Receptor Modeling Applied to Patterns in Space (RMAPS)Part III–Apportionment of Airborne Particulate Sulfur in Western Washington State

Abstract

Data obtained from 24 of the 31 sites of the Pacific Northwest Regional Visibility Experiment Using Natural Tracers (PREVENT) study were analyzed by the Receptor Model Applied to Patterns in Space (RMAPS) multivariate receptor model. Four spatial patterns were found and interpreted as showing the effect of the coal-fired power plant in Centralia, WA; transport from the northwest; the Se-attle-Tacoma urban area; and transport from the southeast. In Mt. Rainier National Park, up to one-third of the sulfate can be attributed to the Centralia power plant. In the North Cascades National Park, 65-82% of the sulfur is accounted for by transport from Canada. The model was applied separately to sites in the northern and southern sections of the study area. The southern sites were affected only by the Centralia, urban, and southeast transport sources; the northern sites were affected only by the northwest transport, urban, and southeast transport sources. This gave two independent estimates of the normalized source contributions of the urban and southeast transport factors, which had a correlation coefficient of more than 0.90.     

Statistical Considerations in Determining the Health Significance of Constituents of Airborne Particulate Matter

ABSTRACT

Because of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) new ambient air quality standard for fine particles, the need is likely to continue for more detailed scientific investigation of various types of particles and their effects on human health. Epidemiology studies have become the method of choice for investigating health responses to such particles and to other air pollutants in community settings. Health effects have been associated with virtually all of the gaseous criteria pollutants and with the major constituents of airborne particulate matter (PM), including all size fractions less than about 20 gm, inorganic ions, carbonaceous particles, metals, crustal material, and biological aerosols. In many of the more recent studies, multiple pollutants or agents (including weather variables) have been significantly associated with health responses, and various methods have been used to suggest which ones might be the most important. In an ideal situation, classical least-squares regression methods are capable of performing this task. However, in the real world, where most of the pollutants are correlated with one another and have varying degrees of measurement precision and accuracy, such regression results can be misleading. This paper presents some guidelines for dealing with such collinearity and model comparison problems in both single- and multiple-pollutant regressions. These techniques rely on mean effect (attributable risk) rather than statistical significance per se as the preferred indicator of importance for the pollution variables.     

A Review of Treatment Alternatives for Wastes Containing Treatment Technologies For Hazardous Wastes: Part V

The Hazardous and Solid Waste Amendments to the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act direct the Environmental Protection Agency to determine the available treatment technologies for a number of hazardous waste streams, including halogenated organics. If it is determined that existing technology and capacity is sufficient for the safe management of the designated halogenated organic wastes, these wastes will be prohibited from land disposal, effective July 8,1987. This article summarizes the general characteristics and treatment alternatives for this waste category.     

Improved Predictions of Plume Perception with a Human Visual System Model

This paper describes incorporation of a human visual system model in the widely used plume visibility model PLUVUE. The results will be of interest to all involved with siting new sources for which visibility of the plume is a concern and to visibility researchers. The human visual system model allows inclusion of size and shape effects on the perceptibility of a plume. Example calculations are given for 2250- and 1600-MW power plants which show that size and shape effects can reduce the predicted perceptibility by up to a factor of three.     

Modeling of Carbon Monoxide Hot Spots

This paper describes the results of a measurement and modeling study of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations In the proximity of intersections. Analysis for model performance of paired observed and predicted CO concentrations are presented. Two methodologies of pollutant prediction were used: the Intersection Midblock Model (IMM) and a statistical multiple linear regression. The results showed that both methods underpredicted frequently and dispensed results that were site specific. In addition, correlations of IMM predicted concentrations to observed concentrations were poor (typically r² values <0.25). Various explanations for this observation are proposed. The statistical approach exhibited an improved accuracy over that of IMM. However, some of the independent variables used might be difficult to obtain as a routine measurement, and use of a one or two independent parameter model yielded adjusted R² values comparable to the r² values observed with IMM. Based on these results, an Intersection model applicable under a wide range of conditions of traffic, meteorology, and geometry is not available. Research Is needed to develop one, since its use would often be called on in the development of air quality sections of Environmental Assessments or Environmental Impact Statements.     

A Pilot Indoor-Outdoor Study of Organic Particulate Matter and Particulate Mutagenicity

Abstract

Many large metropolitan areas experience elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone pollution during the summertime “smog season”. Local environmental or health agencies often need to make daily air pollution forecasts for public advisories and for input into decisions regarding abatement measures and air quality management. Such forecasts are usually based on statistical relationships between weather conditions and ambient air pollution concentrations. Multivariate linear regression models have been widely used for this purpose, and well-specified regressions can provide reasonable results. However, pollution-weather relationships are typically complex and nonlinear—especially for ozone—properties that might be better captured by neural networks. This study investigates the potential for using neural networks to forecast ozone pollution, as compared to traditional regression models. Multiple regression models and neural networks are examined for a range of cities under different climate and ozone regimes, enabling a comparative study of the two approaches. Model comparison statistics indicate that neural network techniques are somewhat (but not dramatically) better than regression models for daily ozone prediction, and that all types of models are sensitive to different weather-ozone regimes and the role of persistence in aiding predictions.     

The Annual Average: An Alternative to the Second Highest Value as a Measure of Air Quality

It is common practice to use the second highest value both in determining compliance with the once-per-year air quality standards (AQS) and as a measure of air quality in pollutant trend studies and rollback calculations. A study of the variation in the second highest 8 hr carbon monoxide concentration observed at the CAMP stations 1962-72 is presented. It is shown that, for a given annual average, the second highest value can differ by a factor of 2 due to random variation. The annual average is linearly related to the observed average of the second highest value and is shown to be a good predictor of the percent of time the carbon monoxide AQS is exceeded. It is concluded that the annual average, which is less variable and not as greatly influenced by erroneous measurements, is the preferred measure of air quality for trend studies and air quality projections.     

Characterization of Benthic Communities and Physical Habitat in the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced Rivers, California

The primary goal of this study was to characterize physical habitat and benthic communities (macroinvertebrates) in the Stanislaus, Tuolumne and Merced Rivers in California’s San Joaquin Valley in 2003. These rivers have been listed as impaired water bodies (303 (d) list) by the State of California due to the presence of organophosphate (OP) insecticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon, Group A pesticides (i.e., organochlorine pesticides), mercury, or unknown toxicity. Based on 10 instream and riparian physical habitat metrics, total physical habitat scores in the Stanislaus River ranged from 124 to 188 (maximum possible total score is 200). The highest total habitat score was reported at the upstream site. Tuolumne River physical habitat scores ranged from 86 to 167. Various Tuolumne River physical habitat metrics, including total habitat score, increased from downstream to upstream in this river. Merced River physical habitat scores ranged from 121 to 170 with a significant increase in various physical habitat metrics, including total habitat score, reported from downstream to upstream. Channel flow (an instream metric) and bank stability (a riparian metric) were the most important physical habitat metrics influencing the various benthic metrics for all three rivers. Abundance measures of benthic macroinvertebrates (5,100 to 5,400 individuals) were similar among the three rivers in the San Joaquin watershed. Benthic communities in all three rivers were generally dominated by: (1) Baetidae species (mayflies) which are a component of EPT taxa generally considered sensitive to environmental degradation; (2) Chironomidae (midges) which can be either tolerant or sensitive to environmental stressors depending on the species; (3) Ephemerellidae (mayflies) which are considered sensitive to pollution stress; and (4) Naididae (aquatic worms) which are generally considered tolerant to environmental stressors. The presence of 117 taxa in the Stanislaus River, 114 taxa in the Tuolumne River and 96 taxa in the Merced River implies that the benthic communities in these streams are fairly diverse but without a clear definition of benthic community expectations it is unknown if these water bodies are actually impaired.     

Cluster detection using Bayes factors from overparameterized cluster models

In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.