Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.     

Social cost of environmental pollution and application of counter measures through clean development mechanism: in the context of developing countries

The developing countries i.e., the non-Annex-I countries (parties to the Kyoto Protocol but not responsible to any reduction target yet) in the Kyoto Protocol whose economies are in transition are also allowed to reduce GHG emissions. Among these, the countries that have accepted the Kyoto Protocol may be benefited from CDM projects to promote sustainable development. The developed countries i.e., the Annex-I countries (that have signed the Kyoto Protocol & are responsible to have specific GHG emission reduction target) or the investing countries, in return, have privilege to purchase CER credits (in units equivalent to one tonne of CO₂ gas emission reduction) to meet the emission target as specified in the Kyoto Protocol. The key step in understanding about CDM is to grasp the concept of “baseline” and “additionality”. The “Baseline” is the emissions level that would have existed if a CDM project had not happened. The feature of an approved CDM project is that the planned reductions would not occur without the additional incentive provided by emission reduction credits; this concept is known as “Additionality”. According to environmental additionality concept, baseline emission minus project emission is equal to emissions reduction. “Investment Additionality,” ultimately rejected during negotiation of the “Marrakech Accords” and “Financial Additionality,” are the two important concepts. The concept of trading of CER matches to the idea of Pigovian tax (equal to the negative externality and which is considered one of the “traditional” means of bringing a modicum of market forces) in Economics, making pollution more costly to the polluter, as the polluters have negative cost since they save money by polluting; hence, there are supposed negative externalities associated with the market activity. Economic theory predicts that in an economy where the cost of reaching mutual agreement between parties is high and where pollution is diffuse, Pigovian tax will be an efficient way to promote the public interest and will lead to an improvement of the quality of life measured by the Genuine Progress Indicator and other human economic indicators, as well as higher gross domestic product growth. We can seek a level of pollution such that the marginal savings (MS) to one polluting unit from pollution (−MC) is equal to marginal damage (MD) from pollution over the entire population, since pollution is a public bad i.e., MS (x*) = ∑MD_i (x*) where ∑D_i (x) is the total damage. Though the responsibility of reduction in emission does not lie on the non-Annex-I countries, still effort of maintaining global emission balance can be expected equally from developed and developing countries. The responsibilities of Kyoto Protocol are (a) to reduce global GHG emissions, (b) to bring about sustainable development in the developing countries lie on above two groups since its effect on February 16, 2005. Different polluters have different costs of pollution control. The least costly way of controlling pollution from various sources that reflects different costs of pollution control making the set of environmental regulations to achieve the emission target at the lowest cost makes the regulation cost-effective. Though efficiency is not attainable for many regulations, cost-effectiveness is attainable.     

Radial increment of larch and pine in central Yakutia as dependent on climate change over the past 120 years

The results of studies on the radial increment of larch and pine in central Yakutia are presented. The application of dendroclimatological methods to the study of tree-ring chronologies has made it possible to evaluate tree growth response to the dynamics of climatic factors over the past 120 years. The results of analysis of radial tree increment show that the onset of the growing season has shifted to earlier dates by the end of the 20th century.     

Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.     

Building resilience to water scarcity in southern Spain: a case study of rice farming in Doñana protected wetlands

Agricultural water management needs to evolve in view of increased water scarcity, especially when farming and natural protected areas are closely linked. In the study site of Doñana (southern Spain), water is shared by rice producers and a world heritage biodiversity ecosystem. Our aim is to contribute to defining adaptation strategies that may build resilience to increasing water scarcity and minimize water conflicts among agricultural and natural systems. The analytical framework links a participatory process with quantitative methods to prioritize the adaptation options. Bottom-up proposed adaptation measures are evaluated by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes both socioeconomic criteria and criteria of the ecosystem services affected by the adaptation options. Criteria weights are estimated by three different methods—analytic hierarchy process, Likert scale and equal weights—that are then compared. Finally, scores from an MCA are input into an optimization model used to determine the optimal land-use distribution in order to maximize utility and land-use diversification according to different scenarios of funds and water availability. While our results show a spectrum of perceptions of priorities among stakeholders, there is one overriding theme that is to define a way to restore part of the rice fields to natural wetlands. These results hold true under the current climate scenario and even more so under an increased water scarcity scenario.     

Fuel efficiency improvement of a dual-fuel engine fuelled with Honge oil methyl ester (HOME)–bioethanol and producer gas

Renewable and alternative fuels have numerous advantages compared with fossil fuels as they are renewable and biodegradable and provide food and energy security and foreign exchange savings besides addressing environmental concerns and socio-economic issues (Yaliwal et al. 2013. International Journal of Sustainable Engineering, doi:10.1080/19397038.2013.801530. Zhu et al. 2011a, Applied Thermal Engineering 31 (14–15): 2271–2278; Zhu et al. 2011b, Fuel 90: 1743-1750; Banapurmath, Tewari, and Hosmath 2008, Renewable Energy 33: 2007-2018; Banapurmath 2009, “Performance, Combustion and Emission Characteristics of a Single Cylinder Direct Injection CI Engine Operated on Dual Fuel Mode Using Honge Oil and Producer Gas.” PhD thesis, 1–195; Banapurmath et al. 2011, Waste and Biomass Valorization 2: 1–11). In this context, the main objective of the present work is to study methods of biofuel production such as Honge oil methyl ester (HOME) using a conventional transesterification process and bioethanol from the Calliandra calothyrsus shrub using a new pretreatment method known as hydrothermal explosion. Further, experimental investigations were carried out on a single-cylinder, four-stroke, direct-injection stationary diesel engine operating in a dual-fuel mode using HOME, bioethanol and producer gas combinations to determine its performance, combustion and emission characteristics. The performance of the dual-fuel engine was analyzed at optimized engine conditions. HOME-Bioethanol (BE) blends such as HOME+ 5% bioethanol (BE5), HOME+ 10% bioethanol (BE10) and HOME+ 15% bioethanol (BE15) were prepared by adding bioethanol to HOME (on volume basis) in different proportions ranging from 5 to 15% with an increment of 5%. In this present work, the effect of different BE blends on the performance of producer gas fuelled dual fuel engine was studied. Experimental investigation on dual fuel engine using BE5-Producer gas operation resulted in up to 4–9% increased brake thermal efficiency with decreased hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO) and marginally increased nitric oxide (NOx) emission levels compared to HOME-Producer gas, BE10-producer gas and BE15-producer gas mode of operation. However, it was observed that, the overall performance of BE-producer gas operation was found to be lower compared to diesel-producer gas operation.     

Efficiency of natural reproduction of sturgeons in the lower Volga under current conditions

The results are presented that have been obtained during long-term studies (1991–2009) on the efficiency of natural reproduction of the beluga, Russian sturgeon, stellate sturgeon, and sterlet in different spawning zones of the Volga. The influence of major environmental factors on the formation of the offspring of these fishes is analyzed. It is shown that the productivity of Volga spawning grounds varies depending on the river flow volume during spring floods and the abundance of active spawners. Practical recommendations are proposed for enhancing sturgeon reproduction in the Volga.     

A survey-based evaluation of community-based co-management of forest resources: a case study of Baishuijiang National Natural Reserve in China

Community-based co-management (CBCM) mechanisms for forest management have matured through the development of new economic analysis and common property theory. However, while many local CBCM mechanisms have been initiated in Chinese Natural Reserves, there are few objective, data-based evaluations of whether these mechanisms improve forest conservation and local livelihoods. This research uses Baishuijiang National Natural Reserve (BNNR) as a study case to evaluate China’s current CBCM mechanisms. The evaluation is based mainly on three criteria: efficiency, equality and sustainability of project operation. Survey data indicate that local CBCM mechanisms provide a wide-participation platform for local villagers, associated administration managers, research institutions and NGOs to join in forest resource protection work while improving local livelihood. CBCM projects have also facilitated a reduction in forest resource dependency, the improvement of household income and encouragement of local people to participate in forest resource protection. Our analysis suggests that most CBCM organizations have made progress in efficiency, equity and sustainability. However, further study should focus on how to deal with the lingering problems of inequity in responsibility and rights among CBCM committee members, poor distribution of benefits, insufficient program-design and management expertise, faulty information dissemination, and insufficient capital investment.