Integrated modelling of climate control and air pollution: Methodology and results from one-way coupling of an energy–environment–economy (E3MG) and atmospheric chemistry model (p-TOMCAT) in decarbonising scenarios for Mexico to 2050

This paper reports the methodology and results of an one-way coupling of the E3 Model at the Global level (E3MG) model to the global atmospheric chemistry model, p-TOMCAT, to assess the effects on the concentrations of atmospheric gases over Mexico of a low-GHG scenario compared to an alternative reference case with higher use of fossil fuels. The paper covers the data and methods, changes in atmospheric gas concentrations, the macroeconomic effects of the policies, and the outcome for pollution. The results suggest that in the conditions of underemployment in Mexico, substantial investment in low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles, heat pumps and geo-thermal power, could improve employment prospects, maintain growth, as well as reduce some of the risks associated with prospective falls in oil revenues. The concentrations of low-level ozone, both for Mexico-only and global decarbonisation scenarios relative to the original reference case, show appreciable reductions, sufficient to bring concentrations close to the WHO guideline levels. An indication is given of the potential scale of the benefits on human health in Mexico City.     

A quantitative description of vehicle exhaust particle size distributions in a highway tunnel

During the period May 18-May 22, 1999, a comprehensive study was conducted in the Tuscarora Mountain Tunnel on the Pennsylvania Turnpike to measure real-world motor-vehicle emissions. As part of this study, size distributions of particle emissions were determined using a scanning mobility particle sizer. Each measured size distribution consisted of two modes: a nucleation mode with midpoint diameter less than 20 nm and an accumulation mode with midpoint diameter less than 100 nm. The nucleation and accumulation components in some distributions also exhibited second maxima, which implies that such particle size distributions are superpositions of two particle size distributions. This hypothesis was utilized in fitting the particle size distributions that exhibited second maxima with four lognormal distributions, two for the nucleation mode and two for the accumulation mode. The fitting assumed that the observed particle size distribution was a combination of two bimodal log-normal distributions, one attributed to the heavy-duty diesel (HDD) vehicles and another attributed either to a different class of HDD vehicles or to the light-duty spark ignition vehicles. Based on this method, estimated particle production rates were 1.8 x 10(13) and 2.8 x 10(14) particles/vehicle-km for light-duty spark ignition and HDD vehicles, respectively, which agreed with independently obtained estimates.     

Sorption of carbon tetrachloride,ethylene dibromide,and trichloroethylene on soil and clay

The sorption of carbon tetrachloride, ethylene dibromide, and trichloroethylene in two silty clay loam soils and aluminium (Al³⁺) or calcium (Ca²⁺) saturated montmorillonite clay was studied. When the adsorbents were exposed to environmental levels of these chemicals (10 to 1000 ppb in water) the amounts of each of the chemicals sorbed were 6% or less of that available except for a 17% sorption of trichloroethylene by Al-saturated clay. In the case of the Ca-saturated clay, there was no apparent sorption of carbon tetrachloride or trichloroethylene. When soil sorption was normalized based on the soil organic carbon content (K _oc) a correlation was found between the K _oc, water solubility, and octanol/water partitioning coefficients of the chemicals. However, carbon tetrachloride did not behave according to with the predicted relationships.     

DISSOLVED HEAVY METALS IN SHALLOW GROUND WATER IN A SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN URBAN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The occurrence of dissolved heavy metal concentrations in shallow ground water were measured at 126 sites within an urban watershed in southeastern Michigan. A total of 1,140 samples were collected from the first saturated zone, and the mean concentrations of 11 heavy metals (arsenic, barium, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel, selenium, silver, and zinc) were obtained and compared to their corresponding mean concentrations within surface soil. The results suggest that former and current land use processes have resulted in significant adverse impacts on the study region. Levels of Cr 20 to 30 times the maximum contaminant level (MCL) have been detected in the ground water beneath industrial sites. In addition, Cd and Pb have been found at levels exceeding their MCLs where surface soils are clay‐rich, and in sandy soils at more than 10 times their MCLs. The high levels of Cr in ground water strongly suggest that the chromium is in a hexavalent form, and this likelihood is supported by current studies. Given the hydraulic connection between the watershed's surface waters and the Great Lakes, these findings raise significant ecological and public health concerns.     

DNA Changes in Tissues Entrapped in Plant Resins (the Precursors of Amber)

 There have been many reports characterizing DNA from amber, which is a fossil version of plant resin. Here we report an investigation of the effects of plant resin (from Pseudotsuga menziesii) and drying conditions on the preservation of DNA in biological tissues. We examined the degree of degradation of the DNA by agarose gel electrophoresis of extracted DNA, by polymerase chain reaction, and by DNA sequencing. The plant resin alone appeared to cause little or no damage to DNA. Tissue immersed in plant resin that dried rapidly (exposed to sunlight) contained DNA with little apparent damage. Tissue immersed in the resin that was dried slowly (in shade without sunlight) contained DNA with some degradation (3.5% nucleotide changes). The tissue that was immersed in the resin that was constantly hydrated (by immersion in water) yielded DNA that was severely damaged (50–62% nucleotide changes). Transversions outnumbered transitions in these samples by a ratio of 1.4 : 1. A piece of Baltic amber immersed in water for 5 days appeared to be impervious to the water. Thus amber inclusions that initially dried rapidly have the potential to yield undamaged DNA. Those that dried slowly may contain damaged DNA and may be unsuitable for phylogenetic and other studies. Received: 23 March 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 16 September 1999     

Reproductive isolation among morphotypes of the Atlantic seastar species<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Zoroaster fulgens</Emphasis> (Asteroidea: Echinodermata)

Zoroaster fulgens is a slope-dwelling seastar species that is distributed throughout the Atlantic Ocean. Studies into the population structure and systematics of marine animals have increasingly found that species with a reported cosmopolitan distribution are, in fact, collections of closely related cryptic or sibling species. In the Porcupine Seabight, three morphotypes of Z. fulgens can be found that have a distribution that is stratified by depth. This study investigates the genetic divergence between these morphotypes using sections of the cytochrome oxidase 1 (COI) and 16S regions of the mitochondrial genome. Bathymetrically separated morphotypes of Z. fulgens are reproductively isolated over distances of approximately 1 km while gene flow occurs among morphotypes, along isobaths, over distances of approximately 900 km. Reproductive isolation on the continental slope may have occurred as a result of selection exerted by gradients of depth-correlated physical factors, such as pressure and temperature. However, allopatric speciation with subsequent range expansion may also explain the observed patterns of genetic divergence. Further investigation of radiation within this group may provide important information on the evolution of slope species. Taxonomic revision of the genus is required.Communicated by J.P. Thorpe, Port Erin     

The relationship between adaptation and mitigation in managing climate change risks: a regional response from North Central Victoria,Australia

This two-part paper considers the complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in managing the risks associated with the enhanced greenhouse effect. Part one reviews the application of risk management methods to climate change assessments. Formal investigations of the enhanced greenhouse effect have produced three generations of risk assessment. The first led to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), First Assessment Report and subsequent drafting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The second investigated the impacts of unmitigated climate change in the Second and Third IPCC Assessment Reports. The third generation, currently underway, is investigating how risk management options can be prioritised and implemented. Mitigation and adaptation have two main areas of complementarity. Firstly, they each manage different components of future climate-related risk. Mitigation reduces the number and magnitude of potential climate hazards, reducing the most severe changes first. Adaptation increases the ability to cope with climate hazards by reducing system sensitivity or by reducing the consequent level of harm. Secondly, they manage risks at different extremes of the potential range of future climate change. Adaptation works best with changes of lesser magnitude at the lower end of the potential range. Where there is sufficient adaptive capacity, adaptation improves the ability of a system to cope with increasingly larger changes over time. By moving from uncontrolled emissions towards stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mitigation limits the upper part of the range. Different activities have various blends of adaptive and mitigative capacity. In some cases, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity may lead to large residual climate risks; in other cases, a large adaptive capacity may mean that residual risks are small or non-existent. Mitigative and adaptive capacity do not share the same scale: adaptive capacity is expressed locally, whereas mitigative capacity is different for each activity and location but needs to be aggregated at the global scale to properly assess its potential benefits in reducing climate hazards. This can be seen as a demand for mitigation, which can be exercised at the local scale through exercising mitigative capacity. Part two of the paper deals with the situation where regional bodies aim to maximise the benefits of managing climate risks by integrating adaptation and mitigation measures at their various scales of operation. In north central Victoria, Australia, adaptation and mitigation are being jointly managed by a greenhouse consortium and a catchment management authority. Several related studies investigating large-scale revegetation are used to show how climate change impacts and sequestration measures affect soil, salt and carbon fluxes in the landscape. These studies show that trade-offs between these interactions will have to be carefully managed to maximise their relative benefits. The paper concludes that when managing climate change risks, there are many instances where adaptation and mitigation can be integrated at the operational level. However, significant gaps between our understanding of the benefits of adaptation and mitigation between local and global scales remain. Some of these may be addressed by matching demands for mitigation (for activities and locations where adaptive capacity will be exceeded) with the ability to supply that demand through localised mitigative capacity by means of globally integrated mechanisms.