Sperm traits in the quacking frog (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crinia georgiana</Emphasis>), a species with plastic alternative mating tactics

In species where males use alternative reproductive tactics and male phenotypes are confronted with different risks of sperm competition, theory predicts that between-male-type differences in sperm expenditure may evolve. In the frog Crinia georgiana big males can monopolize females, whereas small males often engage in polyandrous matings. Consequently, big males may experience a lower risk of sperm competition than do small males. We tested if the predictions from theoretical models can be applied to the mating system of C. georgiana. Our results showed that small males do not have larger testes relative to their body size compared to their larger counterparts and that the efficiency with which sperm number, size, motility, and longevity are produced by the testes does not differ between small and large males in the predicted way. These results are not in alignment with predictions from a loaded raffle model of sperm competition on sperm expenditure in males with alternative phenotypes. The plasticity in mating tactics used by C. georgiana males and a high intraseasonal variation in male densities may have prevented the evolution of enhanced sperm performance in smaller males. A fair raffle in the sperm competition game played by C. georgiana males could also explain the observed patterns in sperm traits. Future investigations determining the parameters responsible for the deviation from theoretical predictions in this system will test the degree to which current theoretical models can indeed be applied to species with plastic reproductive tactics.     

A comparison of rapid and conventional measures of indicator bacteria as predictors of waterborne protozoan pathogen presence and density

E. coli and enterococci in recreational waters are monitored as indicators of fecal contamination, pathogen presence, and health risk. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) tests for fecal indicator bacteria can provide beach managers with same-day information about water quality, unlike culture methods which provide that information the following day. The abilities of qPCR measurements of indicator bacteria, as compared to culture measurements of indicator bacteria, as predictors of pathogen presence or density in surface waters are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to make such comparisons between water samples collected from Chicago area surface waters, including rivers, inland lakes, Lake Michigan, and the Chicago Area Waterways System, which is dominated by wastewater effluent. A total of 294 twenty-litre samples were collected and analyzed for Giardia and Cryptosporidium. qPCR and membrane filtration methods were used to quantify E. coli and enterococci. Correlation, logistic regression, and zero-inflated Poisson modeling were utilized to evaluate associations between indicators and parasites. qPCR and culture measures of the indicator bacteria were similar in their ability to predict parasite presence and density. Correlations between parasites and indicators were generally stronger at waters not dominated by effluent. Associations between indicator density and Giarida presence were observed more consistently than between indicator density and Cryptosporidium presence. Associations between enterococci and parasites were generally stronger than associations between E. coli and parasites. The use of qPCR monitoring in our setting would generate more timely results without compromising the ability to predict parasite presence or density.     

A practical method for small area population estimation

Estimating small area populations requires a compromise between precision and rigour, and resource input. Gloucestershire County Council have developed a method for making annual Parish and Ward estimates which the authors claim combines robustness, economy and simplicity with a degree of rigour, using available data sources. The method is described, and an indication of its accuracy given using the 1981 Census data.     

户外测试检验加速测试

探讨了加速老化测试存在的问题,阐述了户外暴露测试的重要性,指出应该利用户外暴露测试来检验加速老化。使用正确的测试程序,户外暴露测试可以在较短的时间内获得较好的测试结果。采用正确的测试设计、恰当的评估方法、可靠的统计分析及应用参照样品等,可使测试者确定加速程度及加速测试与户外暴露测试的相关系数,以确保加速测试结果的正确性。     

Reforming the CDM for sustainable development: lessons learned and policy futures

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has successfully demonstrated that market-based mechanisms can achieve some cost effective emissions reductions in developing countries. However the distribution of CDM projects has been extremely uneven across countries and regions, and a few technologies and sectors have dominated the early stages of CDM experience. This has caused some to question whether the CDM has fallen short of its potential in contributing to sustainable development. We review the broad patterns of CDM project approvals and evaluate 10 CDM projects according to their sustainability benefits. The difficulty of defining “sustainable development” and the process of defining criteria by individual non-Annex 1 governments has meant that sustainable development concerns have been marginalized in some countries. Given these observed limitations, we present possible CDM policy futures, focusing on the main proposals for a post-2012 climate regime. Five options for enhancing the sustainable development benefits in the CDM are discussed, including proactive approaches to favour eligibility of emission reduction projects which ensure such co-benefits.     

How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts

Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather‐related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision‐making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national‐level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.