A Bayesian network analysis of workplace accidents caused by falls from a height

This article analyses, using Bayesian networks, the circumstances surrounding workplace tasks performed using auxiliary equipment (ladders, scaffolding, etc.) that may result in falls. The information source was a survey of employees working at a height. We were able to determine the usefulness of this approach – innovative in the accident research field – in identifying the causes that have the greatest bearing on accidents involving auxiliary equipment: in these cases, the adoption of incorrect postures during work and a worker’s inadequate knowledge of safety regulations. Likewise, the duration of tasks was also associated with both these variables, and therefore, with the accident rate. Bayesian networks also enable dependency relationships to be established between the different causes of accidents. This information – which is not usually furnished by conventional statistical methods applied in the field of labour risk prevention – allow a causality model to be defined for workplace accidents in a more realistic way. With this statistic tool, the expert is also provided with useful information that can be input to a management model for labour risk prevention.     

Factors influencing farmers’ decisions on nitrogen fertilizer application in the Liangzihu Lake basin,Central China

Overuse of nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture activities has caused severe water pollution in China. The lack of data at producer level hampers decision makers in the development and implementation of efficient policies to curb excessive N-fertilizer use. In a survey of 300 farm households in the Liangzihu Lake basin, we identified factors associated with farmers’ decisions on N-fertilizer use and application rate. Household survey and multiple linear regression models indicate that the average application rate in the study region is 229 kg N ha^?1, which exceeds the recommended rate for maximum profit for cereal crops (maize, wheat, and rice) in China of 150–180 kg N ha^?1. High N-application rates are associated with low farmland productivity (coefficient = ?15.66, p = 0.02), a high share of off-farm income (coefficient = 27.14, p = 0.003), and a low education level of the household head (coefficient = ?10.83, p = 0.039). Neither physical infrastructure nor access to input markets appears to be related to N-application rates. It may be concluded that excessive use of N in agriculture of Central China is mainly a problem of insufficient awareness and high share of off-farm income.     

PCDD/F levels in the neighbourhood of a municipal solid waste incinerator after introduction of technical improvements in the facility

In 1998 and 1999, the concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) were determined in soil and herbage samples collected in the vicinity of an old municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) (S. Adrià del Besòs, Barcelona, Spain). Just after the 1999 collection, an adaptation to the EU legislation on pollutant emissions from the stack was carried out in this facility. The purpose of the present study was to determine the current concentrations of PCDD/Fs in soil and herbage samples collected in the neighbourhood of the MSWI and to compare these concentrations with those obtained in the 1998 and 1999 surveys. During the period 1998-1999, an increase of 31% (P>.05) was found in the median PCDD/F levels in soils, while a reduction of 40% (P>.05) was observed in the period 1999-2000. Similarly, in the period 1998-1999 an increase of 41% (P>.05) was found in the levels of PCDD/Fs in vegetation, while a 30% decrease (P<.05) was seen in the period 1999-2000. Although after introduction of the technical improvements in the MSWI a notable reduction in the levels of PCDD/Fs in soil and vegetation has been noted, the median decreases have not been as great as it could be expected according to the very pronounced reductions in PCDD/F emissions from the stack. It indicates that other emission sources of PCDD/Fs also have a notable impact on the area under direct influence of the MSWI.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Effects of 17alpha-ethinylestradiol on the reproduction of the cladoceran species Ceriodaphnia reticulata and Sida crystallina

Single-species tests allow the assessment of chronical effects of endocrine disruptors on organisms under laboratory conditions. In the current study, three-generation tests with Ceriodaphnia reticulata and Sida crystallina were carried out to examine the influence of the synthetic hormone 17alpha-ethinylestradiol (EE) on the reproduction of these cladoceran species. For each species, six different concentrations (10-500 microg/l EE) and two controls were tested with eight replicates for a duration of 4 weeks. The test was initiated by transferring one neonate individual into a test vessel which was incubated under standardized conditions. Every 2 days, the medium was renewed and life history parameters such as survivorship of the adults and juveniles, clutch size, first appearance and number of produced offspring were investigated. Acute toxicity tests showed that C. reticulata (EC50 (24 h) 1814 microg/l) was more sensitive towards the substance compared to S. crystallina (EC50 (24 h) >4100 microg/l). The juvenile phase of S. crystallina was significantly shorter at concentrations above 100 microg/l EE. For C. reticulata, 17alpha-ethinylestradiol caused a higher mortality of the newly hatched juveniles at EE concentrations above 200 microg/l. No effects were found for mortality of adult animals, birth rate, number of juveniles per female and net reproduction rate of S. crystallina and C. reticulata. Thus, sublethal effects on parental generation exposed to EE lead to disturbances in reproduction and to affection of their offspring. Negative consequences for the population dynamic cannot be excluded, e.g. the decrease of a population.     

Europe–Middle East–North Africa cooperation for sustainable electricity and water

This report summarizes the results of two studies of electricity supply for Europe (EU), the Middle East (ME) and North Africa (NA) up to the year 2050. It shows that a transition to competitive, secure and sustainable supply of electricity and water is possible using renewable energy sources, efficiency gains and fossil fuel backup for balancing power. A strong cooperation between the EU and MENA for the market introduction of renewable energy and the interconnection of the electricity grids by high-voltage direct-current transmission are keys to the success and survival of the whole region. However, the necessary measures will take at least two decades to become effective. Therefore, adequate policy and economic frameworks for their realization must be introduced immediately. The importance of sustainable energy for the security of freshwater supplies in MENA is also described.

Spatial identification by satellite imagery of the crop–fallow rotation cycle in northern Laos

In the mountainous regions of northern Laos, shifting cultivation, or slash-and-burn agriculture, is widely practiced. However, the crop–fallow rotation cycle is becoming shorter owing to forest conservation policies and population pressure, causing loss of productivity that deleteriously affects farmers’ livelihoods in the region. To investigate regional land use conditions, we have developed a method of identifying the crop–fallow rotation cycle from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper+ (ETM+) data. We assessed the impact of the identified cycle on plant production measured by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The study site was an area in Luang Prabang Province. Using eight TM and ETM+ images acquired annually from 1995 to 2003, except for 1998, when cloud-free data were not collected, we classified land use in each year as crop or fallow by the presence of vegetation in the late dry season. Conformity with fallow age determined by field investigation was 69.1%. The cultivation frequency from 1995 to 2002 showed that 77,000 ha (17.3% of the study site) had not been used for cropping during the period, but 41,000 ha (9.2%) had been used every year. Of the study site, 129,000 ha (29.1%) was cultivated one or two times, 83,000 ha (18.7%) was three or four times, and 54,000 ha (12.2%) was five or six times. The NDVI of crops in November did not provide sufficient evidence to prove the assumption that a longer fallow period would result in better crop yields. Instead, the regeneration of fallow vegetation was evidenced by the higher NDVI values after longer fallow. More than 8 years would be needed to reach the same NDVI as forest. From the produced maps indicating fallow age and cultivation frequency, we found that areas with high potential for regeneration decreased as cultivation frequency increased. Areas near rivers were intensively used, and fallow length was accordingly short. Low-potential areas were found in the western basin of the Mekong River. This spatial information can be used to detect areas where biomass productivity is at high risk of deteriorating. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Long-term change in drivers of forest cover expansion: an analysis for Switzerland (1850-2000)

Regional Environmental Change - The spatial distribution of forests in Europe represents the legacy of centuries of human land use decisions. Due to the limited availability of historical data,...