Development of quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments when the scientific data base is inadequate

The reasons for developing quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments are discussed along with a method for developing them which involves scientific judgement. In the situation considered here the regulatory needs are ahead of the science, which makes the development of the estimates on uncertainty more difficult, but not impossible. Quantitative estimates for all uncertainties involved in the estimation of risk resulting from exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water are developed and tabulated. By far the largest contribution to the uncertainty in the risk estimates for VOCs in drinking water are due to uncertainty in the extrapolation of the dose-response curve to low levels. The uncertainty due to extrapolation is on the order of 10⁴ and 10⁶. Other components of the analysis may contribute uncertainties of a few orders of magnitude. In general the largest uncertainties are in the toxicological data base and the manipulation of it needed to estimate risk. The data base and manipulations needed to estimate exposure due to VOCs in drinking water were at the more an order to magnitudes in uncertainty.     

Genetic connectivity among color morphs and Pacific archipelagos for the flame angelfish, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Centropyge loriculus</Emphasis>

Color variation is used in taxonomic classification of reef fishes, but it may not reliably indicate evolutionary divergence. In the central Pacific, there are three color morphs of the flame angelfish, Centropyge loriculus: a red morph that occurs primarily in the Hawaiian archipelago, the endemic Marquesan color morph with reduced black markings, and an orange morph that occurs throughout the rest of Oceania. The red and orange morphs co-occur at Johnston Atoll (1,300 km south of Hawai’i), but intermediate forms have not been reported. To determine whether the three color morphs represent distinct evolutionary lineages, we compared 641 base pairs of mitochondrial cytochrome b. Forty-one closely related haplotypes were observed in 116 individuals. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicated no significant genetic structure among color morphs (Φ_ST = 0.011, P = 0.147). Likewise, there was no significant pairwise structure between sampling locations, separated by up to 5,700 km, after a Bonferroni correction (Φ_ST = 0.000–0.080, P = 0.0130–0.999). Genetic studies in conjunction with larval distribution data indicate that Centropyge species are highly dispersive. While there is a strong geographic component to the distribution of color morphs in C. loriculus, we find no evidence for corresponding genetic partitioning. We do not rule out an adaptive role for color differentiation, but our data do not support emerging species.     

Dispersal Can Limit Local Plant Distribution

The ability of species to establish new populations at unoccupied sites is a critical feature in the maintenance of biological diversity, and it has taken on new importance as a result of global climate change and expected changes in species distribution. To examine the dispersal potential of plant species, seeds of four annual plant species were experimentally dispersed 40 to 600 m from existing populations in Massachusetts (U.S.A.) to 34 nearby unoccupied but apparently suitable sites. At three of these sites new populations were established that persisted for four generations and expanded slowly in area. At seven sites, a small initial population eventually died out. At the 24 other sites, new populations did not become established, indicating that the sites were in some way unsuitable, that not enough seeds arrived, or that conditions suitable for seed germination do not occur every year. These results suggest that some species may be unable to disperse naturally out of their existing ranges in response to global climate change, particularly if habitat fragmentation creates barriers to dispersal. These species may have to be assisted to reach suitable sites nearby to prevent their extinction in the wild.