Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot: model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty

The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania and Kenya support some of the most ancient tropical rainforest on Earth. The forests are a global priority for biodiversity conservation and provide vital resources to the Tanzanian population. Here, we make a first attempt to predict the spatial distribution of 40 EAM tree species, using generalised additive models, plot data and environmental predictor maps at sub 1 km resolution. The results of three modelling experiments are presented, investigating predictions obtained by (1) two different procedures for the stepwise selection of predictors, (2) down-weighting absence data, and (3) incorporating an autocovariate term to describe fine-scale spatial aggregation. In response to recent concerns regarding the extrapolation of model predictions beyond the restricted environmental range of training data, we also demonstrate a novel graphical tool for quantifying envelope uncertainty in restricted range niche-based models (envelope uncertainty maps). We find that even for species with very few documented occurrences useful estimates of distribution can be achieved. Initiating selection with a null model is found to be useful for explanatory purposes, while beginning with a full predictor set can over-fit the data. We show that a simple multimodel average of these two best-model predictions yields a superior compromise between generality and precision (parsimony). Down-weighting absences shifts the balance of errors in favour of higher sensitivity, reducing the number of serious mistakes (i.e., falsely predicted absences); however, response functions are more complex, exacerbating uncertainty in larger models. Spatial autocovariates help describe fine-scale patterns of occurrence and significantly improve explained deviance, though if important environmental constraints are omitted then model stability and explanatory power can be compromised. We conclude that the best modelling practice is contingent both on the intentions of the analyst (explanation or prediction) and on the quality of distribution data; generalised additive models have potential to provide valuable information for conservation in the EAMs, but methods must be carefully considered, particularly if occurrence data are scarce. Full results and details of all species models are supplied in an online Appendix.     

Pflanzenschutz: Neue Gesetze und ihr Nutzen

The debate about the revision of the EU directive 91/414 has often been characterized by unobjective criticism of the existing regulations and of the authorities involved in the regulatory procedure. This made many consumers feel uncertain and left the public with the impression that the current regulatory system for plant protection products in Europe was not safe for consumers and the environment. However, a detailed evaluation of these statements has clearly demonstrated that the current regulatory procedure is safe and recent scientific knowledge is taken into account. The risk potential calculated for aquatic and terrestrial organisms in Germany has continuously decreased since 1987. The effects and the benefits of the new regulations, which have reached a level of complexity as never before, are discussed in this context. From an industry perspective, clear legal regulations and practical implementations are essential to guarantee the transparence of the regulatory process and predictability of the outcome.     

Exploring the link between energy based taxes and economic growth

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - This paper provides empirical evidence regarding the effect of energy based taxes on economic growth. The analysis is based on a panel dataset of 31...     

Impact of Climate Change on Date Production in Tunisia

Around the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one of the major phenomena affecting agriculture. Therefore, the mode of production and crop management will have to change radically. Our objective in this article is to examine the long-run effects of climate change on date production in Tunisia using panel cointegration covering the period from 1980 to 2014 in 24 regions. The climate of Tunisia differs in our study because we find a Saharan climate in the south and a European climate in the north. The central regions are characterized by a Mediterranean climate. Our empirical results show that the effects of climate and weather variability on date production must be considered a serious threat in Tunisia. In addition, we estimate relatively negative and variable long-run effects of temperature increase and rainfall shortages across regions on date output over the last three decades.     

High overlap between traditional ecological knowledge and forest conservation found in the Bolivian Amazon

It has been suggested that traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) may play a key role in forest conservation. However, empirical studies assessing to what extent TEK is associated with forest conservation compared with other variables are rare. Furthermore, to our knowledge, the spatial overlap of TEK and forest conservation has not been evaluated at fine scales. In this paper, we address both issues through a case study with Tsimane’ Amerindians in the Bolivian Amazon. We sampled 624 households across 59 villages to estimate TEK and used remote sensing data to assess forest conservation. We ran statistical and spatial analyses to evaluate whether TEK was associated and spatially overlapped with forest conservation at the village level. We find that Tsimane’ TEK is significantly and positively associated with forest conservation although acculturation variables bear stronger and negative associations with forest conservation. We also find a very significant spatial overlap between levels of Tsimane’ TEK and forest conservation. We discuss the potential reasons underpinning our results, which provide insights that may be useful for informing policies in the realms of development, conservation, and climate. We posit that the protection of indigenous cultural systems is vital and urgent to create more effective policies in such realms.     

Wastewater treatment and public health in Nunavut: a microbial risk assessment framework for the Canadian Arctic

Wastewater management in Canadian Arctic communities is influenced by several geographical factors including climate, remoteness, population size, and local food-harvesting practices. Most communities use trucked collection services and basic treatment systems, which are capable of only low-level pathogen removal. These systems are typically reliant solely on natural environmental processes for treatment and make use of existing lagoons, wetlands, and bays. They are operated in a manner such that partially treated wastewater still containing potentially hazardous microorganisms is released into the terrestrial and aquatic environment at random times. Northern communities rely heavily on their local surroundings as a source of food, drinking water, and recreation, thus creating the possibility of human exposure to wastewater effluent. Human exposure to microbial hazards present in municipal wastewater can lead to acute gastrointestinal illness or more severe disease. Although estimating the actual disease burdens associated with wastewater exposures in Arctic communities is challenging, waterborne- and sanitation-related illness is believed to be comparatively higher than in other parts of Canada. This review offers a conceptual framework and evaluation of current knowledge to enable the first microbial risk assessment of exposure scenarios associated with food-harvesting and recreational activities in Arctic communities, where simplified wastewater systems are being operated.     

Quantitative cancer risk assessment and local mortality burden for ambient air pollution in an eastern Mediterranean City

Health risks posed by ambient air pollutants to the urban Lebanese population have not been well characterized. The aim of this study is to assess cancer risk and mortality burden of non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and particulates (PM) based on two field-sampling campaigns conducted during summer and winter seasons in Beirut. Seventy NMHCs were analyzed by TD-GC-FID. PM_2.5 elemental carbon (EC) components were examined using a Lab OC-EC aerosol Analyzer, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were analyzed by GC-MS. The US EPA fraction-based approach was used to assess non-cancer hazard and cancer risk for the hydrocarbon mixture, and the UK Committee on Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (COMEAP) guidelines were followed to determine the PM_2.5 attributable mortality burden. The average cumulative cancer risk exceeded the US EPA acceptable level (10⁻⁶) by 40-fold in the summer and 30-fold in the winter. Benzene was found to be the highest contributor to cancer risk (39–43%), followed by 1,3-butadiene (25–29%), both originating from traffic gasoline evaporation and combustion. The EC attributable average mortality fraction was 7.8–10%, while the average attributable number of deaths (AD) and years of life lost (YLL) were found to be 257–327 and 3086–3923, respectively. Our findings provide a baseline for future air monitoring programs, and for interventions aiming at reducing cancer risk in this population.

     

Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis

Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of ‘Continental Europe’. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50–100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40–50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.     

Markets and climate are driving rapid change in farming practices in Savannah West Africa

Agricultural practices have constantly changed in West Africa, and understanding the factors that have driven the changes may help guide strategies to promote sustainable agriculture in the region. To contribute to such efforts, this paper analyzes drivers of change in farming practices in the region using data obtained from surveys of 700 farming households in five countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger and Senegal). The results showed that farmers have adopted various practices in response to the challenges they have faced during the last decade. A series of logit models showed that most changes farmers made to their practices are undertaken for multiple reasons. Land use and management changes including expanding farmed areas and using mineral fertilization and manure are positively related to perceived changes in the climate, such as more erratic rainfall. Planting new varieties, introducing new crops, crop rotation, expanding farmed area and using pesticides are positively associated with new market opportunities. Farm practices that require relatively high financial investment such as use of pesticides, drought-tolerant varieties and improved seeds were positively associated with the provision of technical and financial support for farmers through development projects and policies. Changes in markets and climate are both helping to promote needed changes in farming practices in West Africa. Therefore, policies that foster the development of markets for agricultural products, and improved weather- and climate-related information linked to knowledge of appropriate agricultural innovations in different environments are needed.     

Ecotoxicological risks of the abandoned F–Ba–Pb–Zn mining area of Osor (Spain)

Due to its potential toxic properties, metal mobilization is of major concern in areas surrounding Pb–Zn mines. In the present study, metal contents and toxicity of soils, aqueous extracts from soils and mine drainage waters from an abandoned F–Ba–Pb–Zn mining area in Osor (Girona, NE Spain) were evaluated through chemical extractions and ecotoxicity bioassays. Toxicity assessment in the terrestrial compartment included lethal and sublethal endpoints on earthworms Eisenia fetida, arthropods Folsomia candida and several plant species, whereas aquatic tests involved bacteria Vibrio fischeri, microalgae Raphidocelis subcapitata and crustaceans Daphnia magna. Total concentrations of Ba (250–5110 mg kg^?1), Pb (940 to >5000 mg kg^?1) and Zn (2370–11,300 mg kg^?1) in soils exceeded intervention values to protect human health. Risks for the aquatic compartment were identified in the release of drainage waters and in the potential leaching and runoff of metals from contaminated soils, with Cd (1.98–9.15 µg L^?1), Pb (2.11–326 µg L^?1) and Zn (280–2900 µg L^?1) concentrations in filtered water samples surpassing US EPA Water Quality Criteria (2016a, b). Terrestrial ecotoxicity tests were in accordance with metal quantifications and identified the most polluted soil as the most toxic. Avoidance and reproduction tests with earthworms showed the highest sensitivity to metal contamination. Aquatic bioassays performed in aqueous extracts from soils confirmed the results from terrestrial tests and also detected toxic effects caused by the mine drainage waters. Algal growth inhibition was the most sensitive aquatic endpoint. In view of the results, the application of a containment or remediative procedure in the area is encouraged.