Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: The case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.     

Genomic erosion in a demographically recovered bird species during conservation rescue

The pink pigeon (Nesoenas mayeri) is an endemic species of Mauritius that has made a remarkable recovery after a severe population bottleneck in the 1970s to early 1990s. Prior to this bottleneck, an ex situ population was established from which captive-bred individuals were released into free-living subpopulations to increase population size and genetic variation. This conservation rescue led to rapid population recovery to 400–480 individuals, and the species was twice downlisted on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. We analyzed the impacts of the bottleneck and genetic rescue on neutral genetic variation during and after population recovery (1993–2008) with restriction site-associated sequencing, microsatellite analyses, and quantitative genetic analysis of studbook data of 1112 birds from zoos in Europe and the United States. We used computer simulations to study the predicted changes in genetic variation and population viability from the past into the future. Genetic variation declined rapidly, despite the population rebound, and the effective population size was approximately an order of magnitude smaller than census size. The species carried a high genetic load of circa 15 lethal equivalents for longevity. Our computer simulations predicted continued inbreeding will likely result in increased expression of deleterious mutations (i.e., a high realized load) and severe inbreeding depression. Without continued conservation actions, it is likely that the pink pigeon will go extinct in the wild within 100 years. Conservation rescue of the pink pigeon has been instrumental in the recovery of the free-living population. However, further genetic rescue with captive-bred birds from zoos is required to recover lost variation, reduce expression of harmful deleterious variation, and prevent extinction. The use of genomics and modeling data can inform IUCN assessments of the viability and extinction risk of species, and it helps in assessments of the conservation dependency of populations.     

Kinetics of heat-assisted persulfate oxidation of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE)

The kinetics of heat-assisted persulfate oxidation of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) in aqueous solutions at various pH, temperature, oxidant concentration and ionic strength levels was studied. The MTBE degradation was found to follow a pseudo-first-order decay model. The pseudo-first-order rate constants of MTBE degradation by persulfate (31.5 mM) at pH 7.0 and ionic strength 0.11 M are approximately 0.13 x 10(-4), 0.48 x 10(-4), 2.4 x 10(-4) and 5.8 x 10(-4) S(-1) at 20, 30, 40 and 50 degrees C, respectively. Under the above reaction conditions, the reaction has an activation energy of 24.5 +/- 1.6 kcal/ mol and is influenced by temperature, oxidant concentration, pH and ionic strength. Raising the reaction temperature and persulfate concentration may significantly accelerate the MTBE degradation. However, increasing both pH (over the range of 2.5-11) and ionic strength (over the range of 0.11-0.53 M) will decrease the reaction rate. Reaction intermediates including tert-butyl formate, tert-butyl alcohol, acetone and methyl acetate were observed. These intermediate compounds were also degraded by persulfate under the experimental conditions. Additionally, MTBE degradation by persulfate in a groundwater was much slower than in phosphate-buffer solutions, most likely due to the presence of bicarbonate ions (radical scavengers) in the groundwater.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in surface sediments held in experimental mesocosms

Sediment was collected from three locations along a pollution gradient in Narragansett Bay and transplanted to controlled mesocosms. Total hydrocarbons and eleven individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were measured in these sediments over a period of 394 days. Total hydrocarbon concentrations increased in the “relatively uncontaminated”; (Rhode Island Sound) sediment that was held in the mesocosms, but did not change in the two other sediments. The concentrations of four PAHs: naphthalene, 2‐methyl naphthalene, 1‐methyl naphthalene and biphenyl, decreased in the “contaminated”; (Providence River) sediment during the experiment and the calculated half‐lives for these compounds were 287, 353, 321 and 333 days, respectively.     

Comparative study of humic acids of the mound of a wood-feeding termite and of the litter directly below in the Amazon river delta

In order to determine the role of termites in the recycling of organic matter and in humification processes, organic matter from the mound of a wood-feeding termite (Nasutitermes sp.) and from the litter directly below has been studied in secondary forest on the campus of Belem University, in Brazil. The carbon content was slightly lower in the litter (just beneath the mound) than in the mound, but nitrogen was much more abundant in the mound. As a consequence, the C/N ratio of fragmented litter total organic matter is very high, which shows that the humification process is not complete. Therefore, plant debris seemed to be more degraded in the mound than in the litter, indicating a humification gradient from mound to litter. Humic acid extracted from the mound and from the litter was compared by using elemental, E4/E6 ratio, spectroscopic (FTIR) analyses, and Sephadex gel chromatography. First, humic acids were more abundant in the mound than in the litter, showing that humification processes were more advanced in the mound than in the litter. Gel-permeation chromatography showed that the humic acids of the mound contained more low-molecular-weight fractions than those of the litter. In addition, the results of infrared spectra, E4/E6 ratio and elemental composition can confirm the fulvic character of mound material and the humic character of litter material. Therefore, the plant debris seems to follow two different humification pathways in the two environments, as long as the mound is alive.