Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.     

Integrated biological responses of zebrafish (Danio rerio) to analyze water quality in regions under anthropogenic influence

This study analyzed water quality in regions around Patos lagoon (Southern Brazil) that are under anthropogenic pressure. Water samples were collected from five different sites, including one used as a source for human consumption (COR) and others known to be influenced by human activities (IP). Danio rerio (Teleostei, Cyprinidae) organisms were exposed for 24 h to these water samples, plus a control group. It was observed that: (1) reactive oxygen species levels were lower in COR and IP than in the control group; (2) glutamate-cysteine ligase (catalytic subunit) expression was higher in COR than in other sites; (3) exposure to all water samples affected long-term memory (LTM) when compared to control group. Thus, some water samples possess the ability to modulate the antioxidant system and to induce a decline in cognitive functions, as measured by LTM. The obtained results indicate that a combination of variables of different organization level (molecular, biochemical and behavioral) can be employed to analyze water quality in impacted regions.     

Salting-out phenomenon and 1-octanol/water partition coefficient of metalaxyl pesticide

In this paper, we present the effect of inorganic cations such as Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ on the salting-out phenomenon of metalaxyl from pure water to aqueous salt solutions. Moreover the 1-octanol/water partition coefficient in pure water is presented. To accomplish this, aqueous solubility of metalaxyl was determined in pure water, in different salt solution (NaCl, KCl, CaCl₂ and MgCl₂), and at different concentration level ranging from 0.01 to 1.5 M. The 1-octanol/water partition coefficient was determined using the static shake-flask method. Solubility was determined using dynamic saturation method for pure water in the range of 298.15-325.15 K and at 298.15 K for different salt solutions. The solubility value in pure water for studied interval was found constant (m = 3.118 × 10⁻² mol kg⁻¹).Solubility values were used to calculate the standard molar Gibbs free energy of dissolution (Δ_solG°) and transfer (Δ_trG°) at 298.15 K. The values of Δ_trG° from pure to all studied aqueous salt solutions did not exceed 2 kJ mol⁻¹, the value of Δ_solG° of dissolution is 18.5 ±0.72 kJ mol⁻¹. The 1-octanol/water partition coefficient in pure water log K_o/w is equal to 1.69. The obtained results confirm the classification of the neutral metalaxyl as a slightly hydrophobic molecule.     

Transport of chlorinated dioxins and furans in soil columns: modeling pentachlorophenol pole-treating oil influence

Column experiments were conducted to validate a screening model predicting the influence of pentachlorophenol (PCP) pole-treating oil on the vertical migration of its impurities, chlorinated dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs). PCP pole-treating oil (15 mL d⁻¹) and water (20 mL d⁻¹) were added daily to the top of sand and organic soil columns during 35 d. Column soil samples were analyzed to determine concentrations of hydrocarbons and PCDD/Fs at several depths in the columns (0-30 cm) and their evolution in time (7, 14, 21 and 35 d).The model predicted a significant vertical migration of PCDD/Fs due to the presence of oil as a free phase and PCDD/Fs were found in the different column layers at concentrations consistent with model predictions (same order of magnitude). Measured PCDD/Fs concentrations are in total disagreement with literature data and with model prediction in the absence of oil free phase, which implies PCDD/F properties alone cannot be used to predict their fate in the current context: the influence of PCP pole-treating oil must be accounted for to properly explain their migration.     

Substituting missing data in compositional analysis

Multivariate analysis of environmental data sets requires the absence of missing values or their substitution by small values. However, if the data is transformed logarithmically prior to the analysis, this solution cannot be applied because the logarithm of a small value might become an outlier. Several methods for substituting the missing values can be found in the literature although none of them guarantees that no distortion of the structure of the data set is produced. We propose a method for the assessment of these distortions which can be used for deciding whether to retain or not the samples or variables containing missing values and for the investigation of the performance of different substitution techniques. The method analyzes the structure of the distances among samples using Mantel tests. We present an application of the method to PCDD/F data measured in samples of terrestrial moss as part of a biomonitoring study.     

Developmental toxicity of two common corn pesticides to the endangered southern bell frog (Litoria raniformis)

To examine the link between corn agriculture and the observed decline of the endangered southern bell frog (SBF), the effects of two corn crop pesticides on larval growth and development were investigated. Tadpoles were exposed to terbufos sulfone (10 μg/L), a major breakdown product of the insecticide terbufos, and the herbicide atrazine (25 μg/L) individually and as a mixture until the completion of metamorphosis. Atrazine did not interact synergistically with terbufos sulfone or result in significant effects on growth and development alone, although there was some indication of accelerated metamorphosis in the pilot study. Terbufos sulfone alone and as a mixture (terbufos/atrazine) significantly slowed larval development and ultimately delayed metamorphosis. The observed developmental effects from an environmentally relevant concentration of terbufos sulfone indicates a risk posed by this persistent degradation product to the endangered SBF, which breeds and develops in the rice bays adjacent to corn fields treated with pesticides.     

Assessment of organochlorine pesticide residues in Atlantic Rain Forest fragments, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

A superficial water quality survey in a watershed of the Paraíba do Sul River, the main water supply for the most populated cities of southeastern Brazil, was held in order to assess the impact of the expansion of agricultural activity in the near border of the Atlantic Rain Forest. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of priority organochlorine pollutants in soils and superficial waters of Atlantic rainforest fragments in Teresópolis, Rio de Janeiro State. Soil sample preparations were compared by using ultrasound, microwave assisted extraction and Soxhlet extraction. Recoveries of matrix spiked samples ranged from 70 to 130%. Analysis of a certified soil material showed recoveries ranging from 71 to 234%. Although low concentrations of organochlorine residues were found in water and soil samples, this area is of environmental importance and concern, thus demanding a monitoring program of its compartments.     

Engineered nanomaterials in rivers--exposure scenarios for Switzerland at high spatial and temporal resolution

Probabilistic material flow analysis and graph theory were combined to calculate predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) in Swiss rivers: 543 river sections were used to assess the geographical variability of nano-TiO₂, nano-ZnO and nano-Ag, and flow measurements over a 20-year period at 21 locations served to evaluate temporal variation. A conservative scenario assuming no ENM removal and an optimistic scenario covering complete ENM transformation/deposition were considered. ENM concentrations varied by a factor 5 due to uncertain ENM emissions (15%-85% quantiles of ENM emissions) and up to a factor of 10 due to temporal river flow variations (15%-85% quantiles of flow). The results indicate highly variable local PECs and a location- and time-dependent risk evaluation. Nano-TiO₂ median PECs ranged from 11 to 1′623 ng L⁻¹ (conservative scenario) and from 2 to 1′618 ng L⁻¹ (optimistic scenario). The equivalent values for nano-ZnO and nano-Ag were by factors of 14 and 240 smaller.