A mathematical model of field population dynamics of the southern pine beetle, dendroctonus frontalis

The southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann, is a major insect pest of pines in the southern U.S.A. A population dynamic model of D. frontalis within an infestation was developed. The model is based on the integration of several component submodels that describe individual life stage processes of the beetle. The inclusion of variable forest stand density and microclimate conditions results in a model response which closely follows actual field responses. A sensitivity analysis was performed to investigate effects of weather conditions and the importance of the spatial patterns within the forest.     

Agri-environmental schemes: their role in reversing floral decline in the Brue floodplain, Somerset, UK

This paper explores whether the introduction of an agri-environmental scheme has altered the course of long-term trends in plant species abundance in the Somerset Levels and Moors Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA), UK. A semi-quantitative approach has been taken which integrates disparate but important historical datasets relating to flora and land management with more contemporary digital information. Species datasets from four time periods throughout the 20th century have been collated within a Geographic Information System and analysed with respect to ancillary data relating to elevation, under-drainage and ESA designation. Qualitative reconstruction of the historical ecology of this internationally important area of lowland wet grassland showed that a steady decline in abundance and extent of key components of the flora had already started by 1900. Analysis of historical under-drainage records dating from 1940s to 1980s showed a clear link between the length of time an area had been under-drained and the subsequent diversity of flora recorded in later surveys. In addition, the relative persistence of the rarer components of the wetland flora between surveys in 1980 and 1997 was related to the spatial pattern of under-drainage on the site since 1940. When overall species diversity was compared before and after ESA designation (1980-1997) there was some evidence of an increase in the number of species present and their spatial extent. The historical dataset provided useful contextual information with respect to species trends and allowed the interpretation of contemporary datasets to be placed within a longer timeframe. This pilot study using 18 species gives some evidence that long-established trends in species decline in the Somerset Levels and Moors ESA are starting to be reversed.     

Modelling the impacts of strategic tree plantings on salt loads and flows in the Macquarie river catchment,NSW, Australia

In Australia, problems of dryland and stream salinity have recently become the focus of a National Action Plan. In many river catchments, preliminary stream salt load and salinity targets have been set to define maximum permissible export levels in 2015. Afforestation has been proposed as a strategy for meeting these targets, although several studies suggest that widespread commercial tree plantations are likely to deliver net dis-benefits. However, the impacts on stream salt loads of more localised tree plantings in high salt yielding areas have not been quantified. In this paper we use a simple empirical model to predict the effects of various strategic and non-strategic tree planting scenarios on flows and salt loads in the mid-Macquarie catchment, New South Wales. A simple salt routing model is then used to estimate the effect of these changes on salt loads at the end-of-valley monitoring site for the Macquarie catchment. Results suggest that widespread land management interventions will be required to meet the preliminary salt load targets for this catchment. On their own, small-scale, strategic tree planting in high salt export areas of the mid-Macquarie area will not have a significant impact on salt loads at the end-of-valley monitoring site. While widespread tree plantings may reduce salt loads in the longer term, they are likely to cause streamflow losses in the shorter term. Thus, stream salinities are expected to rise initially, due to the different response times of groundwater and surface water systems to land use change.     

Using Decision Analysis to Choose Phosphorus Targets for Lake Erie

Lake Erie water quality has improved dramatically since the degraded conditions of the 1960s. Additional gains could be made, but at the expense of further investment and reductions in fishery productivity. In facing such cross-jurisdictional issues, natural resource managers in Canada and the United States must grapple with conflicting objectives and important uncertainties, while considering the priorities of the public that live in the basin. The techniques and tools of decision analysis have been used successfully to deal with such decision problems in a range of environmental settings, but infrequently in the Great Lakes. The objective of this paper is to illustrate how such techniques might be brought to bear on an important, real decision currently facing Lake Erie resource managers and stakeholders: the choice of new phosphorus loading targets for the lake. The heart of our approach is a systematic elicitation of stakeholder preferences and an investigation of the degree to which different phosphorus-loading policies might satisfy ecosystem objectives. Results show that there are potential benefits to changing the historical policy of reducing phosphorus loads in Lake Erie.     

Sorption and photolysis studies in soil and sediment of the herbicide napropamide

The influence of soil and sediment composition on sorption and photodegradation of the herbicide napropamide [N,N-diethyl-2-(1-naphthyloxy)propionamide] was investigated. Five soils and one sediment were selected for this study and the clay fractions were obtained by sedimentation. Sorption-desorption was studied by batch equilibration technique and photolysis in a photoreactor emitting within 300-450 nm wavelength with a maximum at 365 nm. Sorption increased with clay content and was not related to organic matter content. High irreversibility of sorption was related to the greater montmorillonite content. The presence of soil or sediment reduced photolysis rate due to screen effect and this process did not depend on solid composition but on particle size distribution.     

Risk perception and trust in the context of urban brownfields

Data are reported from a postal questionnaire completed by 747 residents of two urban local authority areas within which there were sites of brownfield land with significant levels of contamination. Respondents rated their perceptions of the extent to which their neighbourhood and own home were relatively vulnerable to contamination, their concern about possible effects of contamination, their satisfaction with their council in terms of consultation with residents on housing and development issues, and their trust in their council with respect to contaminated land risks. Satisfaction with, and trust in, the council was generally low in both areas, and especially so among those who perceived themselves to be more vulnerable to contamination. Nonetheless, dissatisfaction was less marked in the area where the local authority, according to background information, had pursued a more open and proactive style of risk communication and consultation with residents. The main predictors of trust, across both areas, were perceptions that the council was openly prepared to tell residents what they knew, and that the council had residents’ interests at heart. Implications are discussed for the impact of different modes of risk communication on trust.