Estimating the risk of a fetal autosomal trisomy at mid-trimester using maternal serum alpha fetoprotein and age: A retrospective study of 142 pregnancies

Risks appropriate for mid-trimester prenatal screening for autosomal trisomies have been estimated from a combination of maternal age and maternal serum (MS) alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 16–20 weeks gestation. Published data on the frequency of Down's syndrome births relative to maternal age were modified to include the additional age-related frequency of trisomy 18 and trisomy 13 cases to provide an overall risk for an autosomal trisomy at midtrimester. MSAFP results from a retrospective study of 142 affected (114 trisomy 21, 19 trisomy 18, and 9 trisomy 13)and 113 000 unaffected pregnancies were converted to multiples of the appropriate gestational median (MOM). The AFP levels in the autosomal trisomy pregnancies were found to be significantly reduced at 0.72 MOM of the unaffected pregnancies. Risks (likelihood ratios) were derived from the overlapping log Gaussian distributions for affected and unaffected pregnancies and combined with maternal age risks to give the overall odds of an affected pregnancy. A mid-trimester cut-off risk of 1:280 gave an estimated 37 per cent detection rate for autosomal trisomies in the west of Scotland population for a follow-up (false-positive) rate of 6.6 per cent. These figures compare with a 30 per cent detection and 6.7 per cent false-positive rate if age 35 years and over is used as the sole criterion for selection of at-risk pregnancies.     

MATERNAL SERUM ALPHA-FETOPROTEIN SCREENING FOR OPEN NEURAL TUBE DEFECTS IN TWIN PREGNANCIES

Data on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 13–24 weeks' gestation in 46 twin pregnancies with open neural tube defects (22 with anencephaly, 24 with open spina bifida) and 169 unaffected twins were used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates associated with different cut-off levels. Using the conventional cut-off level of 2·5 multiples of the median (MoM) for unaffected singleton pregnancies of the same gestation and laboratory, the detection rate in twins was 99 per cent for anencephaly and 89 per cent for open spina bifida, with a false-positive rate of 30 per cent. Using a 5·0 MoM cut-off level to maintain a similar false-positive rate to that found among singleton pregnancies at 16–18 weeks' gestation (about 3 per cent), the detection rate was 83 per cent for anencephaly and 39 per cent for open spina bifida. Estimates are provided of the odds of having an affected twin pregnancy given a positive AFP result as well as the odds for individual women with a raised AFP level.     

Prenatal diagnosis of campomelic dysplasia by ultrasonography

Consanguineous partners had a boy with campomelic dysplasia who died of increasing respiratory distress soon after birth. The next pregnancy was monitored frequently by ultrasonography and a healthy male infant was born at term. During a further pregnancy, ultrasonography suggested campomelic dysplasia in the 16th week of gestation. This was confirmed in the 18th week. The pregnancy was terminated and the fetus showed the typical radiological, anatomical and histological findings.     

Is maternal alpha-fetoprotein screening still of value in a low-risk area for neural tube defects?

Estimation of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was used as a screening method for the detection of neural tube defects (NTDs) in 6344 women over three years. Of 88 (1.4 per cent) who had one or more serum AFP levels equal to, or greater than, 2.5 multiples of the median (MoM) for the relevant gestational age, 43 (0.68 per cent) underwent amniocentesis. There were eight NTDs. Four of these were screened by serum AFP, and all cases of spina bifida had serum AFP levels greater than 3.0 MoM, including one small open defect which was not seen on ultrasound. The other four cases of NTD, which were not screened, were identified by ultrasound. Of 64 singleton pregnancies 32 (50 per cent) had serum AFP levels between 2.5 and 3.0 MoM, and low birthweight (⪕2500 g) occurred in 29 per cent. Because of improvements in ultrasound techniques and the apparent falling incidence of NTD, the role of serum AFP as the primary screening procedure should be regularly reviewed. Effective screening is dependent on mothers booking early.     

The safety of fetoscopy: (I). Effect of umbilical vessel puncture on the fetal heart rate and cord histology

The fetal heart rate (FHR) was continuously monitored during 42 umbilical vessel punctures performed at the placental insertion of the cord in 24 diagnostic fetoscopies in which pure fetal blood was obtained. In only one patient did a deceleration first appear during puncture and aspiration of fetal blood. In two patients decelerations preceded fetoscopy and in two others they began during the fetoscopy but before puncture of an umbilical vessel. In 19 patients, the FHR did not change at all during the procedure. Fetal haemorrhage after sampling was either absent or minimal. Six pregnancies were terminated because a positive diagnosis had been made and 18 healthy babies were born. Umbilical cords were examined after 7 terminations of pregnancy and after 6 deliveries. In the former group the puncture could just be seen with the naked eye and the needle track was demonstrated histologically in 6. No traces of the puncture or other abnormalities were found in the cords after delivery. Fetal blood sampling from umbilical cord vessels, particularly at the placental insertion of the cord, is the technique of choice since pure fetal blood can be obtained without increasing the risk of fetoscopy.     

Maternal age-specific risks for trisomies at 9—14 weeks' gestation

This study provides data on the incidence of fetal trisomies 21, 18, and 13 at 9–14 weeks' gestation in women aged 35–45 years and estimates of maternal age-specific risks in women aged 20–45 years. Our data from 5814 singleton pregnancies undergoing first-trimester karyotyping for the sole indication of maternal age ⩾ 35 years were combined with those from two previous reports and the incidence of the trisomies was calculated from a total of 15 793 pregnancies. Comparison of incidences at 9–14 weeks' gestation with published data at 15–20 weeks' gestation and in livebirths demonstrated that at birth the maternal age-specific incidence of trisomy 21 is 33 per cent lower than at 15–20 weeks' gestation and 54 per cent lower than at 9–14 weeks' gestation. Furthermore, the relative frequency of trisomies 18 and 13 decreases from 30 per cent at 9–14 weeks to 22 per cent at 15–20 weeks and 14 per cent at birth.     

MSAFP levels and oesophageal atresia

This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) levels and oesophageal atresia (OA). OA occurred in 16 fetuses of mothers who had an MSAFP test in the study interval. The multiple of the median (MOM) value for MSAFP averaged 1·54 ± 0·65 (range 0·5–2·9 MOM), which was significantly higher than the value seen in controls. The median MOM was 1·35. Using a cut-off of 2·5 MOM, the sensitivity of MSAFP for detecting OA was 19 per cent. Although OA should be considered in the differential diagnosis of an elevated MSAFP level, MSAFP cannot be considered an appropriate screening test for OA given the low sensitivity.     

Expanding multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome to include Edward'S syndrome

Information on maternal age and maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels was used to investigate retrospectively the effect of estimating Edward's syndrome risk in women having multi-marker screening for Down's syndrome. The screened population comprised 15 pregnancies affected by Edward's syndrome, 15 with Down's syndrome and 5472 unaffected pregnancies. The use of all three markers to estimate Edward's syndrome risk would have led to the detection of 10–12 (67–80 per cent) cases with a false-positive rate of 0.3–0.6 per cent depending on the risk cut-off. A further case would have been detected as a result of screening for Down's syndrome alone. Similar results were obtained when the Edward's syndrome risk was based on uE₃ and hCG only. These data suggest that extending Down's syndrome screening to include Edward's syndrome risk will yield a high detection rate with only a small increase in the false-positive rate.     

Determinants of parental decisions to abort for chromosome abnormalities

Parental decisions concerning the continuation of pregnancy following prenatal detection of abnormal chromosomes were evaluated for 80 patients whose diagnosis and prenatal counselling were performed in our centre. Twenty-two anomalies were diagnosed by chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and 58 by amniocentesis. The severity of the chromosome anomaly and associated ultrasound findings in the first vs. second trimester were correlated with patients' decisions. No difference was found in the likelihood of parental decisions to interrupt or continue a pregnancy between CVS and amniocentesis for either the‘severe’ or the‘questionable’ group of chromosome anomalies. Ninety-three per cent of patients with severe prognosis and 27 per cent with questionable prognosis opted for pregnancy termination (p <0·0001). The association of ultrasound anomalies and termination was highly significant (p< 0·001). The severity of the chromosome anomaly, and, to a lesser extent, the visualization of anomalies on ultrasound were the major determinants of parental decisions to terminate the pregnancy. The diagnosis of an anomaly in the first trimester was no more likely ito lead to a termination of pregnancy than in the second trimester.