Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

Correction to: Opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea by improving manure use efficiency in agriculture

While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54–82% of the N reductions targets (28–43 kt N reduction) and 38–64% P reduction targets (4–6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.

     

美国和五大湖双边共同关注区域的白肚燕(双色树燕)雏鸟的有机污染状况

白肚燕,又名双色树燕,栖居于五大湖流域中27个双边共同关注区域(AOCs),从2010年到2014年对其进行了污染物暴露风险评估,以协助管理者和监管者评估五大湖AOCs的污染状况。本文比较了AOCs和附近非AOCs雏鸟体内污染物浓度的差异。AOCs白肚燕雏鸟尸体中多氯联苯(PCB)和多溴联苯醚的含量分别为30%和33%,低于非AOCs的平均浓度。AOCs白肚燕雏鸟胃含物中多环芳烃(PAH)浓度和血浆中全氟化合物浓度分别为67%和64%,也低于非AOCs的平均浓度。但是与已有生殖效应记载的高PCB污染区相比,有些AOCs雏鸟尸体内的PCBs浓度只是存在小幅升高。一些AOCs食物中PAHs的浓度足够高以致引起可测量的生理响应。在AOCs中,全氟化合物全氟辛烷磺酸在血浆中的最高浓度出现在Raisin河(密歇根州,美国;几何平均数330 ng/mL),但远低于预估毒性的参考值(1 700 ng/mL)。之前有研究报道雏鸟胃含物中PAH和PCB的浓度以及尸体中PCBs的含量与沉积物中污染物的含量显著相关,从而可加强白肚燕在评估沉积物污染生物有效性方面的应用。
精选自Thomas W. Custer, Christine M. Custer, Paul M. Dummer, Diana Goldberg, J. Christian Franson, Richard A. Erickson. Organic contamination in tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nestlings at United States and binational Great Lakes areas of concern. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 36, Issue 3, pages 735–748, July 2017. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3598
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/etc.3598/full
     

The development of a method to determine the burden of climate change on different health outcomes at a local scale: a case study in Osaka Prefecture,Japan

Climate change impacts human health in a variety of ways. Variables including the climate-related risk factor, the health outcome and location all determine the nature and extent of the impact. The existence of different pathways and endpoints presents a problem for quantifying and comparing impacts. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) provides a common scale, whereby the impact of climate change on both acute and chronic health outcomes can be compared. This study presents a methodology to calculate the impact of climate change on human health at a local scale, using cardiovascular disease (CVD) and meteorological disaster-related injuries (DRIs) in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, as applied case studies. An additional very fine scale assessment of CVD conducted at the neighbourhood level to demonstrate the importance of conducting risk assessments at a local level. The comparative results calculated the impact of climate change in 2050 to be 16.866 DALY/100,000 population for CVD and 0.645 DALY/100,000 for meteorological DRIs. The actual impact of climate change by 2050 on CVD is judged to be higher, although the relative risk was projected to be lower (1.006, compared to 1.263 for meteorological DRIs). The fine scale assessment revealed the variations in the projected impact of climate change on CVD for all administrative zones in Osaka Prefecture. The range of impacts varied from 0 to 114.29 DALY/100,000. The results demonstrate the applicability of using DALY to quantify the impact of climate change on different health outcomes, using a transferable methodology, and provide information that enables evidence-based prioritisation of climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale.     

Are we planning for sustainable disaster recovery? Evaluating recovery plans after the Wenchuan earthquake

This article examines local recovery plans that were created in response to the Wenchuan earthquake and then suggests ways that planners can better apply the concept of sustainability to the recovery process. We utilize a plan evaluation protocol to analyze 16 recovery plans in counties and towns that were severely affected by the earthquake. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with public officials and planners, with the qualitative data gleaned from these interviews being used to supplement the plan quality assessment. The results reveal that local recovery plans do not appear to have incorporated sufficiently the concepts of sustainability. We conclude the paper with the following recommendations: emphasizing sustainability as a policy priority during vision and goal development; developing solid databases and planning techniques; designing a diversified set of regulatory- and incentive-based policy tools suitable for local governments; enhancing social and institutional learning; and further integrating multi-level and interagency governmental units.     

Anticipatory capacity in response to global change across an extreme elevation gradient in the Ica Basin,Peru

Regional Environmental Change - Mountainous areas with extreme elevation gradients and corresponding ranges of biophysical and socioeconomic conditions are highly vulnerable to global change. We...     

Elite cues,media coverage,and public concern: an integrated path analysis of public opinion on climate change, 2001–2013

To analyze the factors affecting US public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2013, data from 74 separate surveys are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. Five factors should account for changes in levels of concern: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy. Structural equation modeling indicates that elite cues, movement advocacy efforts, weather, and structural economic factors influence the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, it is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Promulgation to the public of scientific information on climate change has no effect. Information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.     

Metal-contaminated potato crops and potential human health risk in Bolivian mining highlands

This study assessed metals in irrigation water, soil and potato crops impacted by mining discharges, as well as potential human health risk in the high desert near the historic mining center of Potosí, Bolivia. Metal concentrations were compared with international concentration limit guidelines. In addition, an ingested average daily dose and minimum risk level were used to determine the hazard quotient from potato consumption for adults and children. Irrigation water maximum concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn in mining-impacted sites were elevated 20- to 1100-fold above international concentration limit guidelines. Agricultural soils contained total metal concentrations of As, Cd, Pb and Zn that exceeded concentration limits in agricultural soil guidelines by 22-, 9-, 3- and 12-fold, respectively. Potato tubers in mining-impacted sites had maximum concentrations of As, Cd, Pb and Zn that exceeded concentration limits in commercially sold vegetables by 9-, 10-, 16- and fourfold, respectively. Using conservative assumptions, hazard quotients (HQ) for potatoes alone were elevated for As, Cd and Pb among children (range 1.1–71.8), in nearly all of the mining-impacted areas; and for As and Cd among adults (range 1.2–34.2) in nearly all of the mining-impacted areas. Only one mining-impacted area had a Pb adult HQ for potatoes above 1 for adults. Toxic trace elements in a major regional dietary staple may be a greater concern than previously appreciated. Considering the multitude of other metal exposure routes in this region, it is likely that total HQ values for these metals may be substantially higher than our estimates.     

Why social values cannot be changed for the sake of conservation

The hope for creating widespread change in social values has endured among conservation professionals since early calls by Aldo Leopold for a “land ethic.” However, there has been little serious attention in conservation to the fields of investigation that address values, how they are formed, and how they change. We introduce a social–ecological systems conceptual approach in which values are seen not only as motivational goals people hold but also as ideas that are deeply embedded in society's material culture, collective behaviors, traditions, and institutions. Values define and bind groups, organizations, and societies; serve an adaptive role; and are typically stable across generations. When abrupt value changes occur, they are in response to substantial alterations in the social–ecological context. Such changes build on prior value structures and do not result in complete replacement. Given this understanding of values, we conclude that deliberate efforts to orchestrate value shifts for conservation are unlikely to be effective. Instead, there is an urgent need for research on values with a multilevel and dynamic view that can inform innovative conservation strategies for working within existing value structures. New directions facilitated by a systems approach will enhance understanding of the role values play in shaping conservation challenges and improve management of the human component of conservation.     

Flow‐Biology Relationships Based on Fish Habitat Guilds in North Carolina

The health of freshwater biota is dependent on streamflow, yet identification of the flow regimes required to maintain ecological integrity remains challenging to states in the United States seeking to establish ecological flows. We tested the relationship between decreases in streamflow and Shannon‐Weaver diversity index of fish species for four flow‐based habitat guilds: riffle, riffle‐run, pool‐run, and pool in North Carolina. We found species that prefer shallow habitats, such as riffles and riffle‐runs were the most sensitive to decreases in streamflow; whereas no significant relationships were found for pool or pool‐run species. The sensitivity to decreases in streamflow was greatest during summer and fall, when streams are naturally lower. When all fish habitat guilds were included in the assessment of flow‐biology relationships, there were no significant relationships to decreases in streamflow. As the sensitivity of fish to reductions in streamflow is not constant across habitat guilds, combining all fish species together for flow‐biology analyses may greatly underestimate the response of fish species to decreases in flow and should be acknowledged when establishing ecological flows.