Optimal investment policies with exhaustible resources: An information-based model

An information-based model of the “optimal control” type is developed using concepts from information theory to explore the dynamics of fossil resource exhaustion and the phenomenon of substitution by other forms of capital and technological knowledge. All exhaustible resources stocks and forms of capital (and knowledge) are taken to be equivalent to forms of information in the physical sense. It is shown that, with optimal policies, the planning period, or cycle, has several distinct phases, with different optimal investment patterns. The model has two important qualitative implications: (1) economic growth rates are inherently discontinuous and (2) the model predicts an evolutionary structural change, viz., the creation of a new sector in response to the progressive exhaustion (or obsolescence) of previously essential resources or capital stocks. A multiperiod extension is suggested, leading to a tentative explanation for the Kondratieff long-wave phenomenon.     

Uncommon diversity in developmental mode and larval form in the genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Macrophiothrix</Emphasis> (Echinodermata: Ophiuroidea)

Development mode in the ophiuroid genus Macrophiothrix includes an unusual diversity of planktonic larval forms and feeding types. The modes of development for seven congeners that coexist in coral reef habitats at Lizard Island, Australia were compared using larvae generated from crosses over several reproductive seasons from 1999 to 2003. Three species (Macrophiothrix koehleri Clark, Macrophiothrix longipeda Lamarck, Macrophiothrix lorioli Clark) develop from small eggs (<170 μm) into typical obligately feeding planktonic (planktotrophic) pluteus larvae with four larval arm pairs. The remaining four species develop from larger eggs (≥230 μm) into either facultatively-feeding or non-feeding (lecithotrophic) larval forms. The facultative planktotroph (Macrophiothrix rhabdota Clark) retains the ability to digest and benefit from food but does not require particulate food to complete metamorphosis. Among the lecithotrophic species, Macrophiothrix caenosa Hoggett retains the pluteus morphology with four pairs of larval arms, but is incapable of feeding, depending instead on maternal provisions for larval development. The remaining two lecithotrophs have simplified larval morphologies with only a single pair of full length (Macrophiothrix nereidina Lamarck) or highly reduced (Macrophiothrix belli Doderlein) larval arms and no functional mouth or gut. This genus includes the first example of facultative planktotrophy in ophiuroids, the first example in echinoderms of a complete pluteus morphology retained by a lecithotrophic larva, and three degrees of morphological simplification among lecithotrophic larval forms. Egg volume varies 20-fold among species and is related to variation in feeding mode, larval form, and development time, as predicted for the transition from planktotrophic to lecithotrophic development.     

The application of adaptive cluster sampling for rare subtidal macroalgae

Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) is a targeting sampling method that provides unbiased abundance estimators for populations of rare species that may be inadequately sampled with simple random sampling (SRS). ACS has been used successfully to estimate abundances of rockfish and sardine larvae from shipboard surveys. In this study, we describe the application of ACS for subtidal macroalgae. Using SCUBA, we measured abundances of Codium mamillosum, C. pomoides, and Halimeda cuneata at three islands and two levels of wave exposure. The three species were relatively patchy and could be sampled with ACS at one site per dive. Their distributions differed among islands and with exposure to wave energy, with H. cuneata found at only one island. ACS is a useful tool for understanding the spatial distribution and abundance of populations of rare benthic species, but, as was the case in this study, may not be as efficient as sampling with SRS with comparable replication.     

Tail size and female choice in the guppy (Poecilia reticulata)

Summary Under laboratory conditions, female guppies demonstrate a clear preference for males with larger tails, and this preference translates into enhanced reproductive fitness for these males. Females also prefer males with higher display rates, a behavior which appears to be linked to tail size, but which can be experimentally disassociated. This appears to be a case of female-choice sexual selection.     

Should heterogeneity be the basis for conservation? Grassland bird response to fire and grazing.

In tallgrass prairie, disturbances such as grazing and fire can generate patchiness across the landscape, contributing to a shifting mosaic that presumably enhances biodiversity. Grassland birds evolved within the context of this shifting mosaic, with some species restricted to one or two patch types created under spatially and temporally distinct disturbance regimes. Thus, management-driven reductions in heterogeneity may be partly responsible for declines in numbers of grassland birds. We experimentally altered spatial heterogeneity of vegetation structure within a tallgrass prairie by varying the spatial and temporal extent of fire and by allowing grazing animals to move freely among burned and unburned patches (patch treatment). We contrasted this disturbance regime with traditional agricultural management of the region that promotes homogeneity (traditional treatment). We monitored grassland bird abundance during the breeding seasons of 2001-2003 to determine the influence of altered spatial heterogeneity on the grassland bird community. Focal disturbances of patch burning and grazing that shifted through the landscape over several years resulted in a more heterogeneous pattern of vegetation than uniform application of fire and grazing. Greater spatial heterogeneity in vegetation provided greater variability in the grassland bird community. Some bird species occurred in greatest abundance within focally disturbed patches, while others occurred in relatively undisturbed patches in our patch treatment. Henslow's Sparrow, a declining species, occurred only within the patch treatment. Upland Sandpiper and some other species were more abundant on recently disturbed patches within the same treatment. The patch burn treatment created the entire gradient of vegetation structure required to maintain a suite of grassland bird species that differ in habitat preferences. Our study demonstrated that increasing spatial and temporal heterogeneity of disturbance in grasslands increases variability in vegetation structure that results in greater variability at higher trophic levels. Thus, management that creates a shifting mosaic using spatially and temporally discrete disturbances in grasslands can be a useful tool in conservation. In the case of North American tallgrass prairie, discrete fires that capitalize on preferential grazing behavior of large ungulates promote a shifting mosaic of habitat types that maintain biodiversity and agricultural productivity.     

Some statistical and conceptual issues in the detection of low-level environmental pollutants

With increasing concern over chemicals that are potential health hazards at low levels, determination of limits of detection have undergone considerable scrutiny. Most traditional detection limit estimators suffer from extensive statistical and/or conceptual limitations. In this paper, traditional detection limit estimators are described and critically evaluated. Using the terminology of Currie (1968), methods are categorized into decision limits versus detection limits. The methods are further categorized into single concentration design versus calibration design methodologies. While the single concentration design methods are useful for fixing ideas and clarifying definitions, they are shown to be extremely limited in practice since dependence of variability on concentration can neither be estimated or incorporated. Calibration-based detection limit estimators are described, compared and contrasted. Generalizations to non-constant variance, multiple future detection decisions and simultaneous control of Type I and II errors are provided. The various calibration-based methods are illustrated using real data and experimental design issues for detection limit studies discussed.     

Subordinate males are more likely to help if unrelated to the breeding female in cooperatively breeding white-browed scrubwrens

Subordinates in communally breeding groups of birds usually help to provision nestlings, but in some species helping-at-the-nest is facultative. In species in which groups usually contain relatives, subordinates either always feed young or are more likely to do so when breeding dominants are close relatives, suggesting that benefits of helping collateral kin are important. In other species, adult group members are unrelated to each other and males may only feed young if they have gained paternity, showing that cooperation is related to the mating system. The white-browed scrubwren, Sericornis frontalis, is a communally breeding species in which most groups consist of a simple pair or a dominant pair with a subordinate male. Subordinate males either fed nestlings in a given nest at a rate comparable to the dominants, or did not feed them at all. Breeding groups usually formed through natal philopatry of males, so that about 80% of subordinates were closely related to one or both members of the dominant pair. However, because of death and dispersal, 54% of subordinates were unrelated to the resident female. Although subordinates with their mother fed nestlings in 48% of cases, they fed offspring in 75% of cases if their mother had been replaced by an unrelated female, suggesting that their decision to help is influenced by the opportunity to mate with the female. Supporting this conclusion, relatedness to the dominant male did not affect subordinate behaviour, and genetic studies showed that subordinates often gained paternity if unrelated to the female. Thus, paradoxically, provisioning nestlings is related to the opportunity for mating in a society in which there is natal philopatry and subordinates are usually related to one or both members of the dominant pair. Received: 25 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 1 May 1997     

Decentralized regulation of a common property renewable resource industry with irreversible investment

The effectiveness of output controls for rationalizing a common property renewable resource has been called into question by the theoretical work of J. R. Gould [Economica, Nov., 383–402 (1972)]. A proper examination of this question requires an intertemporal analysis, one that takes into account that asymmetries between persistent factors of production (“immaleable capital”) and factors that are instantaneously consumed (“labor” or ldharvest effort”). We present here a nonlinear intertemporal model of a renewable resource industry, under conditions of irreversible capital investment, and undertake to analyze its dynamics, both at open access and under centralized optimal management. We then examine the theoretical possibility of decentralized regulation by Pigouvian taxes, and reconsider the proposition of Gould.