Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

Assessment of total urban metabolism and metabolic inefficiency in an Irish city-region

This paper aims to measure product and waste flows in an Irish city-region using the principles of metabolism and mass balance. An empirical indicator to measure resource efficiency, using a ratio of waste disposal as a function of product consumption, was developed and it was found that total materials metabolic inefficiency fell by 31% from 0.13 in 1996 to 0.09 in 2002. The paper concludes by analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of this indicator and its potential application in the field of sustainable consumption and resource efficiency as well as making suggestions to improve and strengthen the indicator.     

A Novel Method to Capture and Analyze Flow in a Gross Pollutant Trap Using Image-Based Vector Visualization

A novel method is developed to capture and analyze several experimental flow regimes through a gross pollutant trap (GPT) with fully and partially blocked screens. Typical flow conditions and screen blockages are based on findings from field investigations that show a high content of organic matter in urban areas. Fluid motion of neutral buoyant particles is tracked using a high-speed camera and particle image velocimetry (PIV) software. The recorded fluid motion is visualized through an image-based, line integral convolution (LIC) algorithm, generally suitable for large computational fluid dynamics (CFD) datasets. The LIC method, a dense representation of streamlines, is found to be superior to the point-based flow visualization (e.g., hedgehog or arrow plots) in highlighting main flow features that are important for understanding litter capture and retention in the GPT. Detailed comparisons are made between the flow regimes, and the results are compared with CFD data previously obtained for fully blocked screens. The LIC technique is a useful tool for identifying flow structures in the GPT and areas that are subjected to abnormalities difficult to detect by conventional methods. The novel method is found to be useful both in the laboratory and in the field, with little preparation and cost. The enhancements and pitfalls of the LIC technique along with the experimentally captured flow field are presented and discussed.     

A note on the effectiveness of the house-arrest alternative for motivating DWI offenders to install ignition interlocks

Introduction

The effectiveness of ignition interlocks at reducing drunk driving has been limited by the ability of driving-while-intoxicated (DWI) offenders to avoid court orders to install the devices.

Methods

In a pilot program in New Mexico, four Santa Fe County judges imposed home confinement (via electronic monitoring bracelets) on offenders who claimed to have no car or no intention to drive. Interlock installation rates for Santa Fe County were compared with all other counties in New Mexico over a 2-year program and 2-year post-program period.

Results

During the two program years, 70% of the drivers convicted of DWI in Santa Fe County installed interlocks, compared to only 17% in the other counties, but when the program was terminated, the Santa Fe installation rate fell by 18.8 percentage points.

Summary

Mandating the alternative sanction of house arrest led to the highest reported interlock installation rate for DWI offenders.

Impact on Industry

Impaired driving is a substantial expense to employers, particularly when it bars driving that interferes with employment. Interlocks provide a method of protecting the public while permitting the offender to drive sober. This study was directed at increasing interlock use by DWI offenders.     

When experts disagree: the need to rethink indicator selection for assessing sustainability of agriculture

Sustainability indicators are well recognized for their potential to assess and monitor sustainable development of agricultural systems. A large number of indicators are proposed in various sustainability assessment frameworks, which raises concerns regarding the validity of approaches, usefulness and trust in such frameworks. Selecting indicators requires transparent and well-defined procedures to ensure the relevance and validity of sustainability assessments. The objective of this study, therefore, was to determine whether experts agree on which criteria are most important in the selection of indicators and indicator sets for robust sustainability assessments. Two groups of experts (Temperate Agriculture Research Network and New Zealand Sustainability Dashboard) were asked to rank the relative importance of eleven criteria for selecting individual indicators and of nine criteria for balancing a collective set of indicators. Both ranking surveys reveal a startling lack of consensus amongst experts about how best to measure agricultural sustainability and call for a radical rethink about how complementary approaches to sustainability assessments are used alongside each other to ensure a plurality of views and maximum collaboration and trust amongst stakeholders. To improve the transparency, relevance and robustness of sustainable assessments, the context of the sustainability assessment, including prioritizations of selection criteria for indicator selection, must be accounted for. A collaborative design process will enhance the acceptance of diverse values and prioritizations embedded in sustainability assessments. The process by which indicators and sustainability frameworks are established may be a much more important determinant of their success than the final shape of the assessment tools. Such an emphasis on process would make assessments more transparent, transformative and enduring.     

Perceived stressors of climate vulnerability across scales in the Savannah zone of Ghana: a participatory approach

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are confronted with climatic and non-climatic stressors. Research attention has focused on climatic stressors, such as rainfall variability, with few empirical studies exploring non-climatic stressors and how these interact with climatic stressors at multiple scales to affect food security and livelihoods. This focus on climatic factors restricts understanding of the combinations of stressors that exacerbate the vulnerability of farming households and hampers the development of holistic climate change adaptation policies. This study addresses this particular research gap by adopting a multi-scale approach to understand how climatic and non-climatic stressors vary, and interact, across three spatial scales (household, community and district levels) to influence livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farming households in the Savannah zone of northern Ghana. This study across three case study villages utilises a series of participatory tools including semi-structured interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. The incidence, importance, severity and overall risk indices for stressors are calculated at the household, community, and district levels. Results show that climatic and non-climatic stressors were perceived differently; yet, there were a number of common stressors including lack of money, high cost of farm inputs, erratic rainfall, cattle destruction of crops, limited access to markets and lack of agricultural equipment that crossed all scales. Results indicate that the gender of respondents influenced the perception and severity assessment of stressors on rural livelihoods at the community level. Findings suggest a mismatch between local and district level priorities that have implications for policy and development of agricultural and related livelihoods in rural communities. Ghana’s climate change adaptation policies need to take a more holistic approach that integrates both climatic and non-climatic factors to ensure policy coherence between national climate adaptation plans and District development plans.     

美国和五大湖双边共同关注区域的白肚燕(双色树燕)雏鸟的有机污染状况

白肚燕,又名双色树燕,栖居于五大湖流域中27个双边共同关注区域(AOCs),从2010年到2014年对其进行了污染物暴露风险评估,以协助管理者和监管者评估五大湖AOCs的污染状况。本文比较了AOCs和附近非AOCs雏鸟体内污染物浓度的差异。AOCs白肚燕雏鸟尸体中多氯联苯(PCB)和多溴联苯醚的含量分别为30%和33%,低于非AOCs的平均浓度。AOCs白肚燕雏鸟胃含物中多环芳烃(PAH)浓度和血浆中全氟化合物浓度分别为67%和64%,也低于非AOCs的平均浓度。但是与已有生殖效应记载的高PCB污染区相比,有些AOCs雏鸟尸体内的PCBs浓度只是存在小幅升高。一些AOCs食物中PAHs的浓度足够高以致引起可测量的生理响应。在AOCs中,全氟化合物全氟辛烷磺酸在血浆中的最高浓度出现在Raisin河(密歇根州,美国;几何平均数330 ng/mL),但远低于预估毒性的参考值(1 700 ng/mL)。之前有研究报道雏鸟胃含物中PAH和PCB的浓度以及尸体中PCBs的含量与沉积物中污染物的含量显著相关,从而可加强白肚燕在评估沉积物污染生物有效性方面的应用。
精选自Thomas W. Custer, Christine M. Custer, Paul M. Dummer, Diana Goldberg, J. Christian Franson, Richard A. Erickson. Organic contamination in tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nestlings at United States and binational Great Lakes areas of concern. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 36, Issue 3, pages 735–748, July 2017. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3598
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/etc.3598/full
     

Fate of caffeine in mesocosms wetland planted with Scirpus validus

Uptake, accumulation and translocation of caffeine by Scirpus validus grown in hydroponic condition were investigated. The plants were cultivated in Hoagland’s nutrient solution spiked with caffeine at concentrations of 0.5–2.0 mg L^?1. The effect of photodegradation on caffeine elimination was determined in dark controls and proved to be negligible. Removal of caffeine in mesocosms without plants showed however that biodegradation could account for about 15–19% of the caffeine lost from solutions after 3 and 7 d. Plant uptake played a significant role in caffeine elimination. Caffeine was detected in both roots and shoots of S. validus. Root concentrations of caffeine were 0.1–6.1 μg g^?1, while the concentrations for shoots were 6.4–13.7 μg g^?1. A significant (p < 0.05) positive correlation between the concentration in the root and the initial concentrations in the nutrient solution was observed. The bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) of caffeine for roots ranged from 0.2 to 3.1, while BAFs for shoots ranged from 3.2 to 16.9. Translocation from roots to shoots was the major pathway of shoot accumulation. The fraction of caffeine in the roots as a percentage of the total caffeine mass in solution was limited to 0.2–4.4% throughout the whole experiment, while shoot uptake percentage ranged from 12% to 25% for caffeine at the initial concentration of 2.0 mg L^?1 to 50–62% for caffeine at the initial concentration of 0.5 mg L^?1. However, a marked decrease in the concentration of caffeine in the shoots between d-14 and d-21 suggests that caffeine may have been catabolized in the plant tissues subsequent to plant uptake and translocation.     

Apportionment of Ambient Primary and Secondary Pollutants during a 2001 Summer Study in Pittsburgh Using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency UNMIX

Abstract

Apportionment of primary and secondary pollutants during the summer 2001 Pittsburgh Air Quality Study (PAQS) is reported. Several sites were included in PAQS, with the main site (the supersite) adjacent to the Carnegie Mellon University campus in Schenley Park. One of the additional sampling sites was located at the National Energy Technology Laboratory, located ～18 km southeast of downtown Pittsburgh. Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) mass, gas-phase volatile organic material (VOM), particulate semivolatile and nonvolatile organic material (NVOM), and ammonium sulfate were apportioned at the two sites into their primary and secondary contributions using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency UNMIX 2.3 multivariate receptor modeling and analysis software. A portion of each of these species was identified as originating from gasoline and diesel primary mobile sources. Some of the organic material was formed from local secondary transformation processes, whereas the great majority of the secondary sulfate was associated with regional transformation contributions. The results indicated that the diurnal patterns of secondary gas-phase VOM and particulate semivolatile and NVOM were not correlated with secondary ammonium sulfate contributions but were associated with separate formation pathways. These findings are consistent with the bulk of the secondary ammonium sulfate in the Pittsburgh area being the result of contributions from distant transport and, thus, decoupled from local activity involving organic pollutants in the metropolitan area.