Modelling and assessment of South African elephant Loxodonta africana population persistence

The use of a quantitative population growth model to investigate the persistence of South African elephant populations is explored. The model provides quantitative assessments of population persistence and confidence intervals for estimated parameters based purely on population size estimates. The analysis supports the view that most of the larger populations in the region are secure. This view is further supported by a lack of density dependent effects in most of the recovering populations and the high population rates of increase observed. This predominantly positive prognosis is in contrast with that emerging from most of the rest of the African continent where the populations are under greater threat because of habitat restriction and direct human conflict. This preliminary assessment of elephant population persistence suggests that “viable” populations may lie between 400 and 6000 individuals. Although not inconsistent with information-greedy genetic and demographic models, the relationship between population growth versus genetic and demographic models should be further investigated. The implementation of a metapopulation management strategy towards these smaller populations is advocated. In addition, as all of the populations included in this analysis have been afforded some degree of protection since the 1920s, continued protection would be a prerequisite for their continued survival.     

Transport of atmospheric fine particulate matter: part 2--findings from recent field programs on the intraurban variability in fine particulate matter

Air quality field data, collected as part of the fine particulate matter Supersites Program and other field measurements programs, have been used to assess the degree of intraurban variability for various physical and chemical properties of ambient fine particulate matter. Spatial patterns vary from nearly homogeneous to quite heterogeneous, depending on the city, parameter of interest, and the approach or method used to define spatial variability. Secondary formation, which is often regional in nature, drives fine particulate matter mass and the relevant chemical components toward high intraurban spatial homogeneity. Those particulate matter components that are dominated by primary emissions within the urban area, such as black carbon and several trace elements, tend to exhibit greater spatial heterogeneity. A variety of study designs and data analysis approaches have been used to characterize intraurban variability. High temporal correlation does not imply spatial homogeneity. For example, there can be high temporal correlation but with spatial heterogeneity manifested as smooth spatial gradients, often emanating from areas of high emissions such as the urban core or industrial zones.     

Major and trace elements of selected pedons in the USA

Few studies of soil geochemistry over large geographic areas exist, especially studies encompassing data from major pedogenic horizons that evaluate both native concentrations of elements and anthropogenically contaminated soils. In this study, pedons (n = 486) were analyzed for trace (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn) and major (Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na, P, Si, Ti, Zr) elements, as well as other soil properties. The objectives were to (i) determine the concentration range of selected elements in a variety of U.S. soils with and without known anthropogenic additions, (ii) illustrate the association of elemental source and content by assessing trace elemental content for several selected pedons, and (iii) evaluate relationships among and between elements and other soil properties. Trace element concentrations in the non-anthropogenic dataset (NAD) were in the order Mn > (Zn, Cr, Ni, Cu) > (Pb, Co) > (Cd, Hg), with greatest mean total concentrations for the Andisol order. Geometric means by horizon indicate that trace elements are concentrated in surface and/or B horizons over C horizons. Median values for trace elements are significantly higher in surface horizons of the anthropogenic dataset (AD) over the NAD. Total Al, Fe, cation exchange capacity (CEC), organic C, pH, and clay exhibit significant correlations (0.56, 0.74, 0.50, 0.31, 0.16, and 0.30, respectively) with total trace element concentrations of all horizons of the NAD. Manganese shows the best inter-element correlation (0.33) with these associated total concentrations. Total Fe has one of the strongest relationships, explaining 55 and 30% of the variation in total trace element concentrations for all horizons in the NAD and AD, respectively.     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

THE VULNERABILITY OF WETLANDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: The vulnerability of wetlands to changes in climate depends on their position within hydrologic landscapes. Hydrologic landscapes are defined by the flow characteristics of ground water and surface water and by the interaction of atmospheric water, surface water, and ground water for any given locality or region. Six general hydrologic landscapes are defined; mountainous, plateau and high plain, broad basins of interior drainage, riverine, flat coastal, and hummocky glacial and dune. Assessment of these landscapes indicate that the vulnerability of all wetlands to climate change fall between two extremes: those dependent primarily on precipitation for their water supply are highly vulnerable, and those dependent primarily on discharge from regional ground water flow systems are the least vulnerable, because of the great buffering capacity of large ground water flow systems to climate change.     

Spatiotemporal variability of wet atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina

Excessive nitrogen (N) loading to N-sensitive waters such as the Neuse River estuary (North Carolina) has been shown to promote changes in microbial and algal community composition and function (harmful algal blooms), hypoxia and anoxia, and fish kills. Previous studies have estimated that wet atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (WAD-N), as deposition of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN: NO3-, NH3/NH4+) and dissolved organic nitrogen, may contribute at least 15% of the total externally supplied or "new" N flux to the coastal waters of North Carolina. In a 3-yr study from June 1996 to June 1999, we calculated the weekly wet deposition of inorganic and organic N at eleven sites on a northwest-southeast transect in the watershed. The annual mean total (wet DIN + wet organics) WAD-N flux for the Neuse River watershed was calculated to be 956 mg N/m2/yr (15026 Mg N/yr). Seasonally, the spring (March-May) and summer (June-August) months contain the highest total weekly N deposition; this pattern appears to be driven by N concentration in precipitation. There is also spatial variability in WAD-N deposition; in general, the upper portion of the watershed receives the lowest annual deposition and the middle portion of the watershed receives the highest deposition. Based on a range of watershed N retention and in-stream riverine processing values, we estimate that this flux contributes approximately 24% of the total "new" N flux to the estuary.     

Reverse logistics in the Brazilian construction industry

In Brazil most Construction and Demolition Waste (C&D waste) is not recycled. This situation is expected to change significantly, since new federal regulations oblige municipalities to create and implement sustainable C&D waste management plans which assign an important role to recycling activities. The recycling organizational network and its flows and components are fundamental to C&D waste recycling feasibility. Organizational networks, flows and components involve reverse logistics. The aim of this work is to introduce the concepts of reverse logistics and reverse distribution channel networks and to study the Brazilian C&D waste case.     

Managing erosion and water quality in agricultural watersheds by small detention ponds

Terrace-contouring systems with on-site water detention cannot be installed in areas of complex topography, small parceling and multi-blade moldboard plow use. However, field borders at the downslope end may be raised at the deepest part where runoff overtops to create detention ponds, which can be drained by subsurface tile outlets and act similar to terrace-contouring systems. Four of such detention ponds were monitored over 8 years. Monitored effects included the prevention of linear erosion down slope, the sediment trapping from upslope, the enrichment of major nutrients in the trapped and delivered sediments, the amount of runoff retained temporarily, the amount of runoff reduced by infiltration, the decrease in peak runoff rate and the decrease in peak concentrations of agrochemicals due to the mixing of different volumes of water within the detention ponds. The detention ponds had a volume of 30–260 m³ ha⁻¹ and trapped 54–85% of the incoming sediment, which was insignificantly to slightly depleted (5–25%) in organic carbon, phosphorus, nitrogen and clay as compared to the eroding topsoil, while the delivered sediment was strongly enriched (+70–270%) but part of this enrichment already resulted from the enrichment of soil loss. The detention ponds temporarily stored 200–500 m³ of runoff. A failure was never experienced. Due to the siltation of the pond bottom, the short filled time (1–5 days) and the small water covered area, infiltration and evaporation reduced runoff by less than 10% for large events. Peak runoff during heavy rains was lowered by a factor of three. Peak concentrations of agrochemicals (Terbutylazin) were lowered by a factor of two. The detention ponds created by raising the downslope field borders at the pour point efficiently reduced adverse erosion effects downslope the eroding site. They are cheap and can easily be created with on-farm machinery. Their efficiency is improved where they are combined with an on-site erosion control like mulch tillage because sediment and runoff input are reduced. Ponds had to be dredged only after the first year when on-site erosion control was not fully effective.