EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

“R1-R4” AND “BOISED” SEDIMENT PREDICTION MODEL TESTS USING FOREST ROADS IN GRANITICS1

ABSTRACT: Erosion and sedimentation data from research watersheds in the Silver Creek Study Area in central Idaho were used to test the prediction of logging road erosion using the R1-R4 sediment yield model, and sediment delivery using the “BOISED” sediment yield prediction model. Three small watersheds were instrumented and monitored such that erosion from newly constructed roads and sediment delivery to the mouths of the watersheds could be measured for four years following road construction. The errors for annual surface erosion predictions for the two standard road tests ranged from +31.2 t/ha/yr (+15 percent) to -30.3 t/ha/yr (-63 percent) with an average of zero t/ha/yr and a standard deviation of the differences of 18.7 t/ha/yr. The annual prediction errors for the three watershed scale tests had a greater range from -40.8 t/ha/yr (-70 percent) to +65.3 t/ha/yr (+38 percent) with a mean of -1.9 t/ha/yr and a standard deviation of the differences of 25.2 t/ha/yr. Sediment yields predicted by BOISED (watershed scale tests) were consistently greater (average of 2.5 times) than measured sediment yields. Hillslope sediment delivery coefficients in BOISED appear to be overly conservative to account for average site conditions and road locations, and thus over-predict sediment delivery. Mass erosion predictions from BOISED appear to predict volume well (465 tonnes actual versus 710 tonnes predicted, or a 35 percent difference) over 15 to 20 years, however mass wasting is more episodic than the model predicts.     

Batch sorption dynamics and equilibrium for the removal of lead ions from aqueous phase using activated carbon developed from coffee residue activated with zinc chloride

Lignocellulosic materials are good precursors for the production of activated carbon. In this work, coffee residue has been used as raw material in the preparation of powder activated carbon by the method of chemical activation with zinc chloride for the sorption of Pb(II) from dilute aqueous solutions.The influence of impregnation ratio (ZnCl₂/coffee residue) on the physical and chemical properties of the prepared carbons was studied in order to optimize this parameter. The optimum experimental condition for preparing predominantly microporous activated carbons with high pore surface area (890 m²/g) and micropore volume (0.772 cm³/g) is an impregnation ratio of 100%. The developed activated carbon shows substantial capability to sorb lead(II) ions from aqueous solutions and for relative impregnation ratios of 75 and 100%, the maximum uptake is practically the same. Thus, 75% represents the optimal impregnation ratio.Batch experiments were conducted to study the effects of the main parameters such as contact time, initial concentration of Pb(II), solution pH, ionic strength and temperature. The maximum uptake of lead(II) at 25 °C was about 63 mg/g of adsorbent at pH 5.8, initial Pb(II) concentration of 10 mg/L, agitation speed of 200 rpm and ionic strength of 0.005 M. The kinetic data were fitted to the models of pseudo-first order and pseudo-second order, and follow closely the pseudo-second order model. Equilibrium sorption isotherms of Pb(II) were analyzed by the Langmuir, Freundlich and Temkin isotherm models. The Freundlich model gives a better fit than the others.Results from this study suggest that activated carbon produced from coffee residue is an effective adsorbent for the removal of lead from aqueous solutions and that ZnCl₂ is a suitable activating agent for the preparation of high-porosity carbons.     

Relationships between street characteristics and perceived attractiveness for walking reported by elderly people

Walking is important for the health of elderly people. Previous studies have found a relationship between neighbourhood characteristics, physical activity and related health aspects. The multivariate linear regression model presented here describes the relationships between the perceived attractiveness of streets for walking along and (physical) street characteristics. Two hundred and eighty-eight independently living elderly people (between 55 and 80 years old) participated in the study. Street characteristics were assessed along homogeneous street subsections defined as ‘links’. Positively related to perceived attractiveness of links were the following street characteristics: slopes and/or stairs, zebra crossings, trees along the route, front gardens, bus and tram stops, shops, business buildings, catering establishments, passing through parks or the city centre, and traffic volume. Litter on the street, high-rise buildings, and neighbourhood density of dwellings were negatively related to perceived link attractiveness. Overall, the results suggest that three main aspects affect perceived attractiveness of streets for walking, namely tidiness of the street, its scenic value and the presence of activity or other people along the street. The results are discussed within the context of these three aspects.     

Exploratory Analysis of the Winter Chemistry of Five Lakes on the North Slope of Alaska1

Abstract: Lakes are important water resources on the North Slope of Alaska. Freshwater is required for oilfield production as well as exploration, which occurs largely on ice roads and pads. Since most North Slope lakes are shallow, the quantity and quality of the water under ice at the end of winter are important environmental management issues. Currently, water‐use permits are a function of the presence of overwintering fish populations, and their sensitivity to low oxygen concentrations. Sampling of five North Slope lakes during the winter of 2004‐2005 shed some light on the winter chemistry of four lakes that were used as water supplies and one undisturbed lake. Field analysis was conducted for oxygen, conductivity, pH, and temperature throughout the lake depth, as well as ice thickness and water depth. Water samples were retrieved from the lakes and analyzed for Na, Ca, K, Mg, Fe, dissolved‐organic carbon, and alkalinity in the laboratory. Lake properties, rather than pumping, were the best predictors of oxygen depletion, with the highest dissolved‐oxygen levels maintained in the lake with the lowest concentration of constituents. Volume weighted mean dissolved‐oxygen concentrations ranged from 4 to 94% of saturation in March. Dissolved oxygen and specific conductance data suggested that the lakes began to refresh in May.     

Land use and solid waste generation in Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria

Solid waste collection services in Ilorin, Nigeria are shown to be unsatisfactory. The poor service is related to rapid population growth, insufficient data and inconsistent government policies. Surveys have been conducted to assess the quantities and types of solid waste and to show how these, in part, vary according to the nature of the land use and the properties being served. Suggestions for an improved service are offered.     

Citizen Advisory Groups in Remedial Action Planning: Paper Tiger or Key to Success?

In accordance with the Great Lakes Water Quality agreement and the Great Lakes Critical Protections Act, the Great Lakes States have developed (or are developing) remedial action plans (RAPs) for severely degraded areas of concern (AOCs). To provide citizen input into the planning process, state environmental agencies have established citizens' advisory groups (CAGs) for each AOC. These CAGs have been hailed as the key to RAP success, yet little is known about their role in the planning process. In this paper, we examine the constitution, organization and activities of CAGs in three Lake Michigan AOCs by comparing CAGs to municipal planning commissions, citizen advisory commissions and councils of government. We find that CAGs, like other advisory bodies, can provide public input into the planning process, foster communication between government agencies and special interest groups, and facilitate intergovernmental co-ordination. Also like other advisory bodies, however, CAGs can fail to represent all constituencies in the AOCs, have limited influence on agencies plans and activities, and lack the authority to assure the co-operation of local governments.     

Understanding Dispute Resolution Processes for American and Australian Public Wildlands: Towards a Conceptual Framework for Managers

/ The last 20 years have seen the successful application of environmental dispute resolution processes, where people voluntarily negotiate toward mutually acceptable solutions, to many environmental disputes. The effects of contextual influences, such as the number of parties and presence of deadlines, on outcomes are known and frequently described. Less well documented and understood are the interaction processes themselves. This paper draws on two case studies to develop a conceptual framework describing these processes. Disputes associated with management planning for the Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex in the United States and Fitzgerald River National Park in Australia provided the cases. The conceptual framework derived had eight sequential stages: (1) joint definition of problems, (2) uncertainty about what to do, (3) agreement on group procedures, (4) realization of interdependence, (5) enthusiasm about collective possibilities, (6) commitment to working together, (7) consolidation of the group, and (8) implementation of a resolution. The framework provides new insights for managers of public wildlands, especially the need for varying but ongoing managerial involvement in dispute resolution processes. High levels of involvement and influence are essential at the beginning in problem definition and group procedure design and at the end in implementing resolutions. Conversely, agency members must be willing to exert less influence, while still being involved and committed to collective purposes, during the middle stages. Also apparent from the conceptual framework is the importance of developing shared understandings and of allowing sufficient time for understanding to develop, if successful resolution is to be achieved. KEY WORDS: Environmental dispute resolution; Conceptual framework; Public wildlands; Shared understandings; Australia     

Conceptualizing the human use of wild edible herbs for conservation in South African communal areas

The importance of wild edible herbaceous species to resource poor households in most rural economies within savannas has been little studied. This is because most of the herbs grow in impoverished species communities and lands, often referred to as 'marginal lands'. The aim of this paper is to conceptualize how the economics of wild edible herbs to households can be used to add value to total livelihoods and conservation within traditional communal areas of South Africa. Analysis of the economics of the consumption of wild edible herbs in Thorndale (Bushbuckridge district) of the Limpopo province is presented. The majority of households consumed wild edible herbs, averaging 15.4 kg dried weight per household per year and valued at $167 per household. The herbs were mostly harvested from uncultivated areas of farms, and rangelands. There was little correlation between household characteristics and the dependence on wild herbs for food. The local people noted a decline in the availability of the species, although not much is known about attempts to cultivate them. The only reasons attributed to the decline were nutrient poor soils and insufficient rains. With this background, developing a local strategy to sustain the species through cultivation by households was found to be feasible. A multiple-use system for the herbs, their improvement and value addition towards commercialization and increased household usage may result in wider acceptance and subsequent cultivation. Species diversity will be enhanced whilst conserving the land on which they grow. This multiple use system may include species roles in soil and water conservation.