An assessment of long term ecosystem research activities across European socio-ecological gradients

Integration of European long term ecosystem research (LTER) would provide important support for the management of the pan-European environment and ecosystems, as well as international policy commitments. This does require appropriate coverage of Europe and standardised frameworks and research methods between countries. Emerging interest in socio-ecological systems prompted the present assessment of the distribution of LTER activities across European socio-ecological gradients. This paper presents a European stratification with a 1 km² resolution, delineating 48 broad socio-ecological regions. The dataset is based on an existing biogeophysical stratification constructed using multivariate clustering of mainly climatic variables and a newly developed socio-economic stratification based on an economic density indicator. The coverage of European LTER facilities across the socio-ecological gradients is tested using this dataset. The analysis shows two strong biases in the present LTER effort. Firstly, urban and disturbed regions are consistently under-represented, illustrating a bias for traditional ecological research away from human activity. Secondly, the Mediterranean, for which some of the most extreme global change impacts are projected, is receiving comparatively little attention. Both findings can help guide future investment in the European LTER network – and especially in a Long Term Socio-Ecological Research (LTSER) component– to provide a more balanced coverage. This will provide better scientific understanding of pan-European environmental concerns and support the management of natural resources and international policy commitments in the European Union.     

Soil organic carbon sequestration in cotton production systems of the southeastern United States: a review

Past agricultural management practices have contributed to the loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) and emission of greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide). Fortunately, however, conservation-oriented agricultural management systems can be, and have been, developed to sequester SOC, improve soil quality, and increase crop productivity. Our objectives were to (i) review literature related to SOC sequestration in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) production systems, (ii) recommend best management practices to sequester SOC, and (iii) outline the current political scenario and future probabilities for cotton producers to benefit from SOC sequestration. From a review of 20 studies in the region, SOC increased with no tillage compared with conventional tillage by 0.48 +/- 0.56 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (H(0): no change, p < 0.001). More diverse rotations of cotton with high-residue-producing crops such as corn (Zea mays L.) and small grains would sequester greater quantities of SOC than continuous cotton. No-tillage cropping with a cover crop sequestered 0.67 +/- 0.63 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), while that of no-tillage cropping without a cover crop sequestered 0.34 +/- 47 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (mean comparison, p = 0.04). Current government incentive programs recommend agricultural practices that would contribute to SOC sequestration. Participation in the Conservation Security Program could lead to government payments of up to Dollars 20 ha(-1). Current open-market trading of C credits would appear to yield less than Dollars 3 ha(-1), although prices would greatly increase should a government policy to limit greenhouse gas emissions be mandated.     

AN EVALUATION OF WEEKLY AND MONTHLY TIME SERIES FORECASTS OF MUNICIPAL WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data.     

Nitrate and sediment fluxes from a California rangeland watershed

Long-term water quality records for assessing natural variability, impact of management, and that guide regulatory processes to safeguard water resources are rare for California oak woodland rangelands. This study presents a 20-yr record (1981-2000) of nitrate-nitrogen (NO(3)-N) and suspended sediment export from a typical, grazed oak woodland watershed (103 ha) in the northern Sierra Nevada foothills of California. Mean annual precipitation over the 20-yr period was 734 mm yr(-1) (range 366-1205 mm yr(-1)). Mean annual stream flow was 353 mm y(-1) (range 87-848 mm yr(-1)). Average annual stream flow was 48.1 +/- 16% of precipitation. Mean annual NO(3)-N export was 1.6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (range 0.18-3.6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Annual NO(3)-N export significantly (P < 0.05) increased with increasing annual stream flow and precipitation. Mean daily NO(3)-N export was 0.004 kg ha(-1) d(-1) (range 10(-5) to 0.55 kg ha(-1) d(-1)). Mean annual suspended sediment export was 198 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (range 23-479 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)). There was a positive relationship (P < 0.05) between annual suspended sediment export, annual stream flow and precipitation. Mean daily suspended sediment export was 0.54 kg ha(-1) d(-1) (range 10(-4) to 155 kg ha(-1) d(-1)). Virtually no sediment was exported during the dry season. The large variation in daily and annual fluxes highlights the necessity of using long-term records to establish quantitative water quality targets for rangelands and demonstrates the difficulty of designing a water quality monitoring program for these ecosystems.