Some long term dynamics of predator-prey models with diffusion

This paper analyzes the long term time dynamics of theoretical predator-prey systems in a continuous medium with constant diffusion. It is shown that oscillatory or unstable predator-prey interactions will lead to patchy distributions and that unstable interactions will persist for very long periods of time when diffusion is operating. Some of the problems of sampling and parameter estimation of data from patchy distributions are examined and discussed.     

Computer simulation of barren-ground caribou dynamics

This paper describes a simulation model of a Canadian caribou population. The model was constructed by an interdisciplinary team of field biologists, managers, and systems ecologists. Population dynamics are represented in terms of age structure, with age-dependent survival and fecundity. Biomass dynamics of the major food species are also simulated, and the food dynamics interact with the caribou population through a foraging submodel that explicitly considers snow depth, seasonal migrations, and total area of useable winter habitat. The model was used to examine two hypotheses regarding the abundance of barren-ground caribou. It was shown that there is no reason to suspect that food supply currently limits the population size; instead, hunting pressure appears to be the critical variable. The implications of this finding for population management are discussed.     

Growth Management in the Vancouver Region

The Vancouver Region is widely recognised as one North American jurisdiction where strong growth management plans and policies have been put in place in order to control urban sprawl. While many authors have lauded the region for its good planning intentions, there has been little in the way of assessment of actual performance. This paper attempts to identify some quantitative growth management goals that have been (officially and unofficially) espoused by planning authorities in the region, and to measure these against actual trends. The results are mixed: on the one hand, some key growth management goals adopted by the region are not ambitious compared with existing trends and even these goals are not being met. For instance, the supposedly compact scenario adopted by the region deviates hardly at all from existing growth trends, which regional planners had clearly identified as untenable and requiring drastic change. On the other hand, the region's goal of preserving extensive green areas has been achieved without being watered down during goal formulation or implementation. Whereas these findings may appear contradictory, they are not: conservation in the region has not compromised the potential for growth in the region--at least for the time being. The real test of regional growth management efforts will come in the near future when further expansion meets the 'green wall' on the periphery and NIMBY resistance against densification within existing urban areas. The study suggests that the current structure of regional planning, relying on a partnership between municipal and regional governments, has served the region fairly well in building support for the need for growth management and in elaborating growth management vision. However, there is serious doubt about the ability of this system to set ambitious growth management objectives and to see through the implementation of those objectives in the face of social forces attempting to preserve business-as-usual trends in the region.     

EARLY MORNING CANOPY TEMPERATURES FOR EVALUATING WATER STRESS IN A WHEAT CROP1

ABSTRACT: Several crop water stress indices were examined to determine their potential for use from a space-based system. These indices were compared using data collected over a wheat crop grown under arid environmental conditions. Indices that required concurrent ground-based measurements were less adaptable than the simple difference between canopy temperatures of a field with unknown stress conditions and a similar crop known to be unstressed. The results indicate that it would be feasible to develop space-based crop water stress techniques that would be useful for scheduling irrigations.     

Factors influencing mercury accumulation in three species of forage fish from Caddo Lake, Texas, USA

Most studies that have examined mercury (Hg) contamination of fish have focused on game species feeding near the top of the food web, while studies that examine forage fish that feed near the base of the food web are rare. We conducted a survey of Hg contamination in three species of forage fish, brook silverside (Labidesthes sicculus), threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense) and gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum), from Caddo Lake, Texas, USA and found species-specific differences in Hg concentrations. We examined total length, age, trophic position (determined using δ15N), and growth rate of forage fish as factors that could have influenced within-and between-species differences in Hg concentration. Total length and age were the best predictors of within-species differences in Hg concentration. Between-species differences in Hg concentrations were most strongly influenced by trophic position.     

EPA'S BASINS MODEL: GOOD SCIENCE OR SERENDIPITOUS MODELING?1

ABSTRACT: Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Non‐point Sources (BASINS) is a geographic‐based watershed assessment tool developed by EPA's Office of Water to help states more efficiently target and evaluate water‐bodies that are not meeting water quality standards. BASINS (EPA, 1996a, 1998) brings together data on water quality and quantity, land uses, point source loadings, and other related spatial data with supporting nonpoint and water quality models at a quicker and more effective pace. EPA developed BASINS, to better integrate point and nonpoint source water quality assessments for the Nation's 2100+ watersheds. In its zeal to achieve this endpoint, EPA has initiated a simplistic approach that was expected to grow through scientific enhancements as TMDL developers become more familiar with modeling requirements. BASINS builds upon federal databases of water quality conditions and point source loadings for numerous parameters where quality assurance is suspect in some cases. Its design allows comprehensive assessments and modeling in typical Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) computations. While the TMDL utility is the primary reason BASINS was developed, other longer‐range water quality assessments will become possible as the Agency expands the suite of assessment models and databases in future releases. The simplistic approach to modeling and user‐friendly tools gives rise, however, to technical and philosophical concerns related to default data usage. Seamless generation of model input files and the failure of some utilities to work properly suggest to NCASI that serious problems may still exist and prompts the need for a more rigorous peer‐review. Furthermore, sustainable training becomes paramount, as some older modelers will be unfamiliar with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and associated computer skills. Overall, however, BASINS was judged to be an excellent beginning tool to meet the complex environmental modeling needs in the 21st Century.     

Soil lead (Pb) in residential transects through Lubbock,Texas: a preliminary assessment

Residential lead (Pb) contamination, resulting from decades-long use of leaded gasoline and lead-based paint, is likely to be present in soils in most urban areas. A screening level sampling effort demonstrated that Lubbock, Texas, USA, like other cities of its age and size, has areas of elevated soil Pb. This effort was based on soil sampling performed on residential, commercial and thoroughfare properties. The focus of this study was to investigate that component of soil contamination due to combustion of leaded gasoline. Soils were collected from the 1–2 cm surface layer from street-side property borders, well away from buildings that might lead to soil contamination from leaded paint chips. All samples were analyzed for Pb after a 1 M HNO₃ mild extraction to determine the amount of bioavailable Pb. Two of three transects through the city demonstrated significant trends of decreasing Pb concentrations with distance from the city center, paralleling a decrease in developed property age. Peak soil Pb concentrations outside city development was 4.9 ± 0.6 mg/kg while the median concentration for the city was 35.4 mg/kg. Peak soil Pb concentrations in the city center ranged from 90.0 to 174.0 mg/kg and decreased exponentially to 6.0–9.0 mg/kg at the furthest terminus of the residential transects.     

Role of rainfall intensity and hydrology in nutrient transport via surface runoff

Loss of soil nutrients in runoff accelerates eutrophication of surface waters. This study evaluated P and N in surface runoff in relation to rainfall intensity and hydrology for two soils along a single hillslope. Experiments were initiated on 1- by 2-m plots at foot-slope (6%) and mid-slope (30%) positions within an alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)-orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata L.) field. Rain simulations (2.9 and 7.0 cm h(-1)) were conducted under wet (spring) and dry (late-summer) conditions. Elevated, antecedent soil moisture at the foot-slope during the spring resulted in less rain required to generate runoff and greater runoff volumes, compared with runoff from the well-drained mid-slope in spring and at both landscape positions in late summer. Phosphorus in runoff was primarily in dissolved reactive form (DRP averaged 71% of total P), with DRP concentrations from the two soils corresponding with soil test P levels. Nitrogen in runoff was mainly nitrate (NO3-N averaged 77% of total N). Site hydrology, not chemistry, was primarily responsible for variations in mass N and P losses with landscape position. Larger runoff volumes from the foot-slope produced higher losses of total P (0.08 kg ha(-1)) and N (1.35 kg ha(-1)) than did runoff from the mid-slope (0.05 total P kg ha(-1); 0.48 kg N ha(-1)), particularly under wet, spring-time conditions. Nutrient losses were significantly greater under the high intensity rainfall due to larger runoff volumes. Results affirm the critical source area concept for both N and P: both nutrient availability and hydrology in combination control nutrient loss.