An ethical analysis of hydrometeorological prediction and decision making: The case of the 1997 Red River flood

Weather, climate, and flood predictions are incorporated into human decisions in a wide variety of situations, including decisions related to hazardous hydrometeorological events. This article examines ethical aspects of such predictions and decisions, focusing on the case of the 1997 Red River flood in Grand Forks, North Dakota and East Grand Forks, Minnesota (US). The analysis employs a formal ethical framework and analytical method derived from medical and business ethics. The results of the analysis highlight issues related to forecast generation, communication of forecast meaning and uncertainty, responsibility for the use of forecasts in decision making, and trade-offs between the desire for forecast certainty and the risk of missed events. Implications of the analysis for the broader arenas of weather, climate, and flood prediction and disaster management are also discussed.     

Environmental cadmium levels increase phytochelatin and glutathione in lettuce grown in a chelator-buffered nutrient solution

Phytochelatins are enzymatically synthesized peptides involved in metal detoxification and have been measured in plants grown at very high Cd concentrations, but few studies have examined the response of plants at lower environmentally relevant Cd concentrations. Using an ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA)-buffered nutrient medium, we have varied Cd exposure and measured phytochelatin and glutathione concentrations in romaine lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. var. longifolia Lam. var. Parris Island) grown in a flow-through hydroponic (FTH) system. Very low free ionic Cd (10(-9.6) M) increased average phytochelatin concentrations above those of controls, and increasing Cd resulted in increased phytochelatin production, though increases were tissue dependent. Glutathione concentrations also increased with increasing Cd. In other standard hydroponic experiments, the media were manipulated to vary total Cd concentration while the ionic Cd was fixed. We found that the total amount of Cd (primarily EDTA bound) in the medium altered thiol production in roots, whereas thiols in leaves remained constant. The Cd uptake into roots and translocation to old leaves was also influenced by the total concentration in the medium. Cadmium in all tissues was lower and in some tissues thiol concentrations were higher than in FTH-grown plants grown in identical medium, suggesting that nutrient delivery technique is also an important variable. Though phytochelatin and glutathione production can be sensitive to changes in bioavailable Cd, thiol concentrations will not necessarily reflect the Cd content of the plant tissues.     

VOTER REACTIONS TO THE 1976 WATER DEVELOPMENT AND QUALITY REFERENDA IN TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: Since 1957, Texans have had the opportunity to vote on eight referenda concerning the allocation of state funds for water resources development and the maintenance of water quality. In 1976, a water development amendment and a water quality amendment were presented simultaneously to the voters of Texas, affording a unique opportunity for electoral-geographic comparison of county-level returns on the two issues. In this paper, cartographic and statistical analyses of the county-level voting outcomes for each referendum are presented. In both cases, the referenda were supported by voters in water-deficient West Texas, especially those counties dependent on irrigated crop production. In contrast, urban voters and East Texans tended to oppose both amendments. However, support for the water quality amendment in the urbanized areas of Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio enabled this amendment to pass statewide while its counterpart failed. The results highlight the importance of local differences in perceived water policy needs, and in doing so they illustrate that geographical anlaysis of returns from initiatives and referenda is a useful tool for understanding the locational conflicts underlying water resources and other policy efforts.     

IIHS head restraint ratings and insurance injury claim rates

Objectives: The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) rates front seat/head restraint designs using a combination of static and dynamic measurements following RCAR-IIWPG procedures. The purpose of this study was to determine whether vehicles with better IIHS-rated seats/head restraints had lower injury risk in rear-end collisions and how the effect of better rated seats interacted with driver gender and age.

Methods: The presence of an associated insurance injury claim was determined for rear-impact crashes using 2001–2014 model year cars and SUVs. Logistic regression was used to compare injury risk for vehicles with good, acceptable, and marginal IIHS-rated seats/head restraints with poor-rated seats/head restraints. Analyses were run by gender and driver age and also by the rate of more severe injury claims.

Results: Injury rates were 11.2% lower for vehicles with seats/head restraints rated good compared to vehicles with seats/head restraints rated poor. The percentage reduction for good- versus poor-rated seats was greater for females (12.7%) than males (8.9%). Comparing good- with poor-rated seats, driver ages 15–24 had the largest reduction at 19.8%, followed by 10.7% for driver ages 45–64 and 10.4% for driver ages 25–44.

Conclusions: Seats/head restraints with better IIHS ratings are associated with lower injury rates in rear-impact collisions than seats rated poor. The reductions in injury rates were strongest for females and for young-to–middle-age drivers. The strong reductions in injury rates for these groups are encouraging given their high initial injury rates.     

Reviewing University Community Gardens for Sustainability: taking stock,comparisons with urban community gardens and mapping research opportunities

Community gardens (CGs) in university settings are faced with challenges associated with a transient and inexperienced population of student gardeners, but they also have the potential to have a lasting impact on the food behaviours of many young people. This paper undertakes a systematic critical review of literature about University Community Gardens for Sustainability (UCGS) in order to suggest directions of future research in the emerging field research about CGs within and outside of universities. The literature shows that UCGS have similar benefits to those identified in urban CG literature; but with greater emphasis on both the educational and environmental sustainability benefits, suggesting an under-used potential of CGs in these areas. We argue that a better understanding of the particular challenges and benefits of UCGS could improve outcomes of CGs in all settings. Therefore we recommend that future should explore: (1) participant transience in CGs, thereby helping sustainability projects with large volunteer bases learn to cope with challenges this poses in order to maximise the garden’s impacts; (2) whether/how participating in CGs can contribute to changes in attitudes/behaviours with regards to sustainability and be used as a tool for Education for Sustainability in and outside of university settings and (3) failed cases of CGs to genuinely understand factors that contribute to success. By addressing these areas we can improve our understanding of how community gardening can contribute to our communities, universities and environment, and can begin to make these potential contributions a reality.     

Calanoid copepod escape behavior in response to a visual predator

Calanoid copepods typically exhibit escape reactions to hydrodynamic stimuli such as those generated by the approach of a predator. During the summers of 2000, 2001 and 2004, two small calanoid species, Temora turbinata Dana, 1849 and Paracalanus parvus Claus, 1863 were exposed to a visual predatory fish, the blenny Acanthemblemaria spinosa Metzelaar, 1919, and their predator–prey interactions were recorded using both high-speed and standard videographic techniques. Copepod escape reaction components, including swimming pattern, reactive distance, turning rate, and jump kinetics, were quantified from individual predation events using motion analysis techniques. Among the observed escape reaction components, differences were noted between the species’ swimming patterns prior to attack and their response latencies. Temora turbinata was a continuous cruiser and P. parvus exhibited a hop-and-sink swimming pattern. During periods of sinking, P. parvus stopped beating its appendages, which presumably reduced any self-generated hydrodynamic signals and increased perceptual abilities to detect an approaching predator. Response latency was determined for each copepod species using a hydrodynamic stimulus produced by a 1 ms acoustic signal. Response latencies of T. turbinata were significantly longer than those of P. parvus. Despite some apparent perceptual advantages of P. parvus, the blenny successfully captured both species by modifying its attack behavior for the targeted prey.     

Land change in the southern Yucatán and Calakmul biosphere reserve: effects on habitat and biodiversity.

The southern Yucatán contains the largest expanse of seasonal tropical forests remaining in Mexico, forming an ecocline between the drier north of the peninsula and the humid Petén, Guatemala. The Calakmul Biosphere Reserve resides in the center of this region as part of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor. The reserve's functions are examined in regard to land changes throughout the region, generated over the last 40 years by increasing settlement and the expansion and intensification of agriculture. These changes are documented from 1987/1988 to 2000, and their implications regarding the capacity of the reserve to protect the ecocline, forest habitats, and butterfly diversity are addressed. The results indicate that the current landscape matrix serves the biotic diversity of the reserve, with several looming caveats involving the loss of humid forests and the interruption of biota flow across the ecocline, and the amount and proximity of older forest patches beyond the reserve. The highly dynamic land cover changes underway in this economic frontier warrant an adaptive management approach that monitors the major changes underway in mature forest types, while the paucity of systematic ecological and environment-development studies is rectified in order to inform policy and practice.     

Settlement patterns of female barn swallows Hirundo rustica across different group sizes: access to colorful males or favored nests?

In most avian species, individuals are faced with two critical decisions at the start of a breeding season: choosing a breeding site and a mate. An analysis of these decisions in light of population-level patterns, such as group size variation in social breeders, can illuminate the causes and patterns of habitat selection behavior. Group sizes are variable in barn swallows; however, no clear and consistent benefits of group breeding have been found in this species, and it is puzzling as to why individuals breed socially. Previous analyses demonstrated that individuals aggregate to gain access to nests that were constructed during previous seasons; however extra-pair matings are also prevalent in this species, raising questions about the mate-selection strategies of females across different group sizes. In this paper, I address the question of how females make their first site-selection decisions in terms of two features known to be causally related to seasonal reproductive success: (1) colorful males or (2) old nests. Using experimental and observational data, I tested, but found no support for, the hypotheses that propose female settlement decisions are a function of (1) the prevalence of colorful males or (2) the increased opportunity for extra-pair matings at group sites. Instead, it is apparent that female settlement patterns are strongly tied to the availability of old nests at a site. Extra-pair fertilizations are equally common across all group sizes in this population, suggesting that females do not face a trade-off between old nests and the possibility of extra-pair mating decisions when making settlement decisions.