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131.
This study provides a methodology for evaluation and monitoring of recurring hazards in underground coal mining. An important measure in this regard may be the ‘time between occurrences’ (TBO) of hazards that can be modeled in the similar fashion of ‘time between failures’ (TBF) data modeling which is practiced in reliability study. Typically, time between accidents is modeled in safety study. This study is therefore new in two counts: (i) statistically modeling hazard occurrences based on inspection reports and (ii) monitoring of safety status based on control charting of hazard occurrences. The methodology includes Weibull-distribution based hazard rate functions, Poisson-distribution based cumulative risk functions, and Weibull-distribution based control charts. The new methodology is applied to an underground coal mining worksystem and the results are discussed. The case study results show that hazards related to machinery, ground-fall, housekeeping, roadways, and materials are more frequently occurring. It is recommended that in addition to planned inspections for identification of hazards, a control chart based hazard mitigation scheme should be employed at the mine sections for better monitoring and control of hazards. 相似文献
132.
Point sampling of soft-sediment macrofauna provided a regional-scale analysis of species composition, diversity, and demographic distributions in the northern Bering Sea (61°0??C65°30??N Lat) in spring 2006. Taxonomic differences distinguished subregions north and south of St. Lawrence Island (P?<?0.1%). High compositional variability occurred within and between sites, with higher variability among northern sites. One to two species dominated most assemblages, with moderately common or rare species. Ampeliscid amphipods characterized the north, and bivalves the south. Bivalves (Macoma calcarea Gmelin, Nuculana radiata Krause, Ennucula tenuis Montagu) were commonly widespread, in varied abundances and sizes. Overall, the extensive soft-sediment habitat supports a varied fauna composition with location, in species dominance, abundance, and size-class. This spatially heterogeneous regional structure is important in assessing ecosystem performance related to secondary production, biogeochemistry, bioturbation, top predator feeding strategy, recruitment, and in measuring change. 相似文献
133.
134.
Statistical methods emphasizing formal hypothesis testing have dominated the analyses used by ecologists to gain insight from data. Here, we review alternatives to hypothesis testing including techniques for parameter estimation and model selection using likelihood and Bayesian techniques. These methods emphasize evaluation of weight of evidence for multiple hypotheses, multimodel inference, and use of prior information in analysis. We provide a tutorial for maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters and model selection using information theoretics, including a brief treatment of procedures for model comparison, model averaging, and use of data from multiple sources. We discuss the advantages of likelihood estimation, Bayesian analysis, and meta-analysis as ways to accumulate understanding across multiple studies. These statistical methods hold promise for new insight in ecology by encouraging thoughtful model building as part of inquiry, providing a unified framework for the empirical analysis of theoretical models, and by facilitating the formal accumulation of evidence bearing on fundamental questions. 相似文献
135.
Methyl tertiary‐butyl ether (MTBE) is commonly used as a fuel additive because of its many favorable properties that allow it to improve fuel combustion and reduce resulting concentrations of carbon monoxide and unburnt hydrocarbons. Unfortunately, increased production and use have led to its introduction into the environment. Of particular concern is its introduction into drinking water supplies. Accordingly, research studies have been initiated to investigate the treatment of MTBE‐contaminated soil and groundwater. The summer 2000 issue of Remediation reported the results of an initial study conducted by the authors to evaluate the treatment of MTBE using Fenton's reagent. In this follow‐up study, experiments were conducted to further demonstrate the effectiveness of using Fenton's reagent (H2O2:Fe+2) to treat MTBE‐contaminated groundwater. The concentration of MTBE was reduced from an initial concentration of 1,300 μg/l (14.77 μ moles) to the regulatory level of 20 μg/l (0.23 μ moles) at a H2O2:Fe+2 molar ratio of 1:1, with ten minutes of contact time and an optimum pH of 5. The by‐products, acetone and tertiary butyl alcohol, which are always present in MTBE in trace amounts, were not removed even after 60 minutes of reaction time. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. * 相似文献
136.
Marine macroalgae need carbon-concentrating mechanisms because they have only limited access to CO2 in their natural environment. Previous studies have shown that one important strategy common to many algae is the activity of periplasmic carbonic anhydrases that catalyse the dehydration of HCO3- into CO2. The latter can then cross the plasma membrane by passive diffusion. We hypothesised that an active (energy-consuming) mechanism might also be involved in the membrane transport of CO2, as is the case in a number of microalgae. Coccotylus truncatus was chosen as a model organism for this study because it belongs to a group of algae that usually lack direct HCO3- uptake: sublittoral red algae. The method used to study carbon uptake was pH drift of the seawater medium surrounding the algae in a closed vessel, with and without the addition of specific inhibitors or proton buffers. Measured parameters included pH, total inorganic carbon and alkalinity of the seawater medium. Our results suggest that, in C. truncatus, periplasmic carbonic anhydrase as well as H+ extrusion, probably driven by a vanadate-sensitive P-type H+-ATPase (proton pump), are involved in CO2 uptake. No direct uptake of HCO3- was discovered. This paper also presents data on the buffer capacity of several proton buffers and the carbon-uptake inhibitors acetazolamide, 4,4'-diisothiocyano-stilbene-2,2'-disulfonate (DIDS) and orthovanadate in Baltic Sea water with a salinity of 6.5 psu. 相似文献
137.
Population dynamics and control of invasive Spartina alterniflora: inference and forecasting under uncertainty 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Managing invaded ecosystems entails making decisions about control strategies in the face of scientific uncertainty and ecological stochasticity. Statistical tools such as model selection and Bayesian decision analysis can guide decision-making by estimating probabilities of outcomes under alternative management scenarios, but these tools have seldom been applied in invasion ecology. We illustrate the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in a case study of smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) invading Willapa Bay, Washington. To address uncertainty in model structure, we quantified the weight of evidence for two previously proposed hypotheses, that S. alterniflora recruitment varies with climatic conditions (represented by sea surface temperature) and that recruitment is subject to an Allee effect due to pollen limitation. By fitting models to time series data, we found strong support for climate effects, with higher per capita seedling production in warmer years, but no evidence for an Allee effect based on either the total area invaded or the mean distance between neighboring clones. We used the best-supported model to compare alternative control strategies, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and population dynamics. For a fixed annual removal effort, the probability of eradication in 10 years was highest, and final invaded area lowest, if removals targeted the smallest clones rather than the largest or randomly selected clones. The relationship between removal effort and probability of eradication was highly nonlinear, with a sharp threshold separating -0% and -100% probability of success, and this threshold was 95% lower in simulations beginning early rather than late in the invasion. This advantage of a rapid response strategy is due to density-dependent population growth, which produces alternative stable equilibria depending on the initial invasion size when control begins. Our approach could be applied to a wide range of invasive species management problems where appropriate data are available. 相似文献
138.
Amanda Thimmes Ray Huffaker Rollin Hotchkiss 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2005,41(6):1449-1456
The loss of the world's reservoir capacity to sedimentation can be mitigated by altering dam operations to release sediment downstream. However, legal uncertainty regarding whether dam owners are liable for damages to surrounding landowners due to altered operations provides a significant disincentive for sustainable sediment management. Past work recommends that courts apply a “rule of reasonableness” in assessing liability: dam owners should be held liable for damages only if they act unreasonably in altering operations, and surrounding landowners should take reasonable measures to mitigate foreseeable damage. Based on past cases, judicial determinations of reasonable reservoir management and reasonable precautionary measures by landowners are generally highly speculative, controversial, and based on limited information. Courts can ease the future burden of making these difficult determinations with rulings that create economic incentives for parties to act reasonably. For example, courts might entitle landowners to be free from sediment related damages, and protect the entitlement with a liability rule. This gives dam owners an economic incentive to release sediment only if the benefits of doing so outweigh court ordered damages to landowners. Past judicial decisions are largely consistent with this legal regime. 相似文献
139.
Ray Germann 《补救:环境净化治理成本、技术与工艺杂志》1992,2(3):321-329
Negative public perceptions can dramatically increase site remediation costs or even bring projects to a grinding halt. Public opposition and ensuing political pressure are two damaging, but often ignored, obstacles that confront remediation managers. This article discusses these and other public management issues, recommending tactics proven for maintaining positive working relationships with a site's human neighbors, the media (electronic and print), government officials, regulatory agencies, and other concerned groups to allow site cleanup to proceed without intervention, opposition, or unnecessary delay. It illustrates its warnings about public and political hostility with case histories from Superfund, RCRA, and other cleanup sites, recounting how corporate management won the public's confidence and kept their projects on time and within budget. 相似文献
140.
Ray Hilborn 《Ecological modelling》1979,6(1):23-30
This paper analyzes the long term time dynamics of theoretical predator-prey systems in a continuous medium with constant diffusion. It is shown that oscillatory or unstable predator-prey interactions will lead to patchy distributions and that unstable interactions will persist for very long periods of time when diffusion is operating. Some of the problems of sampling and parameter estimation of data from patchy distributions are examined and discussed. 相似文献