Importance of climate uncertainty for projections of forest ecosystem services

Regional Environmental Change - Mountain forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services (ES, e.g., timber production, protection from natural hazards, maintaining biodiversity) and are...     

Untangling positive and negative biotic interactions: views from above and below ground in a forest ecosystem

In ecological communities, the outcome of plant-plant interactions represents the net effect of positive and negative interactions occurring above and below ground. Untangling these complex relationships can provide a better understanding of mechanisms that underlie plant-plant interactions and enhance our ability to predict population, community, and ecosystem effects of biotic interactions. In forested ecosystems, tree seedlings interact with established vegetation, but the mechanisms and outcomes of these interactions are not well understood. To explore such mechanisms, we manipulated above- and belowground interactions among tree seedlings, shrubs, and trees and monitored seedling survival and growth of six species (Pinus banksiana, Betula papyrifera, P. resinosa, Quercus rubra, P. strobus, and Acer rubrum) in mature pine-dominated forest in northern Minnesota, USA. The forest had a moderately open canopy and sandy soils. Understory manipulations were implemented in the forest interior and in large gaps and included removal of shrubs (no interactions), tieback of shrubs (belowground), removal of shrubs with addition of shade (aboveground), and unmanipulated shrubs (both below- and aboveground). We found that shrubs either suppressed or facilitated seedling survival and growth depending on the seedling species, source of interaction (e.g., above- or belowground), and ecological context (e.g., gap or forest interior). In general, shrubs strongly influenced survival and growth in gaps, with more modest effects in the forest interior. In gaps, the presence of shrub roots markedly decreased seedling growth and survival, supporting the idea that belowground competition may be more important in dry, nutrient-poor sites. Shrub shade effects were neutral for three species and facilitative for the other three. Facilitation was more likely for shade-tolerant species. In the forest interior, shrub shade negatively affected seedling survival for the most shade-intolerant species. For several species the net effect of shrubs masked the existence of both positive and negative interactions above and below ground. Our results highlight the complexity of plant-plant interactions, demonstrate that outcomes of these interactions vary with the nature of resource limitation and the ecophysiology of the species involved, and suggest that ecological theory that rests on particular notions of plant-plant interactions (e.g., competition) should consider simultaneous positive and negative interactions occurring above and below ground.     

Measuring facial symmetry in the wild: a case study in Olive Baboons (Papio anubis)

Individuals under stress and those of intrinsically low quality may have insufficient resources to invest in developing equally on both sides. Such individuals may thus display higher levels of fluctuating asymmetry (FA)—small, random departures from perfect bilateral symmetry. These small deviations from symmetry are often less than 1 % of trait size, similar to variation in symmetry generated by measurement error. Studies regarding FA must thoroughly assess measurement error if reliable conclusions regarding FA and fitness parameters are to be drawn. Although many studies regarding facial symmetry in humans have been conducted, few have been carried out on non-human primates. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether facial FA in a non-human primate, the olive baboon (Papio anubis) can be reliably measured from digital photographs. Facial FA was measured in three sets of bilaterally symmetrical landmarks from digital images of 35 olive baboons at Gashaka-Gumti National Park, Nigeria. Measurement error was found to be low indicating a high level of reliability based on comparisons of values from two photos of the same individual (r?=?0.85). Measurement error was found to be related to the size of the face. This suggests that orientation error increases in large faces and could potentially influence FA scores. These findings highlight the need for FA studies to measure and control error caused by orientation and position of subjects if FA is to be of utility to behavioural ecology and conservation (e.g. if FA reflects whether individuals in a population are suffering from environmental or genetic stress).     

Variation in the temporal and spatial use of signals and its implications for multimodal communication

The use of signals across multiple sensory modalities in communication is common in animals and plants. Determining the information that each signal component conveys has provided unique insights into why multimodal signals evolve. However, how these complex signals are assessed by receivers will also influence their evolution, a hypothesis that has received less attention. Here, we explore multimodal signal assessment in a closely related complex of island flycatchers that have diverged in visual and acoustic signals. Using field experiments that manipulated song and plumage colour, we tested if song, a possible long-range signal, is assessed before plumage colour in conspecific recognition. We find that divergent song and colour are assessed in sequence, and this pattern of sequential assessment is likely mediated by habitat structure and the extent of differences in signal characteristics. A broad survey of the literature suggests that many organisms from a wide range of taxa sequentially assess multimodal signals, with long-range signals attracting conspecifics for further assessment of close-range signals. Our results highlight the need to consider how signals are assessed when understanding multimodal signal evolution. Finally, given the results of our field experiments indicating sequential assessment of divergent song and colour in the recognition of conspecifics, we discuss the consequences of multimodal signal divergence for the origin of species, as changes in signals across different sensory modalities may influence the evolution of premating reproductive isolation.     

An ethical analysis of hydrometeorological prediction and decision making: The case of the 1997 Red River flood

Weather, climate, and flood predictions are incorporated into human decisions in a wide variety of situations, including decisions related to hazardous hydrometeorological events. This article examines ethical aspects of such predictions and decisions, focusing on the case of the 1997 Red River flood in Grand Forks, North Dakota and East Grand Forks, Minnesota (US). The analysis employs a formal ethical framework and analytical method derived from medical and business ethics. The results of the analysis highlight issues related to forecast generation, communication of forecast meaning and uncertainty, responsibility for the use of forecasts in decision making, and trade-offs between the desire for forecast certainty and the risk of missed events. Implications of the analysis for the broader arenas of weather, climate, and flood prediction and disaster management are also discussed.     

Analyzing disease risks associated with translocations

Translocations of species are expected to be used increasingly to counter the undesirable effects of anthropogenic changes to ecosystems, including loss of species. Methods to assess the risk of disease associated with translocations have been compiled in a comprehensive manual of disease-risk analysis for movement of domestic animals. We used this manual to devise a qualitative method for assessing the probability of the occurrence of disease in wild animals associated with translocations. We adapted the method such that we considered a parasite (any agent of infectious or noninfectious disease) a hazard if it or the host had crossed an ecological or geographical barrier and was novel to the host. We included in our analyses hazards present throughout the translocation pathway derived from the interactions between host immunity and the parasite, the effect of parasites on populations, the effect of noninfectious disease agents, and the effect of stressors on host-parasite interactions. We used the reintroduction of Eurasian Cranes (Grus grus) to England to demonstrate our method. Of the 24 hazards identified, 1 was classified as high risk (coccidia) and 5 were medium risk (highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, Mycobacterium avium, Aspergillus fumigatus, tracheal worms [Syngamus sp. and Cyathostoma sp.], and Tetrameres spp.). Seventeen other hazards were considered low or very low risk. In the absence of better information on the number, identity, distribution, and pathogenicity of parasites of wild animals, there is uncertainty in the risk of disease to translocated animals and recipient populations. Surveys of parasites in source and destination populations and detailed health monitoring after release will improve the information available for future analyses of disease risk. We believe our method can be adapted to assess the risks of disease in other translocated populations.     

A little movement orientated to the geomagnetic field makes a big difference in strong flows

Whilst a range of animals have been shown to respond behaviourally to components of the Earth’s magnetic field, evidence of the value of this sensory perception for small animals advected by strong flows (wind/ocean currents) is equivocal. We added geomagnetic directional swimming behaviour for North Atlantic loggerhead turtle hatchlings (Caretta caretta) into a high-resolution (1/4°) global general circulation ocean model to simulate 2,925-year-long hatchling trajectories comprising 355,875 locations. A little directional swimming (1–3 h per day) had a major impact on trajectories; simulated hatchlings travelled further south into warmer water. As a result, thermal elevation of hatchling metabolic rates was estimated to be between 63.3 and 114.5% after 220 days. We show that even small animals in strong flows can benefit from geomagnetic orientation and thus the potential implications of directional swimming for other taxa may be broad.     

Concentrating anthropogenic disturbance to balance ecological and economic values: applications to forest management

To maintain healthy ecosystems, natural-disturbance-based management aims to minimize differences between unmanaged and managed landscapes. Two related approaches may help accomplish this goal, either applied together or in isolation: (1) concentrating anthropogenic disturbance through zoning (with protected areas and intensive management); and (2) emulating natural disturbances. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of these two approaches, applied both in isolation and in combination, on the structure of the forest landscape. To do so, we use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model on a large fire-dominated landscape in eastern Canada. Specifically, we examine the effects of (1) increasing the maximum size of logged stands (cutblocks) to better emulate the full range of fire sizes in a fire-dominated landscape, (2) increasing protected areas, and (3) adding aggregated or dispersed intensive wood production areas to the landscape in addition to protected areas (triad management). We focus on maximizing the amount and minimizing the fragmentation of old-growth forest and on reducing road construction. Increasing maximum cutblock size and adding protected areas led to reduced road construction, while the latter also resulted in less fragmentation and more old growth. Although protected areas led to reduced harvest volume, the addition of an intensive production zone (triad management) counterbalanced this loss and resulted in more old growth than equivalent scenarios with protected areas but no intensive production zone. However, we found no differences between aggregated and dispersed intensive wood production. Our results imply that differences between unmanaged and managed landscapes can be reduced by concentrating logging efforts through a combination of protected areas and intensive wood production, and by creating some larger cutblocks. We conclude that the forest industry and regulators should therefore seek to increase protected areas through triad management and consider increasing maximum cutblock size. These results add to a growing body of literature indicating that intensive management on a small part of the landscape may be better than less intensive management spread out over a much larger part of the landscape, whether this is in the context of forestry, agriculture, or urban development.     

Seeing the forest for the heterogeneous trees: stand-scale resource distributions emerge from tree-scale structure

Forest ecosystem processes depend on local interactions that are modified by the spatial pattern of trees and resources. Effects of resource supplies on processes such as regeneration are increasingly well understood, yet we have few tools to compare resource heterogeneity among forests that differ in structural complexity. We used a neighborhood approach to examine understory light and nutrient availability in a well-replicated and large-scale variable-retention harvesting experiment in a red pine forest in Minnesota, USA. The experiment included an unharvested control and three harvesting treatments with similar tree abundance but different patterns of retention (evenly dispersed as well as aggregated retention achieved by cutting 0.1- or 0.3-ha gaps). We measured light and soil nutrients across all treatments and mapped trees around each sample point to develop an index of neighborhood effects (NI). Field data and simulation modeling were used to test hypotheses that the mean and heterogeneity of resource availability would increase with patchiness because of greater variation in competitive environments. Our treatments dramatically altered the types and abundances of competitive neighborhoods (NI) in each stand and resulted in significantly nonlinear relationships of light, nitrogen and phosphorus availability to NI. Hence, the distribution of neighborhoods in each treatment had a significant impact on resource availability and heterogeneity. In dense control stands, neighborhood variation had little impact on resource availability, whereas in more open stands (retention treatments), it had large effects on light and modest effects on soil nutrients. Our results demonstrate that tree spatial pattern can affect resource availability and heterogeneity in explainable and predictable ways, and that neighborhood models provide a useful tool for scaling heterogeneity from the individual tree to the stand. These insights are needed to anticipate the outcomes of silvicultural manipulations and should become more holistically integrated into both basic ecological and management science.