Unemployment effects of climate policy

This paper models the unemployment effects of restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, embodying two of the most significant types of short-term economic imperfections that generate unemployment: sectoral rigidities in labor mobility and sectoral rigidities in wage adjustments. A labor policy is also analyzed that would reduce the direct negative economic effects of the emissions restrictions.The politics of limiting greenhouse gas emissions are often dominated by relatively short-term considerations. Yet the current economic modeling of emissions limitations does not embody economic features that are likely to be particularly important in the short term, in particular, the politically sensitive unemployment rate. Moreover, only a few of these studies also consider policies that would offset the negative direct economic effects of emissions restrictions. For plausible estimates of the parameters, the model shows that, with the labor market imperfections, if there were no offsetting policies, the reductions in GNP in the U.S. in the first 10 years after emissions restrictions were imposed would be as much as 4%. However, if there were two policies, instead of just one: a counteracting labor market policy, as well as the emissions restrictions, the negative direct economic effects could be completely eliminated.     

Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest,U.S.A.

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.     

An agent-based model for simulating trading of multi-species fisheries quota

Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) are increasingly seen as a way to make fisheries more profitable and halt over-capitalisation. ITQs allocate to users of a resource a share of a total allowable catch (TAC) which they are free to use, lease, or sell. We outline an approach to modelling the effect of an ITQ system in a multi-species, multi-sector fishery and apply it to the Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery (CRFFF) in Queensland, Australia. An ITQ model, based on the assumption that operators seek to maximize profits, simulates the use of tradeable quota units by operators in the fishery, taking account of the initial quota allocation to operators, seasonal fish prices and individual operator variable costs, their fishing efficiency and experience, and constraints on vessel movements. Rationalization of the fishery is predicted to occur under an ITQ system for the CRFFF, which will lead to reductions in effort, increases in profits, and changes over time in quota prices. The ecological consequences of transferable quota in the multi-species fishery are seen in the catch and discard levels of the less profitable species, even though a TAC was set. This had flow-on effects on biomass. For example, simulations showed that the TAC for the primary target species, coral trout, was used more fully than that for a less valuable target species, red throat emperor, and that this was achieved through increased discarding of red throat emperor. Catches of both coral trout and red throat emperor that were derived from the model were higher than those recently observed in the fishery. The effort predicted by the model, however, closely approximated the actual effort observed in the fishery following implementation of ITQ management.     

Network structure and parasite transmission in a group living lizard,the gidgee skink, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Egernia stokesii</Emphasis>

Gidgee skinks (Egernia stokesii) form large social aggregations in rocky outcrops across the Flinders Ranges in South Australia. Group members share refuges (rock crevices), which may promote parasite transmission. We measured connectivity of individuals in networks constructed from patterns of common crevice use and observed patterns of parasitism by three blood parasites (Hemolivia, Schellackia and Plasmodium) and an ectoparasitic tick (Amblyomma vikirri). Data came from a 1-year mark-recapture study of four populations. Transmission networks were constructed to represent possible transmission pathways among lizards. Two lizards that used the same refuge within an estimated transmission period were considered connected in the transmission network. An edge was placed between them, directed towards the individual that occupied the crevice last. Social networks, a sub-set of same-day only associations, were small and highly fragmented compared with transmission networks, suggesting that non-synchronous crevice use leads to more transmission opportunities than direct social association. In transmission networks, lizards infested by ticks were connected to more other tick-infested lizards than uninfected lizards. Lizards infected by ticks and carrying multiple blood parasite infections were in more connected positions in the network than lizards without ticks or with one or no blood parasites. Our findings suggest higher levels of network connectivity may increase the risk of becoming infected or that parasites influence lizard behaviour and consequently their position in the network. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. This contribution is part of the special issue “Social Networks: new perspectives” (Guest Editors: J. Krause, D. Lusseau and R. James).     

Population growth, management and environmental degradation in China

Environmental problems in China can be divided into two large classes: pollution and destruction of natural environment. Environmental degradation is particularly serious in areas with rapid population growth. In this paper, some of China's major environmental problems, particularly those concerned with land, forests, and continental waters are introduced in order to see how population growth and management have affected these resources over the past few decades. It is also explained how the Chinese plan to cope and eventually solve these problems.     

一种改进的多学习教与学优化算法

针对传统教与学算法在解决复杂多峰函数优化问题时,具有局部最优且搜索开发能力较差的缺点,提出了一种改进的多学习教与学优化算法,新算法为学员的每一维加入不同的教学因子,设计了基于学员均值比较的教师选择策略和向教师及学员学习的多学习策略。基于多个单峰和多峰函数的仿真结果表明,新算法跟传统的、改进的教与学算法相比,在稳定性、寻优精度和收敛速度方面更具优势。     

Estimating Floodwater Depths from Flood Inundation Maps and Topography

Information on flood inundation extent is important for understanding societal exposure, water storage volumes, flood wave attenuation, future flood hazard, and other variables. A number of organizations now provide flood inundation maps based on satellite remote sensing. These data products can efficiently and accurately provide the areal extent of a flood event, but do not provide floodwater depth, an important attribute for first responders and damage assessment. Here we present a new methodology and a GIS‐based tool, the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET), for estimating floodwater depth based solely on an inundation map and a digital elevation model (DEM). We compare the FwDET results against water depth maps derived from hydraulic simulation of two flood events, a large‐scale event for which we use medium resolution input layer (10 m) and a small‐scale event for which we use a high‐resolution (LiDAR; 1 m) input. Further testing is performed for two inundation maps with a number of challenging features that include a narrow valley, a large reservoir, and an urban setting. The results show FwDET can accurately calculate floodwater depth for diverse flooding scenarios but also leads to considerable bias in locations where the inundation extent does not align well with the DEM. In these locations, manual adjustment or higher spatial resolution input is required.