Validation of the operational emergency response model at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute using data from etex and the chernobyl accident

The Eulerian atmospheric tracer transport model MATCH (Multiscale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry model) has been extended with a Lagrangian particle model treating the initial dispersion of pollutants from point sources. The model has been implemented at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in an emergency response system for nuclear accidents and can be activated on short notice to provide forecast concentration and deposition fields.The model has been used to simulate the transport of the inert tracer released during the ETEX experiment and the transport and deposition of ¹³⁷Cs from the Chernobyl accident. Visual inspection of the results as well as statistical analysis shows that the extent, time of arrival and duration of the tracer cloud, is in good agreement with the observations for both cases, with a tendency towards over-prediction for the first ETEX release. For the Chernobyl case the simulated deposition pattern over Scandinavia and over Europe as a whole agrees with observations when observed precipitation is used in the simulation. When model calculated precipitation is used, the quality of the simulation is reduced significantly and the model fails to predict major features of the observed deposition field.     

Sustainability and the primary extraction industries: theories and practice

This paper reflects on how sustainability is being interpreted both theoretically and in practice for the primary extraction industries. Two contrasting perspectives can be adopted: one states that continued extraction of non-renewable resources is a necessary part of sustainable development, whilst the other states that extraction of these resources must be greatly reduced or even eliminated. It is shown that these different approaches can be traced back to underlying, often unarticulated, assumptions about the acceptability of trade-offs between different societal goals; attitudes towards uncertainties in scientific analysis and the reliability of management systems; and the perceived appropriateness of system boundaries at different conceptual scales. These assumptions are founded in the self-perception of organisations and individuals about their roles in society, and the cultural context within which these organisations and individuals define their raison d'être.     

Effects of Pollinator Loss on Endemic New Zealand Mistletoes (Loranthaceae)

Abstract: The endemic mistletoes Peraxilla colensoi and P. tetrapetala (Loranthaceae) have declined considerably in New Zealand since 1840, reputedly because of introduced herbivores but coincident with a major decline in native bird densities. We show that at two South Island sites ( Craigieburn and Ohau) there are too few bird pollinators visiting the flowers to allow full fruit set. We studied pollination rates in P. colensoi at Wakefield and P. tetrapetala at Craigieburn over four flowering seasons and P. tetrapetala in one season at Ohau. Supplemental hand pollination increased fruit production 1.25–5.3 times at Craigieburn and Ohau but not at Wakefield. Excluding birds by covering mistletoes with mesh bags decreased fruit set significantly at Wakefield but had little effect at Craigieburn and Ohau. Bellbirds ( Anthornis melanura ) and Tuis (   Prosthemadera novaeseelandiae ) visited flowers significantly more often at Wakefield than at Craigieburn. A lack of pollen tubes in the style, not self-incompatibility or resource shortage, caused the low fruit production in unmanipulated flowers at Craigieburn. Thus, at the two P. tetrapetala sites (Craigieburn and Ohau) fruit set was chronically pollen limited, whereas P. colensoi at Wakefield was not pollen-limited. Data from other Peraxilla sites also suggest pollination failure. Our study suggests that the conservation of Peraxilla species will require maintenance of native bird populations. Tuis and Bellbirds are important pollinators and dispersers of many other New Zealand plants, and the breakdown of such mutualistic relationships may have widespread consequences.     

Halton iterative partitioning: spatially balanced sampling via partitioning

A new spatially balanced sampling design for environmental surveys is introduced, called Halton iterative partitioning (HIP). The design draws sample locations that are well spread over the study area. Spatially balanced designs are known to be efficient when surveying natural resources because nearby locations tend to be similar. The HIP design uses structural properties of the Halton sequence to partition a resource into nested boxes. Sample locations are then drawn from specific boxes in the partition to ensure spatial diversity. The method is conceptually simple and computationally efficient, draws spatially balanced samples in two or more dimensions and uses standard design-based estimators. Furthermore, HIP samples have an implicit ordering that can be used to define spatially balanced over-samples. This feature is particularly useful when sampling natural resources because we can dynamically add spatially balanced units from the over-sample to the sample as non-target or inaccessible units are discovered. We use several populations to show that HIP sampling draws spatially balanced samples and gives precise estimates of population totals.     

Nitrate controls methyl mercury production in a streambed bioreactor

Organic carbon bioreactors provide low-cost, passive treatment of a variety of environmental contaminants but can have undesirable side effects in some cases. This study examines the production of methyl mercury (MeHg) in a streambed bioreactor consisting of 40 m3 of wood chips and designed to treat nitrate (NO?) in an agricultural drainage ditch in southern Ontario (Avon site). The reactor provides 30 to 100% removal of NO?-N concentrations of 0.6 to 4.4 mg L(-1), but sulfate (SO?(2-)) reducing conditions develop when NO? removal is complete. Sulfate reducing conditions are known to stimulation the production of MeHg in natural wetlands. Over one seasonal cycle, effluent MeHg ranged from 0.01 to 0.76 ng L(-1) and total Hg ranged from 1.3 to 3.4 ng L(-1). During all sampling events when reducing conditions were only sufficient to promote NO?(-) reduction (or denitrification) ( = 5, late fall 2009, winter 2010), MeHg concentrations decreased in the reactor and it was a net sink for MeHg (mean flux of -5.1 μg m(-2) yr(-1)). During all sampling events when SO?(2-) reducing conditions were present ( = 6, early fall 2009, spring 2010), MeHg concentrations increased in the reactor and it was a strong source of MeHg to the stream (mean flux of 15.2 μg m(-2) yr(-1)). Total Hg was consistently removed in the reactor (10 of 11 sampling events) and was correlated to the total suspended sediment load ( r2 = 0.69), which was removed in the reactor by physical filtration. This study shows that organic carbon bioreactors can be a strong source of MeHg production when SO?(2-) reducing conditions develop; however, maintaining NO?-N concentrations > 0.5 mg L suppresses the production of MeHg.     

Evolution of a stream ecosystem in recently deglaciated terrain

Climate change and associated glacial recession create new stream habitat that leads to the assembly of new riverine communities through primary succession. However, there are still very few studies of the patterns and processes of community assembly during primary succession for stream ecosystems. We illustrate the rapidity with which biotic communities can colonize and establish in recently formed streams by examining Stonefly Creek in Glacier Bay, Alaska (USA), which began to emerge from a remnant glacial ice mass between 1976 and 1979. By 2002, 57 macroinvertebrate and 27 microcrustacea species had become established. Within 10 years of the stream's formation, pink salmon and Dolly Varden charr colonized, followed by other fish species, including juvenile red and silver salmon, Coast Range sculpin, and sticklebacks. Stable-isotope analyses indicate that marine-derived nitrogen from the decay of salmon carcasses was substantially assimilated within the aquatic food web by 2004. The findings from Stonefly Creek are compared with those from a long-term study of a similarly formed but older stream (12 km to the northeast) to examine possible similarities in macroinvertebrate community and biological trait composition between streams at similar stages of development. Macroinvertebrate community assembly appears to have been initially strongly deterministic owing to low water temperature associated with remnant ice masses. In contrast, microcrustacean community assembly appears to have been more stochastic. However, as stream age and water temperature increased, macroinvertebrate colonization was also more stochastic, and taxonomic similarity between Stonefly Creek and a stream at the same stage of development was <50%. However the most abundant taxa were similar, and functional diversity of the two communities was almost identical. Tolerance is suggested as the major mechanism of community assembly. The rapidity with which salmonids and invertebrate communities have become established across an entire watershed has implications for the conservation of biodiversity in freshwater habitats.     

A Multi‐Agency Nutrient Dataset Used to Estimate Loads,Improve Monitoring Design,and Calibrate Regional Nutrient SPARROW Models1

Saad, David A., Gregory E. Schwarz, Dale M. Robertson, and Nathaniel L. Booth, 2011. A Multi‐Agency Nutrient Dataset Used to Estimate Loads, Improve Monitoring Design, and Calibrate Regional Nutrient SPARROW Models. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):933‐949. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688. 2011.00575.x Abstract: Stream‐loading information was compiled from federal, state, and local agencies, and selected universities as part of an effort to develop regional SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to help describe the distribution, sources, and transport of nutrients in streams throughout much of the United States. After screening, 2,739 sites, sampled by 73 agencies, were identified as having suitable data for calculating long‐term mean annual nutrient loads required for SPARROW model calibration. These sites had a wide range in nutrient concentrations, loads, and yields, and environmental characteristics in their basins. An analysis of the accuracy in load estimates relative to site attributes indicated that accuracy in loads improve with increases in the number of observations, the proportion of uncensored data, and the variability in flow on observation days, whereas accuracy declines with increases in the root mean square error of the water‐quality model, the flow‐bias ratio, the number of days between samples, the variability in daily streamflow for the prediction period, and if the load estimate has been detrended. Based on compiled data, all areas of the country had recent declines in the number of sites with sufficient water‐quality data to compute accurate annual loads and support regional modeling analyses. These declines were caused by decreases in the number of sites being sampled and data not being entered in readily accessible databases.     

Movements and wintering areas of breeding age Thick-billed Murre <Emphasis Type="Italic">Uria lomvia</Emphasis> from two colonies in Nunavut,Canada

The non-breeding movements of marine birds were poorly known until recently, but this information is essential to understanding the risk to different geographical populations from events on the wintering grounds. We tracked the migration routes and wintering areas of Thick-billed Murre Uria lomvia from two breeding colonies in eastern Canada: Coats Island in northern Hudson Bay and The Minarets, Baffin Island, during the period August 2007–May 2008 using geolocation loggers. Birds from The Minarets moved south rapidly post-breeding and wintered principally off Newfoundland and southern Labrador, or between Newfoundland and southern Greenland, remaining south of 55°N until at least the spring equinox. Those from Coats Island remained in Hudson Bay until at least mid-November, after which they moved rapidly through Hudson Strait to winter in southern Davis Strait and the northern Labrador Sea, mostly north of 55°N. Many individuals stayed throughout the winter in areas of heavy ice cover. Adults from the two colonies appear to be completely segregated in winter and those from Coats Island probably did not enter the area of the winter hunt in Newfoundland. Unexpectedly, some birds from The Minarets wintered in waters beyond the continental slope and outside the distribution of pack ice, demonstrating that particular individuals can be wholly pelagic throughout the winter. Coats Island birds returned through Hudson Strait as soon as open water areas became available in spring. Their sojourn in Hudson Bay coincided very closely with the occurrence of areas with <90% ice cover. In spite of the relatively large error in positions obtained from geolocation loggers, our results demonstrated the value of these devices by uncovering a number of previously unknown aspects of Thick-billed Murre non-breeding ecology in the Northwest Atlantic. Comparison of the non-breeding ecology based on SST experienced in winter show that the winter niche is broader than hitherto assumed, demonstrating that separate populations may experience different selection in the face of climate change.     

Increases in surgeonfish populations after mass mortality of the sea urchinDiadema antillarum in Panamá indicate food limitation

In 1983/1984,Diadema antillarum suffered mass mortalities throughout its West Atlantic range. Its populations were reduced by 95% and subsequently have failed to recover. These die-offs led to sustained increases in the abundance of soft algae, including types eaten by herbivorous reef fishes. I monitored adult populations of three herbivorous surgeonfishes (Acanthurus coeruleus, A. chirurugus andA. bahianus) between 1978 and 1990, and the recruitment of their pelagic juveniles between 1979 and 1989, on six patch reefs in Panamá. Adult populations ofA. coeruleus andA. chirurgus, which largely restrict their feeding to reef substrata, increased by averages of 250 and 160%, respectively, after the die-off ofD. antillarum in 1983. No increases occurred in the adult populations ofA. bahianus, which often feeds in off-reef habitats unaffected byD. antillarum. Average annual levels of juvenile recruitment of all three surgeonfishes did not differ before and after the die-off. These results support the hypothesis that adult populations of two herbivorous fishes that are strongly reliant on reef algae for food previously were limited by competition withD. antillarum.     

Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Tropical and Temperate Agriculture: The need for a Full-Cost accounting of Global Warming Potentials

Agriculture's contribution to radiative forcing is principally through its historical release of carbon in soil and vegetation to the atmosphere and through its contemporary release of nitrous oxide (N_2O) and methane (CHM₄). The sequestration of soil carbon in soils now depleted in soil organic matter is a well-known strategy for mitigating the buildup of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Less well-recognized are other mitigation potentials. A full-cost accounting of the effects of agriculture on greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to quantify the relative importance of all mitigation options. Such an analysis shows nitrogen fertilizer, agricultural liming, fuel use, N_2O emissions, and CH₄ fluxes to have additional significant potential for mitigation. By evaluating all sources in terms of their global warming potential it becomes possible to directly evaluate greenhouse policy options for agriculture. A comparison of temperate and tropical systems illustrates some of these options.