Forecasting the effects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater and surface waters

We used the interdisciplinary model network REGFLUD to predict the actual mean nitrate concentration in percolation water at the scale of the Weser river basin (Germany) using an area differentiated (100 m × 100 m) approach.REGFLUD combines the agro-economic model RAUMIS for estimating nitrogen surpluses and the hydrological models GROWA/DENUZ for assessing the nitrate leaching from the soil.For areas showing predicted nitrate concentrations in percolation water above the European Union (EU) groundwater quality standard of 50 mg NO 3 -N/L,effective agri-environmental reduction measures need to be derived and implemented to improve groundwater and surface water quality by 2015.The effects of already implemented agricultural policy are quantified by a baseline scenario projecting the N-surpluses from agricultural sector to 2015.The REGFLUD model is used to estimate the effects of this scenario concerning groundwater and surface water pollution by nitrate.From the results of the model analysis the needs for additional measures can be derived in terms of required additional N-surplus reduction and in terms of regional prioritization of measures.Research work will therefore directly support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union in the Weser basin.     

Forecasting the e ects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater and surface waters

We used the interdisciplinary model network REGFLUD to predict the actual mean nitrate concentration in percolation water at the scale of the Weser river basin (Germany) using an area di erentiated (100 m 100 m) approach. REGFLUD combines the agro-economic model RAUMIS for estimating nitrogen surpluses and the hydrological models GROWA/DENUZ for assessing the nitrate leaching from the soil. For areas showing predicted nitrate concentrations in percolation water above the European Union (EU) groundwater quality standard of 50 mg NO3-N/L, e ective agri-environmental reduction measures need to be derived and implemented to improve groundwater and surface water quality by 2015. The e ects of already implemented agricultural policy are quantified by a baseline scenario projecting the N-surpluses from agricultural sector to 2015. The REGFLUD model is used to estimate the e ects of this scenario concerning groundwater and surface water pollution by nitrate. From the results of the model analysis the needs for additional measures can be derived in terms of required additional N-surplus reduction and in terms of regional prioritization of measures. Research work will therefore directly support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union in the Weser basin.     

A qualitative field method for monitoring pesticides in the edge-of-field runoff

A field method is described, which allows the qualitative estimation of pesticide contamination in the edgeof-field runoff. The method employs cheap and easy-to-use runoff sampling bottles, which were installed in an agricultural stream catchment over a period of three growing seasons. During this time 18 runoff events were detected, in nine of which insecticide contamination was measured (maximum concentrations: lindane 0.7 μg l⁻¹ and 12.7 μg kg⁻¹, parathion 20 μg l⁻¹ and 728 μg kg⁻, fenvalerate 18.4 μg 1-1 and 924 μg kg⁻¹). These insecticides were detected mainly as particle-bound chemicals. On about 80 % of the occasions the presence or absence of runoff measured in the field was in agreement with a simulation of runoff presence or absence using the runoff model KINEROS.     

Organic residue decomposition: The minicontainer-system a multifunctional tool in decomposition studies

The Minicontainer-test, first described by Eisenbeis (1993), was designed to study the kinetics of organic residue decomposition at a microsite level. It is derived from the litterbag technique and consists of polyethylene minicontainers (volume about 1.5 cm³) filled with a test substrate (litter, straw, cellulose, etc.). The minicontainers (MCs) are closed at either end with plastic gauze discs of variable mesh size (e.g. 20 μm, 250 μm, 500 μm or 2 mm). A definite number of such units are inserted into PVC-bars, which can be implanted into the soil horizontally or vertically, or be exposed on the soil surface horizontally. The bars are very stable and can be exposed in different environments for months to years. If required, the bars can be removed temporarily and stored, e.g. during soil cultivation. Should fresh litter be used, two phases of decomposition can be distinguished: a fast initial phase, which can be mainly related to the effect of leaching, and a second slow phase depending mainly on the activity of soil organisms and litter quality. Several questions can be addressed to investigations using MCs, e.g. 1) parts of the soil fauna which are involved in decomposition (nematodes, microarthropods, and smaller specimens of the macrofauna, e.g. enchytraeidae, diplopods and dipteran larvae) can be extracted from the litter substrate using a miniscale high gradient extractor, 2) the organic mass loss of litter can be determined, 3) microbial biomass (C_mic, N_mic) can be assessed by fumigation extraction and 4) microbial activity (respiration) in the test substrate can also be assessed by use of standardised methods. Compared to litterbag studies, the larger number of small replicate units improves the statistical evaluation. Until today the Minicontainer-test has been applied in forestry and agriculture, e.g. studying the effects of liming, soil restoration and the application of insecticides, e.g. Diflubenzuron (Dimilin) and Btk (Bacillus thuringiensis var.kurstaki).     

Monitoring Diffuse Impacts: Australian Tourism Developments

/ The scientific quality of monitoring for diffuse environmental impacts has rarely been quantified. This paper presents an analysis of all formal environmental monitoring programs for Australian tourism developments over a 15-year period from 1980 to 1995. The tourism sector provides a good test bed for this study because tourism developments are (1) often adjacent to or even within conservation reserves and other relatively undisturbed natural environments, and (2) often clustered, with resulting cumulative impacts that require detection at an early stage. Here we analyze the precision and reliability with which monitoring programs as actually implemented can detect diffuse environmental impacts against natural variation. Of 175 Australian tourism developments subject to EIA from 1980 to 1993 inclusive, only 13 were subject to formal monitoring. Only 44 individual parameters, in total, were monitored for all these developments together. No baseline monitoring was conducted for nine of the 44 parameters. For the remaining 35, only one was monitored for a full year. Before, after, control, impact, paired sampling (BACIP) monitoring designs were used for 24 of the 44 parameters, and power analysis in 10. The scientific quality of monitoring was significantly better for developments subject to control by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA). The key factor appears to be the way in which GBRMPA uses external referees and manages external consultants. The GBRMPA model merits wider adoption.     

Seed terminal velocity, wind turbulence, and demography drive the spread of an invasive tree in an analytical model

Little is known about the relative importance of mechanistic drivers of plant spread, particularly when long-distance dispersal (LDD) events occur. Most methods to date approach LDD phenomenologically, and all mechanistic models, with one exception, have been implemented through simulation. Furthermore, the few recent mechanistically derived spread models have examined the relative role of different dispersal parameters using simulations, and a formal analytical approach has not yet been implemented. Here we incorporate an analytical mechanistic wind dispersal model (WALD) into a demographic matrix model within an analytical integrodifference equation spread model. We carry out analytical perturbation analysis on the combined model to determine the relative effects of dispersal and demographic traits and wind statistics on the spread of an invasive tree. Models are parameterized using data collected in situ and tested using independent data on historical spread. Predicted spread rates and direction match well the two historical phases of observed spread. Seed terminal velocity has the greatest potential influence on spread rate, and three wind properties (turbulence coefficient, mean horizontal wind speed, and standard deviation of vertical wind speed) are also important. Fecundity has marginal importance for spread rate, but juvenile survival and establishment are consistently important. This coupled empirical/theoretical framework enables prediction of plant spread rate and direction using fundamental dispersal and demographic parameters and identifies the traits and environmental conditions that facilitate spread. The development of an analytical perturbation analysis for a mechanistic spread model will enable multispecies comparative studies to be easily implemented in the future.     

Confidence limits on one-stage model parameters in benchmark risk assessment

In modern environmental risk analysis, inferences are often desired on those low dose levels at which a fixed benchmark risk is achieved. In this paper, we study the use of confidence limits on parameters from a simple one-stage model of risk historically popular in benchmark analysis with quantal data. Based on these confidence bounds, we present methods for deriving upper confidence limits on extra risk and lower bounds on the benchmark dose. The methods are seen to extend automatically to the case where simultaneous inferences are desired at multiple doses. Monte Carlo evaluations explore characteristics of the parameter estimates and the confidence limits under this setting.

Challenges of simulating complex environmental systems at the landscape scale: A controversial dialogue between two cups of espresso

With the advancement of computational systems and the development of model integration concepts, complexity of environmental model systems increased. In contrast to that, theory and knowledge about > environmental systems as well as the capability for environmental systems analyses remained, to a large extent, unchanged. As a consequence, model conceptualization, data gathering, and validation, have faced new challenges that hardly can be tackled by modellers alone. In this discourse-like review, we argue that modelling with reliable simulations of human-environmental interactions necessitate linking modelling and simulation research much stronger to science fields such as landscape ecology, community ecology, eco-hydrology, etc. It thus becomes more and more important to identify the adequate degree of complexity in environmental models (which is not only a technical or methodological question), to ensure data availability, and to test model performance. Even equally important, providing problem specific answers to environmental problems using simulation tools requires addressing end-user and stakeholder requirements during early stages of problem development. In doing so, we avoid modelling and simulation as an end of its own.     

Determination of 10 particle-associated multiclass polar and semi-polar pesticides from small streams using accelerated solvent extraction

A new analytical method using accelerated solvent extraction was developed for the determination of 10 particle-associated polar and semipolar pesticides. In addition, six deuterated analogues of the target compounds were evaluated as internal standards. The method yielded acceptable accuracy (73–103% recovery) and precision (<25% relative standard deviation) for eight compounds. Using size exclusion chromatography (SEC) as cleanup step resulted in higher recoveries compared to solid phase extraction (SPE) cleanup.

Deuterated standards with 10 or more deuterium atoms performed well as internal standards concerning similar recovery and correlation with the target analytes.

The method was employed to extract particle-associated pesticides from 16 streams located in an area with intense agriculture in France. Acetochlor, pirimicarb, tebuconazole, fenpropidin, -endosulfan and chlorfenvinphos were detected at concentrations up to 1 mg kg⁻¹ dry weight. A comparison with aquatic toxicity data indicated potential risk to the benthic fauna exposed to these concentrations of pirimicarb, -endosulfan and chlorfenvinphos.

We suggest that the method presented here be used for the extraction and quantitation of particle-associated polar pesticides.     

The longitudinal dependence of black carbon concentration on traffic volume in an urban environment

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of traffic volume on ambient black carbon (BC) concentration in an inner-city neighborhood "hot spot" while accounting for modifying effects of weather and time. Continuous monitoring was conducted for 12 months at the Baltimore Traffic Study site surrounded by major urban streets that together carry over 150,000 vehicles per day. Outdoor BC concentration was measured with an Aethalometer; vehicles were counted pneumatically on two nearby streets. Meteorological data were also obtained. Missing data were imputed and all data were normalized to a 5-min observational interval (n = 105,120). Time-series modeling accounted for autoregressively (AR) correlated errors. This study found that outdoor BC was positively correlated at a statistically significant level with neighborhood-level vehicle counts, which contributed at a rate of 66 +/- 10 (SE) ng/m3 per 100 vehicles every 5 min. Winds from the SW-S-SE quarter were associated with the greatest increases in BC (376-612 ng/m3). These winds would have entrained BC from Baltimore's densely trafficked central business district, as well as a nearby interstate highway. The strong influence of wind direction implicates atmospheric transport processes in determining BC exposure. Dew point, mixing height, wind speed, season, and workday were also statistically significant predictors. Background exposure to BC was estimated to be 905 ng/m3. The optimal, statistically significant representation of BC's autocorrelation was AR([1:6]) x 288 x 2016, where the short-term AR factor (lags 1-6) indicated that BC concentrations are correlated for up to 30 min, and the AR factors for lags 288 and 2016 indicate longer-term autocorrelations at diurnal and weekly cycles, respectively. It was concluded that local exposure to BC from mobile sources is substantially modified by meteorological and temporal conditions, including atmospheric transport processes. BC concentration also demonstrates statistically significant autocorrelation at several time scales.