. Besides, the estimation of methane flux, quantification of some heavy metals was conducted to analyse the suitability of using MSW as compost. The average values for metals were observed to be both within the range of USEPA and Indian standards for MSW disposal in landfill areas and to be used as compost respectively.     

Evaluation of Pb, Cu, Zn, Cd, Ni and Fe levels in Rosmarinus officinalis labaiatae (Rosemary) medicinal plant and soils in selected zones in Jordan

The concentration of heavy metals including Pb, Cu, Zn, Cd, Ni and Fe in different parts of Rosmarinus officinalis medicinal plant grown in Jordan were evaluated. Medicinal plant samples and soil samples were collected from three different zones in Jordan (Irbid, Al-Mafraq and Ma’an). Samples were analyzed by atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) after chemical treatments using acid digestion procedures. Heavy metal levels in washed and unwashed in each part of R. officinalis were analyzed and compared statistically. Results show that concentrations of investigated heavy metals were varied from plant part to another part of R. officinalis. For example, Pb, Zn, Cu and Cd in most parts of R. officinalis in the three zones were concentrated in the following order: flowers, leaves, stems, whereas Pb, Ni and Fe were concentrated in order as follows: leaves, flowers and stems. Heavy metal concentrations in soil samples was evaluated and correlated with their levels in R. officinalis. Two standard reference materials of plant (SRM 1790a; spinach leaves and CRM 281; rye grass) and one standard reference materials of soil (GBW 07406) were examined to validate the method used. Results show that high recoveries were obtained.     

Mercury speciation in the Persian Gulf sediments

The concentrations of total mercury (Hg) and methyl mercury (MMHg) were determined in 78 marine sediments in the Iranian coastal waters of the Persian Gulf along nine transects perpendicular to the coastline. Total Hg ranged from 10 to 56 ng g( - 1)d.w. and MMHg from 0.1 to 0.4 ng g( - 1) d.w. The fraction of methyl mercury accounted from 0.3% to 1.1% of the total mercury amount. The organic carbon (OC) content ranged from 0.4% to 1.8%. The present study indicates that the levels of Hg in the sediments of the Iranian coast of the Persian Gulf were all in the concentration range of unpolluted areas regarding Hg (<100 ng g( - 1)). The concentrations of total Hg, methyl mercury and organic carbon were generally higher in the deeper stations. Total Hg and MMHg were significantly correlated, but no significant correlations could be found between the Hg and OC levels.     

A simple method for simultaneous determination of some organic liquids in in-process materials and effluents produced in the manufacture of amoxicillin and ampicillin

A simple GC method for simultaneous determination of pivaloylchloride, methylacetoacetate, ethylacetoacetate and 2-ethylhexanoic acid in the presence of each other has been developed using glass column packed with 1% Silicone OV-17 on Gaschrom Q 100-120 mesh with temperature programming. Various performance parameters including precision, linearity and limit of detection have been evaluated. The method was found to be suitable for the analysis of these chemicals in in-process materials and effluents associated with the manufacture of amoxicillin and ampicillin. The run time was less than 15 min. The method has been successfully applied to determine the level of these hazardous organic liquids in real time samples.     

Monitoring results for organochlorine pesticides in soil and water from selected obsolete pesticide stores in Pakistan

Seasonal changes in micromineral and macromineral concentrations in tissues of shrimp (Parapenaus longirostris) from Marmara Sea were measured for a 1-year period by using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer. The contents of investigated minerals in shrimp were found to be in the range of 0.374–0.716 mg/kg for Hg, 0.526–1.286 mg/kg for Se, 0.007–0.098 mg/kg for Cd, 0.197–0.230 mg/kg for Pb, 5.194–7.600 mg/kg for Cu, 11.090–17.707 mg/kg for Zn, 22.128–38.850 mg/kg for Al, 61.769–88.437 mg/kg for Fe, 0.262–0.368 mg/kg for As, 0.081–0.249 mg/kg for Co, 0.850–1.459 mg/kg for Mn, 0.316–0.507 mg/kg for Ni, 0.032–0.107 mg/kg for Sn, 1.262–1.502 mg/kg for Cr, 2,813.770–3,317.819 mg/kg for Na, 3,702.230–4,479.648 mg/kg for K, 495.782–650.280 mg/kg for Mg, 790.407–1,016.112 mg/kg for Ca, 2,685.873–3,657.658 mg/kg for P, and 0.454–0.942 mg/kg for I. The levels of Hg found in autumn were higher than maximum levels proposed by the European legislation.